A quick overview of important events this week (10/27-11/02)
- Bitcoin News : With the poor financial performance of Meta and Microsoft, the four major US stock indexes fell simultaneously, and Bitcoin once fell below US$70,000 .
- US yields are rising : Trump's election may cause " resurgence of inflation ", and the 10-year US bond yield has risen to 4.28%.
- U.S. stock returns are expected to decline : RIA Advisors analyzes that the average annual return on U.S. stocks over the next ten years will be only 3% , and the risk of market recession will intensify.
- Yen trend : Japan's Liberal Democratic Party lost the House of Representatives election, causing the yen to hit a three-month low . The market predicted that the Bank of Japan would delay raising interest rates to support the economy, and the risk of yen depreciation increased.
- Gold reaches a record high : The price of gold is approaching a high of US$2,800, becoming a safe haven in the market. Whether Bitcoin will follow the rise has become the focus of the market.
- Binance founder CZ gave a speech in Dubai : CZ gave a public speech for the first time after being imprisoned, revealing his future focus.
- Arthur Hayes published a long article : He believes that China’s economic stimulus policies will eventually cause hot money to flow into the Bitcoin market .
- Vitalik countered doubts : Vitalik Buterin strongly responded to outside criticism of the Ethereum Foundation and defended the foundation's selling of ETH .
Changes in trading market data this week
Sentiments and Sectors
1. Fear and Greed Index
This week's market sentiment indicator rose from 74 (greedy) to 75 (greedy), staying in the (greedy) range throughout the week.
2. Funding rate heat map
This week, the Bitcoin funding rate reached a maximum of 16.79% and a minimum of 8.08% , indicating that the bullish sentiment continues to be strong.
The funding rate heat map shows the changing trend of funding rates for different cryptocurrencies. The color ranges from green with zero rate to yellow with 50% positive rate. Black represents negative rate; the white K-line chart shows the price fluctuation of Bitcoin. , in contrast to the funding rate.
3. Sector performance
According to Artemis data, the average increase in the blockchain sector this week was (1.6 %) , with Memecoin, RWA, and DeFi occupying the top three respectively (10.9%, 6.3%, and 5.5%) .
This week’s gains for Bitcoin and Ethereum were (5.1 %, 3.9%) .
The three worst performing areas were: Data Availability (-7.2%), Gaming (-4.0%), and Utilities and Services (-3.3%) .
market liquidity
1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization and stablecoin supply
Data on the total market capitalization of cryptocurrency this week showed that it rose from US$2.36 trillion to US$2.4 trillion , an increase of US$40 billion, and the total market capitalization increased by approximately 1.7%.
The total stablecoin supply, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased from $162.85 billion to $163.41 billion this week, an increase of $560 million, or approximately 0.34%.
2. Reduction in potential purchasing power within the exchange
Data show that the overall assets of the exchange this week were net outflows.
Bitcoin Technical Indicators
1. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a large net inflow of funds
Bitcoin ETF inflows this week were $2.6284 billion.
2. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin rainbow chart shows that the current price of Bitcoin ( $70,000 ) is in the range from " Consider Buying " to " Consider Fixed Investment ". Between the " considering fixed investment " stage (USD 70,000) and the " special sale " stage (USD 52,000).
3. Bitcoin net profit and loss performance
Bitcoin's realized net profit and loss indicator shows that the current market conditions have recovered, and the proportion of profits and losses is generally similar to that in January this year .
4. Long-term Bitcoin holders reduce their holdings
According to on-chain data , since mid-October, this net position data has gradually turned negative and continued to decline in the following days, suggesting that long-term holders began to significantly reduce their positions, and the current selling has not intensified further. However, the price of Bitcoin has exceeded US$70,000, and the reduction in net positions of futures holders has posed a challenge to the short-term support of the market. If this trend continues, the market may face certain downward pressure. 
