Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Nanzi (@Assassin_Malvo)
In the early hours of today, BTC surged to 73650 USDT and then retreated, just about 130 USDT away from the high of 73787.1 USDT in March this year. On the other hand, the release of US non-farm data and the interest rate cut in November, a series of important macroeconomic events, are approaching, and the volatility of crypto assets is expected to further increase. The new high of BTC is in sight, with only one step to go. Odaily Planet Daily will sort out the views and arguments on the market outlook.
10x Research: Market narrative shifts, BTC aims for $100,000
10x Research pointed out in its market analysis that with the parabolic growth of ETF demand, BTC will also follow suit, and is expected to reach $101,694 by the end of January 2025. The strong bullish window will continue into the first quarter of 2025.
The narrative no longer positions DeFi as an external alternative to the traditional financial system, but shifts to "digital gold BTC". This framework treats BTC as a permanent, long-term asset in institutional portfolios.
Bitfinex: BTC will break new highs next month
Bitfinex's analysts said that the possibility of Trump winning the presidential election, combined with the historically bullish market conditions, could create a "perfect storm" for price action, and BTC is expected to reach a new historical high next month.
"The confluence of election uncertainty, the 'Trump trade' narrative, and favorable fourth-quarter seasonality factors have created a perfect storm for BTC, regardless of how prices move in the next two weeks before the election, the future will be an exciting period."
The analyst said that although BTC experienced huge volatility due to geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and other macroeconomic issues in the US, the expectation of Trump's possible victory in the November 5 election has led to a sharp rebound in its price.
Options data: $80,000 level is a key price point, selling Calls dominates
According to data from the DeFi derivatives platform Derive, as the US election on November 5 approaches, BTC traders are preparing to deal with increased volatility, with expected price fluctuations of up to 20%.
Derive founder Nick Forster said on Monday: "As we approach a major financial event, the latest trading analysis has revealed some compelling market dynamics insights."
The data shows that the concentration of bets is around the $80,000 BTC strike price, with strong selling of short-term call options as traders use option premiums to prepare for potential price changes.
Forster said: "Selling call options dominates, indicating that traders are strategically collecting premiums, while the focus on the $80,000 target highlights a potential turning point for BTC."
He explained that in the past 24 hours, call options accounted for more than 47%, as traders hope to capitalize on the "premium" brought by election-related volatility. And the different maturity patterns of volatility indicate that traders are preparing for volatility before next week, but are still uncertain about the direction of the price.
VanEck: BTC's performance is positively correlated with Trump's winning probability, and negatively correlated with the US dollar in the long run
VanEck's digital asset research head Matthew Siegel said that BTC's recent rise seems to be related to political changes and global economic concerns. Siegel pointed out that the upcoming US election, changes in money supply, and the international development of BTC mining are factors affecting the recent price trend.
On the impact of the upcoming US presidential election on BTC's price trend, he explained that historically, BTC often reacts to changes in political sentiment, especially when the candidate seen as more supportive of digital assets performs well in opinion polls.
The recent price trend is consistent with the rising probability of Trump, the candidate supportive of cryptocurrencies, winning. Siegel said: "We believe this is a very favorable setup for BTC going into the election. We saw the exact same pattern in 2020, when BTC underperformed and had lower volatility. Once a winner is declared, we'll experience a high-volatility rebound as new buyers enter the market."
He also emphasized the importance of BTC's long-term negative correlation with the US dollar. He added that periods of US dollar weakness often coincide with BTC price increases, as investors seek alternative stores of value. Another key factor he mentioned is the correlation between BTC and the growth of the money supply, especially M2, which tracks the supply of cash and readily available funds. Siegel said that the recent policy adjustments by the Fed have once again accelerated the money supply, reigniting interest in BTC.
DWF Labs co-founder: The market is unstable but the direction is bullish
DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev posted on X: "October (Uptober) is the first month of the bullish cycle from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025. The market is still very unstable, but the direction is positive.
"In my view, the current trends include MEME, chains that correctly launch MEME coin platforms, yield assets, AI, and RWA."
The big one is coming, 7 out of 9 similar historical situations saw an increase
Technical analyst Tony Severino recently stated that BTC is about to experience a major price volatility, as its Bollinger Bands are in one of the tightest formations in history. When the Bollinger Bands are at their tightest levels, it is often referred to as "Bollinger Band Squeeze", indicating low volatility that may lay the foundation for a strong price breakout.
Severino pointed out that BTC's Bollinger Bands, an indicator used to assess its price volatility and determine the trend direction, are in the "tightest three instances in history" within a two-week timeframe.
Historically, this contraction has led to significant price fluctuations in BTC. A similar situation occurred in April 2016, when the Bollinger Bands first contracted significantly. In the following months, BTC price began to rise sharply, marking the start of a bullish trend. Another key example occurred in July 2023, when the Bollinger Bands again reached an extremely tight state. Similar to April 2016, this was followed by a substantial price increase.
It's important to note that while the contraction interval signals the potential for significant volatility, it does not predict the direction of the movement. The outcome could be a substantial increase or a substantial decrease. For example, the similar pattern observed in 2018 led to a significant drop in BTC price.
Historical data shows that BTC has seen an increase in 7 out of 9 contraction intervals.
