Odaily星球日报讯 凯投宏观表示，如果哈里斯当选美国总统，其政策预计将在很大程度上追随拜登的脚步。 经济学家朱莉娅・贝利科索表示，在这种情况下，美国 10 年期国债收益率将小幅降至 4%，美元将走软，全球股市将继续从人工智能驱动的泡沫中获益。她说：“这反过来将有助于在全球范围内保持强劲的风险偏好，支撑新兴市场资产。”贝利科索补充称，哈里斯担任总统可能对那些有望从“友岸外包”中受益的新兴市场特别有利。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 凯投宏观表示，如果哈里斯当选美国总统，其政策预计将在很大程度上追随拜登的脚步。经济学家朱莉娅・贝利科索表示，在这种情况下，美国 10 年期国债收益率将小幅降至 4%，美元将走软，全球股市将继续从人工智能驱动的泡沫中获益。她说：“这反过来将有助于在全球范围内保持强劲的风险偏好，支撑新兴市场资产。”贝利科索补充称，哈里斯担任总统可能对那些有望从“友岸外包”中受益的新兴市场特别有利。（金十）

凯投宏观：若哈里斯获胜，股市将继续从人工智能驱动的泡沫中获益

According to the <Odaily> report, Kai Investment Macro believes that if Harris is elected as the US president, her policies are expected to largely follow in Biden's footsteps. Economist Julia Belyaeva said that in this case, the US 10-year Treasury yield is expected to decline slightly to 4%, the US dollar will weaken, and global stock markets will continue to benefit from the AI-driven bubble. She said: "This in turn will help maintain a strong risk appetite globally, supporting emerging market assets." Belyaeva added that a Harris presidency may be particularly favorable for emerging markets that are poised to benefit from "friendly offshoring".

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Kai Investment Macro believes that if Harris is elected President of the United States, his policies are expected to largely follow in Biden's footsteps. Economist Julia Belyakova said that in this case, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries will decline slightly to 4%, the US dollar will weaken, and global stock markets will continue to benefit from the AI-driven bubble. She said: "This in turn will help maintain strong risk appetite globally, supporting emerging market assets." Belyakova added that a Harris presidency could be particularly beneficial for emerging markets that are poised to benefit from "friendly offshoring".

Capital Economics: If Harris wins, stocks will continue to benefit from AI-driven bubble

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Kaiyuan Macro believes that if Trump wins, it is very likely to trigger an initial adverse reaction in emerging markets, similar to the situation when he won in 2016. Economist Giulia Bellicoso said that Trump's victory in 2016 pushed up US government bond yields and the US dollar, leading to tightening of financial conditions in emerging markets and damaging some assets. She also said that compared to 2016, the market's expectations for Trump's victory now seem higher, but the current tariff proposals are more extreme, and the US fiscal situation is also worse. The long-term impact on emerging markets will depend on the extent to which these proposals become policies. Kaiyuan Macro believes that most of the content of Trump's fiscal plan will be diluted, and doubts whether all the tariff proposals will be implemented.

Agency: If Trump wins the election, it is likely to cause an initial adverse reaction to emerging markets

According to the report by Forbes, the latest poll results show that the US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris is leading the former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump by a slim margin of 1%, but 10% of voters may change their minds before the election. Furthermore, in the seven key swing states that could determine the final winner of the election, Harris is leading Trump with a support rate of 49% to 48%, while a week ago Trump was leading Harris with a support rate of 50% to 46%.

US poll: Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin of 1%

The 2024 US presidential election is approaching, and the tension in the capital market has reached a critical point, while the cryptocurrency market is even more nerve-wracking. This year, Trump, who has gone through life-and-death crises, is running for election in a high-profile manner, and his bold statement of "making America the capital of cryptocurrencies" has instantly ignited the enthusiasm of the cryptocurrency circle. However, history repeatedly reminds us that subtle changes in policies often become the watershed of the market.
Reviewing the "New Deal" after Roosevelt took office in 1933, the economic rules of the United States were completely reshaped overnight, and a large number of enterprises were forced to adapt to the new policy direction, and the market pattern was reshuffled and reorganized. And this time, the cryptocurrency industry may be...