According to the latest report from QCP Capital, the interview with Trump on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast was released a week before the election and has received over 32 million views, pushing his odds on Polymarket to over 66%. Although cryptocurrencies have been dubbed the "Trump trade," the correlation between Bitcoin and Trump's odds seems to be weakening, as Bitcoin is currently attempting to break through $70,000 and surpass its July highs. Bitcoin has only risen 8% this month, lower than the average 21%. If the spot price remains at the current level, October this year will be the fourth worst performing month for Bitcoin in the past decade.
As the market awaits the election results next week, it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin can break through $70,000. The report suggests maintaining caution, as the core PCE data on Thursday and the non-farm payroll data on Friday are not expected to have any surprises. Currently, the total open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts across exchanges has reached $27 billion, close to the year's peak. If Bitcoin breaks through $70,000, it could trigger new highs, especially with more leveraged long positions involved.
