Author: Alexander Osipovich, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Translated by: zhouzhou, BlockBeats
Editor's Note: This article describes the situation of a French trader who calls himself Théo betting on Trump's victory in the prediction market Polymarket, with bets exceeding $30 million, expecting Trump to win by a large margin. Théo insists that he has no political motives, only to make money, but due to the huge amount of funds, he can hardly withdraw these bets and bears huge risks.
The following is the original content (the original content has been edited for easier reading):
The mysterious person who bet over $30 million on Trump's victory says: "I don't want to manipulate the US election"
This mysterious person who bet over $30 million on Trump's victory hopes that the outside world understands that he has no intention of manipulating the US election. "My only purpose is to make money," said the man who calls himself "Théo" in a Zoom interview with a Wall Street Journal reporter earlier this week. He introduced himself as a Frenchman who has lived in the US before and has worked as a trader at several banks.
Théo's huge bets on Polymarket, a prediction market that is not open to Americans, have attracted widespread attention. Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that on this platform, four accounts systematically bought bets on Trump's victory, raising the odds of Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Blockchain data shows that the funds of these accounts all came from the same cryptocurrency exchange, sparking widespread speculation about the motives of the "Trump whale" behind it.
Last week, Polymarket, a company based in New York, said it had contacted this "Trump whale" and was investigating the bets. The company said the bettor is a French financial industry professional with extensive trading experience.
The shadow of former President Trump is cast on an American flag during a rally in Greenfield, Wisconsin.
Trump's shadow on the American flag: the "whale" in the shadow
Polymarket said in a statement: "Based on the investigation, we understand that this person has taken a directional position based on their personal view of the election. The details of Polymarket's statement are consistent with Théo's self-description, and he confirmed that he has communicated with Polymarket's legal and compliance team.
Currently, election observers are carefully analyzing various data in an attempt to predict the outcome of what is considered the most intense and closest US presidential election in history. Prediction markets, as platforms that allow people to bet on various potential events, have become one of the ways to predict election results. Historical research shows that the candidate with the highest probability of winning in the prediction market before election day usually ends up winning the White House.
However, the emergence of the "Trump whale" has exposed the limitations of the current prediction market: although Polymarket's trading volume has increased significantly this year, the market size is still relatively small and can still be manipulated by a wealthy and clear-cut investor through multi-million dollar bets.
Théo: The mysterious bet of the anonymous whale
After an article about his bet was published on October 18, Théo contacted The Wall Street Journal by email. To prove that he is indeed the "Trump whale" on Polymarket, the newspaper asked him to bet on whether Taylor Swift will announce a pregnancy on the platform - one of the many non-political small bets on the platform. Minutes later, the Polymarket website showed that an account named "Theo4" had indeed placed a small bet on Swift's pregnancy.
In the Zoom call, Théo, wearing a gray Nike sweater and neatly trimmed short beard, spoke English with a slight accent, saying he made the bet decision after analyzing that polls were underestimating Trump's support, denying the speculation that he was trying to create momentum for Trump through the bets.
Théo refused to reveal his real name, and The Wall Street Journal was unable to verify all the details of his story. Although he claims these bets are made with his own funds, their authenticity cannot be determined, nor can his connections with any political organizations or Trump allies be ruled out.
"I absolutely have no political agenda," Théo wrote in his initial email.
Théo said he does not want to reveal his name because his friends and children do not know about his wealth, and he does not want them to know about his bets on Trump. He claims to be an experienced financial investor willing to risk tens of millions of dollars in highly confident trades, but political betting is a new field for him.
Théo said that earlier this year he started paying attention to US poll data and found that many polls in 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump's support. He believes that if Trump exceeds expectations again this year, he will defeat Kamala Harris. Théo also mentioned the "shy Trump supporter effect" - that some voters are unwilling to tell pollsters that they support Trump.
"I know a lot of Americans who will vote for Trump but won't tell you," Théo said dismissively of the adjustments pollsters have made to correct the problems in 2016 and 2020, saying he "hasn't seen any substantive changes."
Théo, the huge bettor on Trump: confidence and worries
Over the past two weeks, Théo has sent dozens of emails to The Wall Street Journal reporter, criticizing what he sees as the mainstream media's pro-Harris polls. In the Zoom call, he claimed that the media supported by the Democratic Party is paving the way for social unrest by hyping the fierce competition in the election, and he expects Trump's overwhelming victory.
Théo said he was surprised by the outside attention to his trades, and he started quietly betting in August, buying millions of dollars worth of Trump's victory contracts under the username Fredi9999. At the time, Trump and Harris's odds on Polymarket were basically even.
To avoid drastic price fluctuations, Théo spread his bets over multiple days. However, as the bet amount increased, Théo noticed that other traders would avoid the quotes when Fredi9999 was buying, making it difficult for him to bet at the ideal price. So in September and October, he created three more accounts to conceal his buying behavior.
If Trump wins the election and wins as overwhelmingly as Théo expects, Théo could potentially earn over $80 million in profits, more than doubling his returns. His main bet is on Trump winning the electoral college, and he has also bet hundreds of millions of dollars on Trump winning the popular vote - a scenario that many observers consider unlikely. In addition, he has also bet on Trump winning in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
If Harris wins the election, Théo could lose the vast majority of his $30 million - a large portion of his liquid assets.
Due to his huge positions on Polymarket, he can hardly close them without impacting the market. According to Polymarket Analytics data, the four "Trump whale" accounts collectively hold about 25% of the Trump electoral college victory contracts and over 40% of the popular vote victory contracts.
Théo admits he is feeling nervous. He is confident in Trump's victory, believing the odds are between 80% and 90%, but is also worried that last-minute news could affect the outcome of the bet.
"There could be surprises at any time," Théo said.