5. The purchasing power on the Bitcoin chain is strong
According to on-chain data , changes in the long- and short-term holder structure of Bitcoin this week show an increase in market risk appetite. Market liquidity increases as short-term capital inflows support upward price movements. However, long-term holders' position reduction behavior may add pressure to the market outlook, and it is necessary to observe the continuation of this trend in the coming weeks.
6. Bitcoin contract holdings hit a new high
According to data , Bitcoin contract positions on exchanges showed a steady upward trend this week, rising from US$37.27 billion to US$43.8 billion, and finally fell back to US$41.4 billion , which is still higher than the key level of US$39 billion at the end of March this year. . The overall increase in open interest reflects active leveraged trading activity and shows a significant increase in investor risk appetite.
Important technical indicators of Ethereum
1. Ethereum spot ETF net inflow of funds
The net inflow of Ethereum ETF funds this week was approximately US$4.7 million .
2. Bitcoin Correlation
Data this week shows that the correlation between BTC and ETH and SOL is 0.9 and 0.3 respectively. Compared with last week, the correlation between BTC and SOL has turned from negative (-0.15) to positive correlation (0.30), suggesting that the market's trend towards SOL may be showing signs of recovery.
The correlation between major tokens has generally increased, showing that the market has a higher consensus on the overall trend, especially the strong linkage between BTC, ETH and DOGE.
3.DeFi market total locked position (TVL)
This week’s data shows that the total locked-up volume in the DeFi market increased from US$86.785 billion to US$87.93 billion last week.
Market analysis news this week
1. Bitcoin fell below the 70,000 mark, is the correction over? U.S. stocks collapsed as Meta and Microsoft earnings reports failed to impress investors
U.S. stocks disappointed investors due to poor earnings reports from Meta and Microsoft. All four major indexes fell. Bitcoin was affected and once fell below $70,000. ( continue reading )
2. Taiwan’s labor insurance bankruptcy warning is ringing loudly. Can it achieve a reversal if it embraces Bitcoin?
According to the latest statistics from the Accountant General Office of the Executive Yuan, as of the end of June this year, the hidden liabilities of the central government and local governments have both reached new highs, highlighting the heavy burden on the next generation and bringing the topic of labor insurance bankruptcy to the surface again... If the government embraces Bitcoin, it can be achieved Turnaround? ( continue reading )
3. Is the era of high returns for U.S. stocks over? Analysts warn: Returns over the next decade will be just 3%
Lance Roberts, chief investment strategy at RIA Advisors, wrote on the 25th that the U.S. stock market may face the risk of recession in the next ten years. He used multiple indicators to conduct comprehensive analysis and used chart data to find evidence of an imminent recession. ( continue reading )
4.Arthur Hayes’ 10,000-word article: China’s “epic water release” will eventually cause hot money to flow to Bitcoin
In his latest long article "Let's Go Bitcoin", Arthur Hayes provides an in-depth analysis of China's current economic problems and the reasons behind them, and points out that China's economic stimulus policy may promote Bitcoin in the future. ( continue reading )
5. Vitalik domineering attitude: Show me some respect! The Ethereum Foundation's selling of ETH is not about cutting leeks, but about ensuring operations and development.
At a time when Ethereum and the Ethereum Foundation have been under heavy criticism recently, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin received the highest "KOL attention" on the X platform last week because he published an article about the Ethereum roadmap and A strong rebuttal to the claims of Ethereum critics. ( continue reading )
6. Japan’s parliamentary election: The Liberal Democratic Party suffered a disastrous defeat and the yen hit a three-month low. Is Shigeru Ishiba likely to become the shortest-lived prime minister? Central Bank expected to delay interest rate hike
Japanese stocks strengthened in early trading on Monday after results from Japan's House of Representatives election showed that Japan's ruling coalition failed to win a majority and the yen fell to a three-month low. Nomura Securities analyzed that once Shigeru Ishiba is forced to resign, the future cabinet will adopt more dovish economic policies, causing the central bank to delay raising interest rates and further depreciating the yen. ( continue reading )
7. Wall Street Journal: China’s wealthy flee US$254 billion a year, and cryptocurrencies and art have become regulatory blind spots
The Wall Street Journal reported that as much as $254 billion may have illegally flowed out of China in the year to the end of June this year, far exceeding the capital flight caused by the last real estate market downturn in 2015 and 2016. ( continue reading )
8. Gold is approaching a new high of US$2,800. The US presidential election and war risk aversion... the increase is even greater than that of the S&P 500. Will Bitcoin be next?
