Odaily星球日报讯 凯投宏观表示，特朗普如果获胜，很可能会在新兴市场引发最初的不利反应，类似于他在 2016 年胜选时的情况。 经济学家 Giulia Bellicoso 说，特朗普 2016 年胜选推高了美国国债收益率和美元，导致新兴市场的金融条件收紧，损害了一些资产。她还说，与 2016 年相比，现在市场对特朗普获胜的预期似乎更高，但如今的关税提案更加极端，美国的财政状况也更糟糕。对新兴市场的长期影响将取决于这些提议在多大程度上成为政策。 凯投宏观认为，特朗普财政计划的大部分内容将被淡化，并怀疑是否所有关税提议都会得到实施。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 凯投宏观表示，特朗普如果获胜，很可能会在新兴市场引发最初的不利反应，类似于他在 2016 年胜选时的情况。经济学家 Giulia Bellicoso 说，特朗普 2016 年胜选推高了美国国债收益率和美元，导致新兴市场的金融条件收紧，损害了一些资产。她还说，与 2016 年相比，现在市场对特朗普获胜的预期似乎更高，但如今的关税提案更加极端，美国的财政状况也更糟糕。对新兴市场的长期影响将取决于这些提议在多大程度上成为政策。凯投宏观认为，特朗普财政计划的大部分内容将被淡化，并怀疑是否所有关税提议都会得到实施。（金十）

机构：特朗普若胜选，很可能对新兴市场造成初步不利反应

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Kaiyuan Macro believes that if Trump wins, it is very likely to trigger an initial adverse reaction in emerging markets, similar to the situation when he won in 2016. Economist Giulia Bellicoso said that Trump's victory in 2016 pushed up US government bond yields and the US dollar, leading to tightening of financial conditions in emerging markets and damaging some assets. She also said that compared to 2016, the market's expectations for Trump's victory now seem higher, but the current tariff proposals are more extreme, and the US fiscal situation is also worse. The long-term impact on emerging markets will depend on the extent to which these proposals become policies. Kaiyuan Macro believes that most of the content of Trump's fiscal plan will be diluted, and doubts whether all the tariff proposals will be implemented.

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Kaiyuan Macro believes that if Trump wins, it is very likely to trigger an initial adverse reaction in emerging markets, similar to the situation when he won in 2016. Economist Giulia Bellicoso said that Trump's victory in 2016 pushed up US bond yields and the US dollar, leading to tightening of financial conditions in emerging markets and damaging some assets. She also said that compared to 2016, the market's expectations for Trump's victory now seem higher, but the current tariff proposals are more extreme, and the US fiscal situation is also worse. The long-term impact on emerging markets will depend on the extent to which these proposals become policies. Kaiyuan Macro believes that most of Trump's fiscal plan will be diluted, and doubts whether all the tariff proposals will be implemented. (Jinshi)

Agency: If Trump wins the election, it is likely to cause an initial adverse reaction to emerging markets

The US dollar may strengthen, and the cyclical and technology sectors may become the main focus of the US stock market.

The US election is heating up, and the market is pricing in Trump's victory. How will global assets change?

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Recently, JPMorgan Chase released a report that emphasizes the potential impact of the US election on tax policy, government debt, and market stability, providing guidance for investors on how to view the election period. JPMorgan Chase analysts explained that the key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will expire in 2025, and Congress may re-examine tax policy, as the non-extension of these measures could significantly increase tax revenue. The report states: "In summary, if the temporary provisions of the TCJA expire, individual tax rates will revert to higher levels, resulting in a 1.8% reduction in after-tax income for all US households, and a 3.1% reduction for the top 1% of income earners." Given this, JPMorgan Chase expects that both parties will likely push for at least a partial extension of the TCJA, but the specific details will depend on the election results. Regarding the national deficit, JPMorgan Chase expects that the proposals of both Trump and Harris will increase it, which could impact bond yields. The report points out: "If all the policy proposals made during the campaign were to become reality (which is unlikely), the deficit could increase by more than $1 trillion over the next 10 years under Harris' leadership, and nearly $4 trillion under Trump's leadership." Although debt concerns are evident, JPMorgan Chase stated that some concerns may be exaggerated. The report explains: "While we believe the debt and deficit trajectory is a risk, some concerns are unfounded. In fact, the current total yield gives investors a second chance." JPMorgan Chase also discussed the possibility of a prolonged or disputed election, noting: "It's hard to say when we'll know who won this election, and we may not have a clear answer for a week or two. If the election is close, we expect to see court challenges and other legal actions by the end of this year. It's also worth noting that the 2022 Electoral Count Reform Act aims to strengthen mechanisms to ensure clear execution of election results." Additionally, the analysts advised investors: "After the new government is confirmed, market volatility tends to decline relatively quickly, and on average, the stock market will rise 12 months after the election. In other words, don't let the election disrupt your plan - the election results won't drive long-term market returns." This week, JPMorgan Chase analysts led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou also predicted that a Trump victory could drive retail investors towards risk assets, potentially pushing up the prices of Bit and Dai in a broader "reflation trade".

JPMorgan Chase: U.S. election results could reshape tax policy, government debt and market stability, bringing about a huge economic shift

Odaily Planet Daily Report: The United States will begin the 2024 presidential election next Tuesday (November 5), and many major polls still show that Trump and Harris are evenly matched. Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that hedge funds and managers have accumulated a $18 billion long position in the US dollar before the US election. Currently, Wall Street strategists generally believe that Trump's promise to impose tariffs will support the US dollar at least in the short term, and hedge funds and other speculative traders expect that the potential impact of the election on the demand for safe-haven assets and the direction of tariffs will lead to a further rebound in the US dollar. The market generally believes that Trump's proposal to lower corporate taxes will benefit corporate profits, and therefore, if he wins, it will boost the US stock market. Harris' potential tax increase policy, on the other hand, is seen as relatively negative for the stock market. However, Bank of America and Citigroup have recently expressed the opposite view. Analyst Marc Chandler said: "Many of the potential positives for next week have already been priced in, so the risk is tilted to the downside. Gold has recently hit a new all-time high, but has failed to break through $2,800. It is worth noting that when the US stock market fell on October 31, gold also experienced a sharp sell-off, almost as if it was being liquidated to meet margin requirements."