BTC breaks below the 70,000 psychological barrier, are you panicked?
Just now in the statistics:
On 10/29, STH sold 232,000 BTC, LTH sold 15,000 BTC
On 10/30, STH sold 251,000 BTC, LTH sold 18,000 BTC
On 10/31, STH sold 207,000 BTC, LTH sold 11,000 BTC
It can be seen that:
1. From 10/28 to 10/30, the main selling pressure came from "short-term profit-taking" positions, and on the 31st, the main selling pressure came from short-term "trapped positions"
2. The 29th and 30th were an accelerated distribution process, including both LTH and STH. By the 31st, the selling pressure began to weaken
3. Continuing to observe the data in the next few days, whether it is a sustained slowdown or an accelerated distribution, can be used as one of the judgments for the short-term
4. Currently, the average cost of STH is around 64,000, as long as it does not break this level, we believe the trend will not change
The recent negative news, the financial reports of tech stocks are indeed not very good, even dragging down Nasdaq and S&P 500, and Coinbase's financial report is very poor, plummeting more than 15%
The core PCE data is not good, but for the Fed, the data for this month will not affect the Fed's monetary policy in November
The most important thing is that today's Polymarket data shows that Trump's winning probability has dropped by 1.4%, but he still leads Harris by 27.8%. If Trump loses, then the black swan is coming
I also reminded everyone about the risks on Wednesday. If BTC breaks a new high soon, it will face a weekly top divergence, which will be disastrous. Today's market has already reflected this, and BTC has also closed the monthly line. From the K-line perspective, BTC is in a downtrend at the 1-hour level, 4-hour level, and just entered a downtrend at the 12-hour level, while the daily level has not yet officially confirmed the downtrend (if it can close above the 70,700 level today, it will not enter a downtrend for the time being). The intraday resistance is 71,700, and the support is 68,300 US dollars
The non-farm payroll data tonight will be highly focused by the market. Everything has two sides, good economic data is good for Harris, but Harris' victory is bad for the market...
There are too many uncertain factors in the market, when you can't understand the market, talk more about the strategy:
Don't rush into altcoins, when will you enter altcoins, or some altcoins may be worth buying only after BTC has completely broken new highs. Don't be anxious, don't FOMO, the one who doesn't get trapped is you
The main focus is still on on-chain research, observing MEME, and observing secondary altcoins. Remember what I said, while playing MEME, you need to prevent the counterattack of VC coins; currently, it seems that VC coins may need to wait until BTC has completely emerged from the chaos before they can make a move
Why maintain the above strategy? The external environment: the US election is approaching, the uncertainty in the financial market is increasing, and the capital in the US stock market is choosing to hedge, which can be seen with the naked eye
BTC is a stock in the US stock market, and it is highly likely to follow the trend of the US stock market; altcoins are the children of BTC, and they are highly likely to follow the trend of BTC; while MEME, as a newborn calf, may have an independent trend and narrative
Everyone must pay special attention in the next few days, because every move the US makes from now on may become a super event that determines the direction of the global market. Tonight at 8:30 pm, the US will release the non-farm payroll data, on the 6th, the US election results will be announced, and on the 8th, the Fed will hold an interest rate decision
After being released from prison last night, CZ talked about his bullish outlook:
Austin: Regarding the prospects of cryptocurrencies by 2025, are you still optimistic about the next year?
CZ: I will try not to give any financial advice, but history does not represent the future, I cannot predict the future, but I can analyze history. From a historical perspective, Bitcoin has experienced very clear four-year cycles. 2013 was a bull market, 2017 was a bull market, and 2012 was actually a recovery year, which many people did not trace back that far. 2016 was a recovery year, and 2017 soared. 2020 was a recovery year, and 2021 was a bull market. This year, it has returned to the vicinity of the previous highs.
So based on the current analysis, 2024 will be a recovery year, and as for what will happen next year, I'm not sure, but in the long run, I'm still very optimistic about the entire industry. I think there are still many things that need to be built, and as more people use cryptocurrencies, their utility value will also increase. In the long run, I remain very optimistic.
I also remain very optimistic about the market, and I hope you are too
The new discussion group has been built! Now we are preparing to reorganize the discussion group, as long as the overall market returns to an uptrend, there will be many opportunities for altcoins to explode. If you want to join the group, please send me a private message, and I will add you to the group!
Number of members: temporarily limited to 50 people, with a focus on spot trading
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