The spot price of gold is close to US$2,800, climbing to a historical high of US$2,782.2 per ounce as of writing, with an increase of more than 37% during the year, higher than the 22% increase of the S&P 500 index. The main factors driving the rise in gold prices include the U.S. presidential election, war risk aversion, interest rate cut expectations, and central bank increases in gold reserves. ( continue reading )
9. Highlights of CZ’s speech in Dubai: In fact, he is quite poor in prison. He focuses on three directions in the future. Giggle Academy has no plans to issue coins...
The Binance Blockchain Week Dubai 2024 conference was grandly held in Dubai from October 30 to 31. At this event, what attracted the most attention from the crypto market was CZ’s first public appearance after four months in prison. This article has been compiled for you Highlights of his sharing. ( continue reading )
Cryptocurrency regulatory status in various countries
1. Is USDT likely to be sanctioned by the United States? Wall Street Journal: Prosecutors are investigating Tether...Official refutation: another smear campaign
According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. prosecutors are investigating whether Tether is involved in violations of sanctions and anti-money laundering laws, and accuse USDT of being abused by illegal organizations. In this regard, Tether and its CEO denied any investigation, emphasized that it works closely with law enforcement agencies to prevent illegal uses, and accused the report of being without evidence. ( continue reading )
2. The Hong Kong government promotes financial innovation: the financial industry’s first AI policy guidelines are released and virtual asset tax incentives are extended
Hong Kong is seeking to further consolidate its position as Asia's premier financial center and actively embrace next-generation technologies such as cryptocurrency and AI. The Hong Kong government today released the first policy guidelines for AI applications in the financial industry, allowing different regulatory agencies to formulate through the guidelines Policies to regulate the use of AI, while also proposing plans to extend tax incentives for virtual assets. ( continue reading )
3. Bolivia’s fourth largest bank launches USDT trading and cross-border transfer services: accelerating the development of stablecoins
The South American country of Bolivia is accelerating the adoption of stablecoins. Bisa Bank, Bolivia's fourth largest bank, recently announced the launch of stablecoin services, becoming the first banking institution in the country to provide USDT trading services, allowing customers to use its services to buy, sell and hold. Have USDT and make remittances and cross-border payments. ( continue reading )
According to a statement released by the White House yesterday, President Biden thanked Nigerian President Bola Tinubu for releasing Binance senior Tigran Gambaryan based on humanitarian considerations, and expressed his affirmation of the cooperation between the two parties in the fields of illegal finance and cryptocurrency. Gambaryan was detained for eight months, and U.S. lawmakers wrote to Biden urging immediate rescue action. ( continue reading )
The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Debt Management recommended in a report on Wednesday that privately issued U.S. dollar stablecoins should be replaced by central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to prevent the risk of a run on the stablecoin market from spreading to the broader financial market and the Treasury market in the future. ( continue reading )
Italy's Minister of Economy and Finance publicly defended the government's proposal to significantly increase the cryptocurrency capital gains tax from 26% to 42% at an event on Thursday. He said that digital assets present "very high risks", with 42% Capital gains tax is necessary. ( continue reading )
Market focus next week
11/1 (Friday)
- United States: Average hourly wage in October (month-on-month), forecast 0.3%, previous value 0.4%
- United States: October non-farm payrolls, forecast 106K, previous value 254K
- United States: Unemployment rate in October, forecast 4.1%, previous value 4.1%
