Author: @Web3 Mario
Over the next week, there is no doubt that global attention will focus on the US election, so I have taken some time to carefully review the upcoming timeline and key points, and to look ahead at the subsequent impact. In general, from Tuesday, November 5, the election results will be announced gradually over the next week, and the progress of the results announcement will continue to affect asset prices during this period.
Due to the different election policies of the states, the announcement of the results of the US presidential election will last about a week
When chatting with friends, I found that people are not very clear about the time rhythm of the next week. Everyone thinks that the results will come out on the evening of November 5 (early morning of November 6 Beijing time), but in fact, due to the different policies of the states on ballot processing, vote counting rules and mail-in ballots, there are differences in the announcement of the results, so I first want to talk about the timeline of the US presidential election. Let's start with the overall election rhythm, which will be as follows in the coming period:
1. Election Day: The US presidential election is usually held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Voters will vote for presidential and vice presidential candidates on this day. This is an indirect election, as voters are actually voting for members of the Electoral College in their state.
2. Electoral College Voting: The US uses the Electoral College system. The number of electors for each state is determined by the number of its members of Congress (House of Representatives + Senators), totaling 538 electoral votes. Most states use the "winner-take-all" rule, meaning that the candidate who wins the popular vote in a state receives all of that state's electoral votes (except for Maine and Nebraska). A presidential candidate needs to win at least 270 electoral votes to win.
3. Formal Electoral College Voting: The electors will vote on the second Monday in December to formally elect the president and vice president. The voting results will be sealed and submitted to Congress for certification.
4. Congressional Certification: In early January of the following year, the new Congress will convene on January 6 to officially count the Electoral College votes. If there are no objections, the election of the president and vice president will be confirmed.
5. Presidential Inauguration: The elected president and vice president will be sworn in on January 20 and begin their four-year term.
So on next Tuesday, November 5, most swing states will start voting from 6am and continue until 7pm-9pm. After the polls close, the vote counting process will begin, but due to the different policies of the states, the announcement of the results will be at different times. Here is a summary of the results announcement for some of the more critical states:
1. California: California allows a longer period for receiving mail-in ballots, as long as the ballots are postmarked on Election Day and arrive within a specified period, they will be counted. Also, due to the large population of the state and the allowance of more time for counting, California is often one of the last states to announce the final results.
2. Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania usually does not start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day, which slows down the counting process, especially in years with a high volume of mail-in ballots. And as a key swing state, or so-called "battleground state", Pennsylvania's vote count is usually highly scrutinized, but the counting process is relatively late. Therefore, the final results will be announced a few days after Election Day.
3. Michigan and Wisconsin: These two states also only process mail-in ballots on Election Day, and as swing states, close vote margins will lead to longer counting times to ensure accuracy, usually not completed until the evening of the following day.
4. Nevada: Nevada allows mail-in ballots to arrive several days after Election Day, so the results may be delayed by a few days, especially in a presidential election year with a large number of ballots.
5. North Carolina: North Carolina allows mail-in ballots to be received up to 9 days after Election Day, as long as they were postmarked on or before Election Day. This means the final results in North Carolina will often be delayed. Typically, the results will not be announced until about a week later.
You may notice that, apart from California as a Democratic stronghold, most of these are swing states, with Pennsylvania being a critical battleground state. Therefore, the entire game around the election will reach a climax in the few days after the general election.
The House of Representatives election is also very important, as it determines the implementation of the US's future fiscal policy
In addition to the presidential election, the results of the House of Representatives election are also equally important. We know that in the US federal government, the president, the Senate, and the House of Representatives together form the core structure of the separation of powers. The president holds executive power, while the Senate and House of Representatives (collectively known as Congress) hold legislative power. These three branches are independent yet closely related, in order to achieve checks and balances and supervision. The House of Representatives is the lower house of Congress and has the following main powers:
l Legislation: The House of Representatives drafts and votes on bills, and together with the Senate, completes the legislative function.
l Fiscal Power: The US Constitution stipulates that all financial and tax legislation must be initiated by the House of Representatives, to ensure that taxpayers have direct representation.
l Impeachment Power: The House of Representatives has the power to bring impeachment charges, and can impeach the president or federal officials, but the trial is held by the Senate.
