Trump's chances of winning on Polymarket and Kalshi fell 10% from the high point

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Before the US presidential election to be held on Tuesday, all major prediction markets continue to predict that former President Trump has a higher chance of winning than Vice President Harris. However, according to data from ElectionBettingOdds.com, Trump's average probability of winning in the prediction market has decreased by 3.8% in the past week. On Kalshi and Polymarket, Trump's probability of winning has dropped by more than 10% from its historical high. As of the time of writing, Trump's odds on Polymarket have dropped from the high of 71.5% on July 16 to 59.1%, while his odds on Kalshi have dropped from the high of 65.2% on October 29 to the current 55% (Kalshi's prediction market went live on October 4). On Saturday, Trump's probability of winning on Polymarket once dropped to 57.1% (15 percentage points lower than Harris' 42.8% probability), and then rebounded slightly. Election observers are closely watching the early voting results and late polls, one of which showed that Harris is leading among Puerto Ricans in Florida after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe spoke at Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden last week. On Polymarket, Harris is also leading in Wisconsin and Michigan, two swing states seen as key to winning. The prediction market posted on that "Harris is making progress".