Title: October 2024 Public Opinion Poll
Authors: Justin Slaughter, Dominique Little
Compiled by: Odaily
In the upcoming 2024 US presidential election in November, the influence of cryptocurrencies is becoming increasingly significant and may become a key factor in determining the outcome.
According to the latest poll by Paradigm, 5% of voters view cryptocurrency policy as their primary consideration when voting, and this proportion is more pronounced among young voters and men. Among voters, 20% have already invested in or used cryptocurrencies, and another 15% plan to invest within the next year, indicating a growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies.
The survey results also reveal voters' attitudes towards the two main candidates - Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Although Harris has a slightly higher overall approval rating, the support rates for the two candidates are equal among cryptocurrency holders. This suggests that the voting intentions of cryptocurrency holders may have a significant impact on the election outcome.
It is worth noting that voters' trust in the Republican Party's cryptocurrency policy has increased, which may influence independent voters' voting choices. Furthermore, an increasing number of voters believe that cryptocurrencies will play an important role in the future economy, reflecting a growing awareness of DeFi.
Overall, the rise of cryptocurrencies has not only changed the landscape of the financial market, but is also playing an increasingly important role in the political arena, adding new variables to the upcoming election.
The following is the original content, compiled by Odaily.
Paradigm note: This poll was conducted from October 17 to 22, using the Dynata online panel, with quotas set and weighted by age, gender, education, and race to reflect the likely 2024 November electorate. The sample size was 1,000 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.53%, and an oversample of 247 independent voters with a margin of error of 7.11%.
For political observers, we find that the Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 44% to 43%, 44% of respondents identify as Republican, 42% as Democrat, and Biden's job approval is 41% approve to 59% disapprove. Harris leads Trump nationally 48% to 46%; among independent voters, Harris leads 42% to 30%.
Crypto voters will play a pivotal role in the upcoming November US election.
This is the key takeaway from our October 2024 poll, which is the final comprehensive poll of this election cycle. 5% of voters identify as single-issue crypto voters, and crypto-holding voters are likely to be the key to this seemingly close election. At the same time, American voters' views on cryptocurrencies are also expanding and maturing, with an increasing number of voters seeing cryptocurrencies as an important part of their future lives.
Key Point 1: A quarter of crypto holders consider themselves single-issue voters
We asked the 20% of voters who have purchased cryptocurrencies, "Do you consider the government's cryptocurrency policy to be the most important policy when choosing a candidate?"
Among this group, a quarter (or 5% of all voters) said they are single-issue crypto voters. This includes 11% of 18-34 year old voters, 8% of men, and 7% of non-white voters (including 7% of Black and 8% of Hispanic voters). In key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, where margins are typically 1-2 percentage points, 5% of the vote could be the deciding factor.
Key Point 2: Crypto ownership is expected to continue growing
As of this month, 20% of voters said they have invested in, traded, or used cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum, and another 15% said they are likely to invest in cryptocurrencies within the next year. This proportion rises to 21% and 18% respectively among independent voters. 1% of voters said they have invested in cryptocurrencies for the first time in the past few weeks, including 3% of independent voters.
Key Point 3: Crypto holders remain predominantly young, non-white, and male
29% of men have purchased cryptocurrencies, compared to only 12% of women. Consistent with our March survey, 40% of 18-54 year old men have purchased cryptocurrencies, compared to 16% of 18-34 year old women and 19% of 35-54 year old women. In this survey, the proportion of non-white voters who have purchased cryptocurrencies is 23%, lower than previous surveys, while the proportion of white voters has risen to 19%. This aligns with the demographic characteristics of the key swing voters that the Harris and Trump campaigns are vying for in the final stretch.
Key Point 4: Crypto holders may be the deciding factor in this election
Among all respondents, 48% support Vice President Kamala Harris, and 46% support former President Donald Trump. However, among voters who have purchased cryptocurrencies, the support for the candidates is evenly split at 47% each. Among voters who have not purchased cryptocurrencies, Harris leads 48% to 45%. These shifts are within the margin of error. We know that the number of votes that may decide this election is very small, and the popular vote margin is expected to lean Democratic by about 2-3 percentage points.
Key Point 5: Voters' trust in the Republican Party on cryptocurrency policy has increased
In March, we asked voters, "Which party do you trust more on cryptocurrency?" 25% chose the Democratic Party, 24% chose the Republican Party, 3% chose both, and 49% chose neither. Six months later, when we asked the same question, 30% of voters said they trust the Republican Party more, 24% said they trust the Democratic Party more, 5% chose both, and 41% chose neither. Independent voters' views are still undecided, with 9% trusting the Republican Party, 10% trusting the Democratic Party, and 72% trusting neither.
Key Point 6: Americans are increasingly expecting cryptocurrencies to be part of their future daily lives
When asked whether voters believe cryptocurrencies are a temporary trend or an important part of the long-term economy, 46% of voters and 47% of independent voters believe they will become an important part of the economy. Given that only 20% of voters have purchased cryptocurrencies, these data suggest that tens of millions of voters who have not yet directly purchased cryptocurrencies still view them as an important part of America's future.
Key Point 7: Cryptocurrency holders believe Trump is more favorable to cryptocurrency
We asked voters who have purchased cryptocurrency: "Who do you think would be better for the growth and regulation of cryptocurrency?" 58% of cryptocurrency holders (12% of all voters) believe Trump would be better, while 42% (less than 9% of voters) believe Harris would be better. Further highlighting the complexity of cryptocurrency voters, 7% believe Trump is better but voted for Harris, while 2% believe Harris is better but voted for Trump.
Key Point 8: Voters still have a negative view of the Biden administration's policies on cryptocurrency and technology, but are more positive about Trump or Harris
We asked voters: "Considering the Biden administration's policies on technology and DeFi, do you think these policies are good or bad for American innovation?" 49% of voters said the policies are good, while 51% said they are bad. Among independent voters, the negative view is more pronounced, with 54% saying they are very bad or somewhat bad. Only 11% of voters believe these policies are very good.
We also asked voters about the level of concern that Trump and Harris have for American innovation, and the voters' ratings were both 5.5, with independent voters at 5.1. Overall, voters seem to believe that the Trump and Harris administrations have a more positive attitude towards technology and innovation compared to the Biden administration.
Key Point 9: People's awareness of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is increasing
We asked voters if they had heard of "DeFi", and 53% of American voters said they had heard the term. However, views on DeFi are not yet fully formed, with only 10% of voters having a positive sentiment towards DeFi, 16% having a negative sentiment, and 27% having no opinion. The views of independent voters are almost evenly split, with 11% having a positive view of DeFi, 13% having a negative view, and 30% having no opinion.
