Author:@Web3Mario
Summary: There is no doubt that the focus of global attention will be on the US election in the coming week, so I have spent some time carefully reviewing the upcoming timeline and key points, and looking ahead to the subsequent impact. In general, from Tuesday, November 5th, the election results will be announced gradually over the next week, and the progress of the results announcement will continue to affect asset prices during this period.
Due to the different election policies of the states, the results of the US presidential election will be announced over a period of about a week
When chatting with friends, I found that people are not very clear about the pace of the next week. Everyone thinks the results will come out on the evening of November 5th (early morning of November 6th Beijing time), but in fact, due to the different policies of the states in terms of ballot processing, vote counting rules and mail-in ballots, there are differences in the announcement of the results, so first I want to talk about the timeline of the US presidential election. Let's start with the overall election schedule, which is as follows in the coming period:
1. Election Day: The US presidential election is usually held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Voters will vote for the presidential and vice presidential candidates on this day. This is an indirect election, as voters are actually voting for the members of the Electoral College in their state.
2. Electoral College Voting: The US uses the Electoral College system. The number of electors for each state is determined by the number of its members of Congress (House of Representatives + Senators), totaling 538 electoral votes. Most states use the "winner-take-all" rule, where the candidate who wins the popular vote in a state receives all of that state's electoral votes (except for Maine and Nebraska). A presidential candidate needs to win at least 270 electoral votes to win.
3. Formal Electoral College Voting: The electors will vote on the second Monday in December, officially electing the President and Vice President. The voting results will be sealed and submitted to Congress for certification.
4. Congressional Certification: In early January of the following year, the new Congress will convene on January 6th to formally count the Electoral College votes. If there are no objections, the election of the President and Vice President will be confirmed.
5. Presidential Inauguration: The President-elect and Vice President-elect will be sworn in on January 20th, officially becoming the new President and Vice President, beginning their four-year term.
So on next Tuesday, November 5th, most swing states will start voting from 6am and continue until 7pm-9pm. After the polls close, the vote counting process will begin, but due to the different policies of the states, the timing of the results announcement will vary. Here is a summary of the results announcement timing for some of the more critical states:
1. California: California allows a longer period for receiving mail-in ballots, as long as the ballots are postmarked on Election Day and arrive by the specified date, they will be counted. Also, due to the large population of the state and the allowance of more time for counting, California is often one of the last states to announce the final results.
2. Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania usually only starts processing mail-in ballots on Election Day, which slows down the counting process, especially in years with a high volume of mail-in ballots. And as a key swing state, Pennsylvania's vote count is usually highly scrutinized, but the counting process is relatively late. So the final results will be announced a few days after Election Day.
3. Michigan and Wisconsin: These two states also only process mail-in ballots on Election Day, and as swing states, close vote margins will lead to longer counting times to ensure accuracy, usually completed in the late evening of the following day.
4. Nevada: Nevada allows mail-in ballots to arrive several days after Election Day, so the results may be delayed by a few days, especially in a presidential election year with a high volume of ballots.
5. North Carolina: North Carolina allows mail-in ballots to be received up to 9 days after Election Day, as long as they were postmarked on or before Election Day. This means the final results in this state are often delayed. Typically, the results are not announced until about a week later.
You may notice that, apart from California as a Democratic stronghold, most of these are swing states, with Pennsylvania being a critical battleground state. So in fact, the entire game around the election will reach a climax in the few days after the general election.
The House of Representatives election is also very important, as it determines the implementation of the US's future fiscal policy
In addition to the presidential election, the results of the House of Representatives election are also equally important. We know that in the US federal government, the President, the Senate, and the House of Representatives together form the core structure of the separation of powers. The President holds executive power, while the Senate and House of Representatives (collectively known as Congress) hold legislative power. They are independent of each other yet closely related, in order to achieve checks and balances and supervision. The House of Representatives is the lower house of Congress, with the following main powers:
l Legislation: The House of Representatives drafts and votes on bills, completing the legislative function together with the Senate.
l Financial Power: The US Constitution stipulates that all financial and tax legislation must be initiated by the House of Representatives, to ensure that taxpayers have direct representation.
l Impeachment Power: The House of Representatives has the power to bring impeachment charges, and can impeach the President or federal officials, but the trial is held by the Senate.
