BTC plummeted , and altcoins collapsed . With the election positive ahead, investors were surprised by the plunge. Why ? What important information did they ignore ?
The following content is compiled by Followin and contains the latest analysis from practitioners .
Phyrex@Phyrex_Ni:
I don’t know why the market fell, but there are indeed many unfavorable factors today, but these factors are not critical.
For example, the financial reports of technology stocks are not very good, and even led to a drop in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. In addition, Coinbase’s financial report is very poor, with a drop of more than 15%, but MSTR only fell by 1.15%, which is even smaller than BTC. Although the core PCE data is not good, it has been expected before and there is nothing new. For the Federal Reserve, this month’s data will not affect the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in November.
It is still too early to say whether Trump will fail in the election, and there are no obvious signs. Although the data from Polymarket today showed that Trump's chance of winning has dropped by 1.4%, he is still 27.8% ahead of Harris. Anyway, the results will be out next week, so just wait and see. From my personal point of view, the impact of inflation data or financial reports on BTC prices will not be too great. Even if BTC has a small correction, I still believe that the climax brought by the election has not yet appeared and it will not end so soon.
Looking back at the BTC data, there has not been much change. It is true that some investors who suffered losses have left the market due to the price drop, but they are not the main part. The largest turnover still comes from short-term profit-making investors, which is also within our expectations. We also said yesterday that the wash below US$70,000 was not sufficient, and there is no harm in washing it more.
The support between $64,000 and $69,000 is still very solid, and there are no problems seen. Earlier investors have no willingness to increase turnover, and the trend has not been disrupted, so it is still worth looking forward to.
https://x.com/Phyrex_Ni/status/1852113540200476759
BroLeonAus:
Since about half a month ago, I have been writing posts about how the crypto is currently overconfident about Trump's victory due to the information cocoon.
No matter how big the gap appears on Polymarket, or even how big the gap appears in public opinion, it does not necessarily indicate the final outcome.
So in my opinion, the DJT plunge before the market last night was the market cashing in on the gains in advance, and the wave of cryptocurrencies led by BTC was obviously part of Trump's deal. Today's pullback was the result of market rationality. Anyway, the fish has been eaten, so why must the tail be eaten? If Harris really wins, won't she have to spit out all the fish?
But from another perspective, it is not necessarily a bad thing for BTC to retreat before the election results come out. If it really holds on until Trump wins, there may really be a wave of upward needles and then a big retreat after the good news lands. It is better to retract the fist and wait for the final result to be determined before punching out with 120% of the force and potential energy. That may be the best opportunity for BTC to break a new high.
https://x.com/BroLeonAus/status/1852181353665826847
Jimmy Mige @CryptosLaowai:
This wave of BTC decline can be understood as the early realization of the election benefits, which were rushed by market participants. Thank you for participating, see you next year!
https://x.com/CryptosLaowai/status/1852158837614100837
Aunt Ai @ai_9684xtpa:
Sure enough, we can’t open champagne at halftime! Two hours ago, Mentougou’s cold wallet transferred out a total of 500 BTC, worth 35.04 million US dollars. Was the plunge affected by this? Currently, Mentougou still has 44,905 BTC left, with a total value of 3.11 billion US dollars.
https://x.com/ai_9684xtpa/status/1852177883374195140
Yu Sanshui @YSI_crypto:
The reference period is 4H. Currently, the price has temporarily stopped falling after falling to the 68950 area, but the next K-bar has not yet appeared in the 68950 support area to confirm the green K-line closing. If this support is broken, the price will directly look down to the 66150 and 65170 areas.
https://x.com/YSI_crypto/status/1852175800856121788
Crypto_Painter@CryptoPainter_X：
BTC has experienced a significant correction, but the holdings do not seem to have been reduced much. Currently, the holdings have dropped from the highest level of 43.6 billion US dollars to 42.3 billion US dollars. This correction is not weak, and the holdings of 1.3 billion US dollars have been eliminated; but compared with the holdings of 39 billion at the same price level at the beginning of the year and 37 billion US dollars in July, it is still 30 to 50 billion US dollars higher;
Judging from the holding volume alone, the following situations are possible:
1. Bullish trend: The price fluctuates in the range of 68k~73k for a period of time, and at least $3 billion of positions are eliminated by washing the market, and then a new rise begins, with the goal of breaking through ATH;
2. Bearish trend: Prices continue to fluctuate, but positions have not declined significantly, and remain near the level of more than 40 billion US dollars or even increase, resulting in a heavy long position, which triggers a continuous decline until the position drops to below 38 billion US dollars and stabilizes;
https://x.com/CryptoPainter_X/status/1852144777476931788
Geoff Kendrick (Global Head of Digital Asset Research, Standard Chartered Bank):
Bitcoin prices may see a correction ahead of the U.S. presidential election on November 5, with volatility expected to increase in the coming days. The likelihood of Bitcoin breaking through its all-time high above $73,700 before the U.S. election is decreasing as traders choose to close their positions and take profits before the election.
Geoff Kendrick added that if the Republicans (Trump) win a landslide victory in the U.S. Congress, Bitcoin prices will fluctuate more significantly, which could push Bitcoin to $125,000 by the end of the year and trigger a new round of Altcoin craze.
