In the eventful 2024 filled with traps and hopes, we witnessed the "highlight moment" of the approval of the BTC ETF, with traditional capital led by Wall Street rushing in, and the price of BTC breaking through the previous high to reach a new historical high of $73,000. At the same time, Meme coins, with their subversive absurdity, spontaneity, and dramatic reversals, have become a global sensation in a short period of time due to their viral propagation potential.
However, it is worth noting that the "high FDV, low circulation" institutional coins have made most retail investors hesitant, with the coin price continuing to decline, idealism encountering market skepticism, and ultimately leading to the structural collapse of venture capital companies, causing a serious imbalance in the market structure. It has even been mockingly called "the golden dog you just sold is actually a meme coin! The VC coin you have been defending value investment in has already halved in value".
On the evening of October 30, 2024, LBank hosted a Space themed "Halloween Horror Night: Reviewing the Horror, Bitterness, and Tears of Your Crypto Circle in 2024", mainly discussing topics such as the harrowing investment failure stories in 2024, whether the bull market has truly arrived, and how to discover potential coins, in order to better grasp market opportunities and achieve relatively stable investment in the volatile market.
The following is a live recording of the Space:
1: This year, which investment decision made you feel full of bitterness
Eric: On August 3rd, I experienced a disappointing liquidation and withdrawal from the crypto market. During this year, I had invested in SOL and ORDI and gained certain profits. However, in March 2024, I chose to invest in the institutional projects W and ZKL. At the market bottom, I was too aggressive in leveraging, which ultimately led to liquidation and my account being zeroed out. This event has become one of the most painful experiences in my investment career.
Mr. Bai: Bought when no one cared, sold when everyone was excited.
Bitter, the pain was not understood by anyone, and I still smiled and bought the Ethereum I shouldn't have, occupying a large position, and watched helplessly as others gained. We should have a mentality: even if I lose everything, even if I make money, I won't be proud; this situation is very common, in March 2021 I started to invest regularly, which can be said to be a boring and lonely person. It wasn't until 2023 that I broke even, but then it went up and didn't sell, and it went back down, and I fell into self-doubt. Now, looking back, I have firmly made the right decision, and can only earn the money within my own cognitive range.
Ray: In March and April, I invested in the BTC ecosystem's stablecoin protocol bitSmiley. At the time, bitSmiley was in the leading position in the BTC ecosystem track and had first-mover advantage. Based on the above judgment, I was optimistic about the project and made a purchase. Later, it rose 3-5 times as expected, and bitSmiley's market value also reached $50 million. Affected by the FOMO sentiment, I staked it to Merlin, and as you can see, it was a roller coaster, but at the time, nearly 70% of people made such a decision.
Tianci: I entered the crypto market in 2018, and got involved in NFTs and farming. I used to play a lot of NFTs, which are essentially a fast-paced game, and the projects that come out are basically one in ten thousand. Personally, I tend to take out the principal first and play with the profits.
2: What is the biggest lesson, and how to avoid the pitfall?
Mr. Bai: The biggest competition is the trading mentality, and investment losses are normal. After making a profit, you can't guarantee that you will always hold it. Except for super strong beliefs, altcoins generally rise 3-4 times, and the more they rise, the more you hope they will rise, chasing the rise and killing the fall, but in reality, it is very difficult to implement in trading. I have a few suggestions to share with everyone:
Once a trade is over, it's over, don't let it affect the next decision,
Don't believe anyone;
Don't believe "this time is different";
The strong remain strong, the weak remain weak;
Be well prepared before trading, have faith, desire to make money, and hope to gain rewards.
Champions are not made on the sports field, if you lose, don't give up, go learn, and also need to be prepared for losses.
Eric: 1: Don't go all in; enter the market slowly;
2: Absolutely don't touch contracts or leverage;
3: Get rid of greed and unwillingness;
4: Overcome external opinions and have your own independent thinking ability
Ray: For me, three points:
1: Rational analysis, learn to sell first, don't be too FOMO, compound interest is the best way to make money;
2: Find the strongest narrative, the 80/20 rule, dare to switch positions, and regularly find the most recognized strongest narrative;
3: Focus on emotions, be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.
3: Where will BTC go in the future? Where are the opportunities in the future?
