Next week's macro outlook: The US election faces the final battle, and the Fed's expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut are almost fully met

avatar
PANews
11-03
This article is machine translated
Show original

PANews reported on November 3 that the final battle of the US election next week may trigger a nuclear-level warning, and the bullets of the US dollar bulls are "fully loaded". With the worst non-farm payrolls in nearly 4 years, the expectation of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week is almost fully priced in. The market focus next week includes the US election, the Fed's interest rate decision, and the Bank of England's interest rate decision. The 2024 US presidential election will begin on Tuesday. Many major polls still show that Trump and Harris are evenly matched. Here are the key macroeconomic market highlights to watch in the coming week:

Monday, final October manufacturing PMI for France/Germany/Eurozone;

Tuesday 09:45, China's Caixin October services PMI;

Wednesday, final October services PMI for France/Germany/Eurozone, September PPI MoM for the Eurozone;

Wednesday 07:50, Bank of Japan releases minutes of September monetary policy meeting;

Wednesday 21:30, US Treasury to announce new quarterly borrowing plans;

Wednesday 22:45, final October S&P Global US services PMI; 23:00, October Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for the US;

Thursday 21:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 2; 23:00, September wholesale sales MoM for the US;

Friday 03:00, Fed announces interest rate decision; 03:30, Fed Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference;

CFTC data shows that hedge funds and managers have accumulated $18 billion in long US dollar positions ahead of the US election. Wall Street strategists generally believe that Trump's promise to impose tariffs will support the US dollar at least in the short term. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said that if Trump wins the election and triggers a stock market rally, investors should consider selling. Conversely, if Harris wins, investors should buy on dips. Citi also believes that the US stock market is ripe for a pullback, and if the Republicans win big, investors should withdraw. UBS believes that if Trump wins, gold prices will reach the $2,900 target faster, while if Harris wins, gold prices may temporarily fall to $2,600-$2,700.

Friday 23:00, preliminary November 1-year inflation rate expectation and preliminary November Michigan consumer sentiment index for the US.

Source
Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
Like
3
Add to Favorites
Comments
1