Therefore, it can be said that the distribution of the House of Representatives determines the difficulty for the President in implementing his economic policies. Presidents whose party does not hold a majority in the House are often referred to as "minority presidents", and generally face great difficulty in passing legislation. The House of Representatives election is held every two years, and in a presidential election year, the House of Representatives election and the presidential election are usually held on the same day, typically the first Tuesday in November of every even-numbered year. On that day, voters will vote for the President and all 435 House of Representatives seats. Therefore, under normal circumstances, the results of the two elections will be announced gradually within a similar time frame, but the specific order may vary. But typically, due to the smaller House districts, the vote counting is faster, so the results are announced a little earlier.
Outlook on the impact of the election results
In our previous article, we have analyzed the economic policies of the two parties. Here is a brief recap: the Democratic Party's Harris side is mainly based on "opportunity economics" as its core economic framework, which can be summarized as increasing government investment and raising taxes to raise the income level of middle-class families in the areas of housing, healthcare, education, and consumer goods. The general market expectation is that Harris's economic policies will further increase the government's fiscal burden, further undermining the credibility of the US dollar, and at the same time, the flood of liquidity will help drive up inflation, but since they are using government intervention to control consumer goods prices, I believe inflation will be on an overall upward trend with gradual acceleration.
As for Trump's economic policies, they can be summarized in three dimensions: first, low domestic tax rates and high tariffs on foreign countries; second, using measures such as interest rate cuts to lower the exchange rate of the US dollar against major manufacturing countries; and third, opposing the new energy industry and advocating for the revitalization of the traditional energy industry. This policy is closely related to the interest group behind it - the blue-collar class in the Rust Belt. Although isolationism and trade protectionist policies have been effective in attacking foreign products and revitalizing the domestic low-end manufacturing industry, considering the current industrial structure of the United States, the implementation of these policies requires time and will be accompanied by relatively high inflationary pressure. Even Trump must consider how to leverage the hegemonic position of the US dollar to alleviate these problems. There are some indications that he may choose to use Bitcoin to achieve this goal, as Trump has repeatedly expressed his concern for the "Bitcoin production capacity of the United States." He advocates ensuring that the remaining Bitcoins will be produced in the United States. Considering his support for traditional energy industries such as oil, stimulating the energy-consuming Bitcoin mining industry can help increase oil demand and add value to the industry. Secondly, Trump's view on Bitcoin has changed significantly during his term, from originally not recognizing the value of Bitcoin to acknowledging its value as a commodity. This change in logic is still related to the pricing power advantage of the US dollar. Since the current liquidity of Bitcoin is mainly maintained through stablecoins pegged to the US dollar, the US dollar actually has control over the pricing of Bitcoin. By recognizing Bitcoin as a commodity and actively promoting this consensus globally, US dollar capital can establish advantages in this field and achieve the harvesting of interests.
Therefore, in summary, I believe that if Harris is elected, the "Trump trade" will quickly disintegrate, and the BTC price will quickly pull back, but will then re-enter a volatile upward phase, and other Altcoin assets of the security token type will be affected by the wealth effect and re-emerge in a bull market, similar to the across-the-board rally after the pandemic flush in 2021. If Trump is re-elected, the BTC price will also experience a "sell the truth" phenomenon in the short term, with some profit-taking operations, but in the subsequent cycle, the BTC price will quickly enter an upward channel, while the Altcoin market will not be as easy to see a full-blown bull market, and will more often see the spillover of the wealth effect brought by the appreciation of BTC, with capital rotating among multiple hot sectors, similar to the market situation at the end of 2023.
Of course, if the elected candidate becomes a "minority president", the situation will become more complex, and we need to continue to pay attention to the game between the two parties on economic policies. Any legislative proposal will go through fierce market competition, and the price volatility will be significantly greater in that case.
