BTC's monthly candle officially closed at 8:00 this morning. October did not disappoint the "Uptober" reputation. After breaking below $60,000 again in early October, it continued to rise, and this time we saw a sustained uptrend.
On October 30th, BTC had a bullish charge night. When the market was hoping to break through the previous high, BTC ended the charge just $130 below the previous high. After two days of narrow range fluctuations at the high, with the release of the PCE data, the market's expectation of Trump's successful presidential election receded, and BTC, US stocks, and gold fell in sync, with Trump's media company even hitting the limit down circuit breaker.
Many investment bank analysts pointed out that if BTC effectively breaks through and stands firmly above $69,000, it would be proof of breaking out of the 8-month oscillation cycle and the start of a new trend. Now, can this view be applicable? Let's see how traders decide.
Technical Analysis Camp
As I said, Bitcoin can test 60-70k (retest) before another bullish rebound, and expect a successful retest and a successful retest can guide another wave of bullish momentum towards 80k
The reference cycle is 4H. Currently, it has fallen to the 68950 area and temporarily stopped the decline, but the next K-line has not yet appeared in the 68950 support area to confirm a green K-line close. If the current support level is broken, it will go directly to the 66150 and 65170 areas.
@laban_li believes that this is the resonance after the deep sea super crab is completed, and this wave of decline is relatively rapid, the trend is still downward, and the left side entry is more risky. You can try with a stop loss, but it is still recommended to enter the right side more stable.
The previously predicted 75k was a prediction 2 months ago, and the 73500 top of this wave is actually not much different, and it is very likely to be the recent small top.
Data Analysis Camp
All exchanges are selling, the spot market supply is relatively firm and obvious, but in the futures market, CME has been selling all the way, and Binance and OKX have seen a significant reduction in supply after the US stock market close, and a small amount of bottom-fishing buying power has begun to appear.
The major option players have entered the market again and continued to be Longing. At 10 a.m., there was a buy order of 1,000 positions for the $85,000 option expiring in March next year, costing about 98 BTC, or $7.1 million, in option premiums.
The $85,000 price level has seen three large-scale Longing by major players since the price of $61,000 in early October, with a cumulative option premium cost of nearly $15 million and 2,000 positions.
Based on the order book analysis, it is believed that there is buying pressure here, and the correction is basically over.
From on-chain data analysis
STH, short-term holder of BTC
LTH, long-term holder of BTC
On 10/29, STH sold 232,000 BTC, LTH sold 15,000 BTC;
On 10/30, STH sold 251,000 BTC, LTH sold 18,000 BTC;
On 10/31, STH sold 207,000 BTC, LTH sold 11,000 BTC;
It can be seen that:
1. The selling pressure from 10/28 to 10/30 mainly came from the "short-term profit-taking" positions, and the selling pressure on 31st mainly came from the short-term "stop-loss positions";
2. The 29th and 30th were an accelerated distribution process, including both LTH and STH. By the 31st, the selling pressure began to weaken.
3. Continuing to observe the data in the next few days, whether it is a sustained slowdown or an accelerated distribution, can be used as one of the bases for short-term judgment.
4. The current average cost of STH is around $64,000, and as long as it does not break this level, we believe the trend remains unchanged.
Macro Analysis Camp
Geopolitics:
The key international geopolitical issue remains the situation between Israel and Iran. Currently, the incident of Netanyahu modifying his son's wedding has occurred, and Iranian leader Khamenei has inspected the border, with both sides posturing. This is a point to watch, but personally, I expect there is unlikely to be an attack before the US election.
Regarding Russia-Ukraine, the US has publicly stated that due to North Korea's deployment of troops to the battlefield, it is very likely that soldiers from a third country will support Ukraine and participate in the Russia-Ukraine war, which is a way for the US to put pressure on Russia.
Regarding North Korea-South Korea, North Korea test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the East Sea, causing regional tensions, and the US publicly condemned it and did not notify it before the test.
Russia-Ukraine is a normalized issue, North Korea-South Korea is a provocative event, and the Israel-Iran situation is the "surprise" that the risk market should be most concerned about currently. Although many are optimistic that Trump can solve these problems, the election has not yet taken place, and even if it does, the transfer of power to Trump will still have to wait until January next year.
Stablecoins:
The on-chain stablecoin market cap increased by $300 million, reaching $177.3 billion, with some of the inflow funds and some of the on-chain funds remaining after leaving the market.
USDT: The official website data shows 120.573 billion, an increase of 0.69 billion compared to yesterday, with a small inflow of funds;
USDC: The data website shows an increase of 2.05%, accompanied by a decrease in trading volume, indicating a possible inflow of funds.
BTC has experienced a volume contraction after the rise of the past two days, the selling pressure has decreased, and the price has stabilized, which may lead to a further breakthrough in the price, which is good news.
Altcoins, although many are shouting that the altcoin season is coming, looking at the trading volume activity, the buyers and sellers are still active, and the volume contraction is not significant, the sentiment is still not optimistic enough.
The optimistic start of altcoins still needs the stabilization of BTC after refreshing the historical high.