Therefore, it can be said that the distribution of the House of Representatives determines the difficulty for the president in implementing his economic policies. A president whose party does not have a majority in the House is often referred to as a "minority president", and the difficulty in passing legislation is generally extremely high. The House of Representatives election is held every two years, and in a presidential election year, the House of Representatives election and the presidential election are usually held on the same day, typically the first Tuesday in November of each even-numbered year. On that day, voters will vote for the president and all 435 House of Representatives seats. Therefore, under normal circumstances, the results of the two elections will be announced in a similar time frame, but the specific order may vary. However, in general, due to the smaller House districts and faster vote counting, the House results will be announced earlier.
Outlook on the Subsequent Impact of the Election Results
In previous articles, we have already analyzed the economic policies of the two parties. Here is a brief review: the Democratic Party's Harris side is mainly based on "opportunity economics" as its core economic framework, which can be summarized as increasing government investment and raising taxes to raise the income level of middle-class families in the areas of housing, healthcare, education, and consumer goods. The general market expectation is that Harris's economic policies will further increase the government's fiscal burden and further undermine the credibility of the US dollar, while the liquidity injection will help drive up inflation, but since they are using government intervention to control consumer goods prices, I believe inflation will be on an overall upward trend.
Trump's economic policy can be summarized in three dimensions: first, low domestic tax rates and high tariffs on foreign countries; second, using measures such as interest rate cuts to lower the exchange rate of the US dollar against major manufacturing countries; and third, opposing the new energy industry and supporting the traditional energy industry. This policy is closely related to the interest group behind it - the blue-collar class in the Rust Belt. Although isolationism and trade protectionist policies have been effective in attacking foreign products and reviving the domestic low-end manufacturing industry, considering the current industrial structure of the United States, the implementation of these policies requires time and will be accompanied by relatively high inflationary pressure. Even Trump must consider how to leverage the hegemonic position of the US dollar to alleviate these problems. There are some indications that he may choose to achieve this goal through BTC, as Trump has repeatedly expressed his concern for the "BTC production capacity of the United States." He advocates ensuring that the remaining BTC will be produced in the United States. Considering his support for traditional energy industries such as oil, stimulating the energy-consuming BTC mining industry can help increase oil demand and add value to the industry. Secondly, Trump's view on BTC has changed significantly during his term, from originally not recognizing the value of BTC to acknowledging its value as a commodity. This change in logic is still related to the pricing power advantage of the US dollar. Since the current liquidity of BTC is mainly maintained through stablecoins pegged to the US dollar, the US dollar actually has control over the pricing of BTC. By recognizing BTC as a commodity and actively promoting this consensus globally, US dollar capital can establish advantages in this field and achieve profit harvesting.
Therefore, in summary, I believe that if Harris is elected, the "Trump trade" will quickly disintegrate, and at that time the BTC price will quickly pull back, but will then re-enter a volatile upward stage, and other Altcoin assets of the security token type will be affected by the wealth effect and re-emerge in a bull market, similar to the overall rise after the pandemic easing in 2021. If Trump is re-elected, the BTC price will also experience a "Sell the truth" phenomenon in the short term, with some profit-taking operations, but in the subsequent cycle, the BTC price will quickly enter an upward channel, while the Altcoin market will not be easy to see a comprehensive bull market, but will more often see the wealth effect spillover from the appreciation of BTC, and the funds will rotate among multiple hot sectors, similar to the market situation at the end of 2023.
Of course, if the elected candidate becomes a "minority president", the situation will become more complicated, and we need to continue to pay attention to the game between the two parties on economic policies. Any bill proposed will go through fierce market competition, and the price volatility will be significantly greater at that time.
