In a nutshell
- The unlocking of TIA tokens may introduce 175 million tokens, which could exacerbate selling pressure and increase volatility.
- The RSI shows a slight improvement in momentum, but it is still near oversold, indicating that the market remains cautious.
- The EMA indicates a bearish trend, and if the selling pressure persists, the price may retrace by 24%.
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Due to a combination of factors, the price of Celestia (TIA) faces significant challenges in the coming days. The upcoming token unlocking event will introduce a large new supply, which could exacerbate selling pressure and increase volatility.
The recent RSI trend indicates a slight improvement in market momentum, but the indicator is still near the oversold region. Additionally, the EMA line continues to signal a bearish trend, suggesting that the price may face resistance in any upward movement, given the impending increase in supply.
TIA token unlocking may impact its price in the coming days
This week is a critical turning point for TIA, as 73.3% of its circulating supply will enter the market. On October 30th, 175 million TIA tokens will be unlocked, valued at approximately $859 million at the current price.
After this large-scale release, TIA will continue to unlock approximately 950,000 tokens per day, steadily expanding its circulating supply over time.
Given that TIA's total supply is 1 billion tokens, the upcoming 175 million tokens represent a significant increase, accounting for approximately 17.5% of the total supply. This sudden influx could have a significant impact on TIA's price, especially in the short term.
If the supply increases significantly without a corresponding increase in demand, it could lead to increased selling pressure, as the recipients of the unlocked tokens may choose to sell. This scenario could result in a price decline, as the market absorbs the sudden increase in circulating tokens.
Celestia RSI rebounds from oversold territory
TIA's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen from 29 the previous day to 31.79, indicating a slight shift in market momentum. The recent upward movement suggests some buying activity, which has eased the downward pressure and signals potential stabilization.
RSI is a momentum oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100, used to measure whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Generally, an RSI below 30 indicates oversold, while above 70 indicates overbought. Currently, TIA's RSI is 31.79, which, although still near the oversold region, suggests that selling pressure may have eased slightly.
Given the upcoming token unlocking, when 175 million TIA tokens will enter the market, the increase in supply could push the RSI back into oversold territory. The influx of tokens may exacerbate selling pressure, further negatively impacting the price.
TIA price forecast: A 24% retracement possible in the future?
Currently, the TIA price is below all four EMAs, indicating a bearish trend. The shorter EMAs crossing below the longer EMAs further strengthens the downward trend.
The separation between the EMAs also suggests that the bearish pressure is increasing, and there is little evidence of any reversal attempts so far.
The blue lines above the current price represent resistance levels around $5.73, $6.50, and $6.89, which are significant hurdles the price needs to overcome in any bullish movement.
On the downside, the immediate support levels are marked in red at $4.68 and $4.47. If the selling pressure persists and the TIA unlocking leads to a price decline, TIA may retrace to $3.72. This would imply a 24% retracement.
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