- United States: October ISM manufacturing PMI, forecast 47.8, previous value 47.2
- United States: October manufacturing PMI, forecast 47.6, previous value 47.8
11/5 (Tue)
- Australia: November interest rate decision, previous value 4.35%
- United States: US Presidential Elections
- United States: October services PMI, forecast 55.3, previous value 55.2
- United States: October ISM non-manufacturing PMI, forecast 53.3, previous value 54.9
11/6 (Wednesday)
- United States: Crude oil inventories, previous value -0.515M
11/7 (Thursday)
- UK: November interest rate decision, forecast 4.75%, previous value 4.75%
- United States: Initial jobless claims, previous value 216K
11/8 (Friday)
- United States: Interest rate decision, forecast 4.75%, previous value 4.75%
- United States: FOMC Statement
- United States: Federal Reserve Press Conference
Recommended activities
【Mobile Block Gathering in Hong Kong #1】The First Hong Kong and Taiwan Connection: Chinese Community Gathering ( Registration Link )
As the Hong Kong market has attracted friends from all over the world to come to Hong Kong due to many summits, 852 and BlockTempo jointly launched the BlockTempo in Hong Kong to bring together friends and communities in Hong Kong and Taiwan.
This is also the first time that the Mobile Block Gathering is held in Hong Kong, allowing friends from Hong Kong and Taiwan to gather together!
Time: Saturday, November 2
Top 5 popular articles this week
1. Regarding Huawei chip ban, Bitmain may be out of stock by TSMC! All L9 mining machines cannot be produced and delivered
Recently, it was reported that Shuneng Technology, a chip design company owned by Bitmain, the world's largest Bitcoin mining machine manufacturer, was suspected of violating the U.S. chip export ban, acting as a white glove to purchase TSMC chips, and then reselling them to the Chinese technology giant Huawei. This has made Bitmain afraid. Facing the crisis of being cut off by TSMC, it will have a profound impact on the mining industry. ( continue reading )
2. The number of Americans continuing to claim unemployment benefits has reached the highest level in three years, and U.S. bond prices have rebounded. Is the Fed’s interest rate cut in November stable?
Affected by the decrease in the number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits and the rebound in U.S. bond yields, U.S. stocks rose again yesterday. However, looking at China's economy, the upcoming People's Congress in early November will not include economic stimulus policies on the agenda, which may disappoint the market again. ( continue reading )
3. Taiwan’s “eighth wave of housing crackdowns” is coming with more powerful drugs! Experts predict: house prices will definitely explode and fall by 5% every year
In response to the recent central bank's housing crackdown, real estate market expert Li Tongrong believes that the central bank lacks real-time information on housing prices, so it is easy to misjudge the current housing market, and infers that the "eighth wave of housing crackdowns" will definitely come. In addition, investor Internet celebrity Shuai Duoduo said in the program "Go to Your Home After get off work" that house prices will fall by 5% every year in the future, and will fall for three consecutive years. ( continue reading )
4. Bitcoin may shake global finance! Fed warns: Bond market may collapse due to free BTC purchases
According to the Forbes article, in recent years, more and more research has focused on Bitcoin itself and its potential impact on national monetary policies. These research results indicate that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may limit the economic management of central banks. traditional roles. ( continue reading )
5. ETH / BTC The largest whale suspected of selling 20,000 Ethereum coins at a loss, Vitalik rarely expressed confidence
As the ETH/BTC ratio continues to hit a three-and-a-half-year low, bull whale James Fickel has sold 2,000 ETH for three consecutive days and transferred more than $50 million worth of ETH to Coinbase today, suspected of preparing to sell. It is worth mentioning that Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum, rarely replied "The ticker is ETH". Can the decline be reversed? ( continue reading )