Mr. Bai: The holding sentiment is different, and the attitude towards future development is different. We can judge based on some historical data. From 2013 to 2024, the Q4 season is mostly a bullish market, and the increase is generally around 8%. Now the increase is less than 10%, based on historical data, BTC may reach $100,000. However, in August, when BTC fell below the 200-day moving average, I turned bearish and sold BTC, but I'm not bearish, I stick to the safe side.
Currently, BTC has strong data support, wait for the opportunity to buy back when it corrects. If you have already bought, be patient and hold.
Altcoins may come, from a macro perspective, the US is cutting interest rates and flooding the market, the trend is so. Now the US is vigorously developing AI, just like the development of the Internet during the economic crisis at that time, I firmly believe that the future will be exponential growth. For this, you can layout some AI technology stocks and AI concept assets.
Tianci: The bull market has already arrived, 2 indicators have shown: BTC has returned to the top of the previous bull market, and meme mania, I suggest investing regularly, the future market may break through $100,000, there will be ups and downs in the middle, the bull market will arrive in 2025.
Ray: Whether the bull market comes or not is related to macroeconomic and political factors. Personally, I think the bull is coming,
BTC breaks through $73,000, just one step away from the previous high;
New capital is entering, Wall Street is increasing its holdings;
Policy: Money supply, prices rise when there is flooding;
Trump has a high chance of winning the election;
Fear and Greed Index: High Greed Index indicates the bull market is about to come;
Maintain awe of the market, there may be black swans, patiently wait for the correction to break through.
Eric: I hold a wait-and-see attitude, the probability of betting is relatively small, currently BTC is around the previous high of $70,000, with little upside space. At the same time, this round of rally is strange, the "big pie" is sucking blood. If holding institutional coins, other coins mainly look at whether there will be new money entering. After the ETF is approved, I am not optimistic about the participation of financial institutions, as their behavior is not in line with the "decentralization and fairness" of BTC itself. In comparison, the meme sentiment and BTC value have a matching nature, and their birth is a rebellion against tradition and institutions. In the future investment, it is recommended to participate less in institutional coin investment.
4: How to dig out quality 100x coins?
Mr. Bai: First, you need to determine what type of investor you are, long-term or short-term, and analyze the specific situation. Personally, I am a long-term investor. For an investment target, I dare to buy even if I lose, and I don't easily switch positions or chase the rise and kill the fall. The first element is to see it clearly. In addition, the following two factors are also needed:
Good fundamentals: listed on mainstream exchanges, holding addresses, invested institutions, etc.;
Narrative: innovative token issuance model, buy the leader like ORDI, long-term thinking;
If you are engaged in short-term trading, I suggest you can buy Solana, BTC, and tokens in the BTC ecosystem. You can list the relevant sector data and coin classification, and when different sectors are linked, you can buy the relevant coins for short-term profit. If you participate in meme coin airdrops, you can judge whether to participate based on smart money, heat-related indicators.
Tianci: Personally, I engage in more secondary market operations. If you are making long-term trades, you need to consider factors such as the team background, professionalism, market size and demand, technical innovation, community building and activity. The most important point is to have your own perspective for research. When conducting meme operations, you can follow the hot spots to buy and conduct short-term operations.
Ray: Timeliness, location, and people, these four aspects:
1: The market trend where the project is located, you need to research the market situation and the project, for example, Goat is in the AI+meme track, which is in line with the trend, the market needs a good narrative, and Goat's fair launch method is driven by the underlying innovation of the market;
2: Project background, you can search the team background through Rootdata, and an excellent team itself is a endorsement;
3: Community, operational capabilities, on-chain address numbers, activity, enter the community to see the activity and exchange content, etc.;
4: Narrative, take meme as an example, meme+AI is a new way of token issuance, which is an innovative and fair model.
Eric: Add two points, measure by interest orientation and emotion. Choose your own investment method and don't be influenced by other people's comments.
I personally lean towards long-term, interest-oriented, when SOL dropped to $7, the on-chain data was still not bad, so I bought it crazily, thinking it would have a good increase. When ORDI dropped to around $3, I believe that BRC20 will rise when the bull market comes, and it will bring benefits to the miners, so I hold it and the returns are quite good.
