After the dawn, history will come.
The fate of Bitcoin and the US presidential election seem to have never been so closely intertwined. Since the end of October, Trump's winning rate on major prediction platforms has been declining, and Bitcoin has also been fluctuating up and down. Related reading: "On the eve of the storm, Trump is 'full of fighting spirit'". As the "hero" and "Bitcoin president" of the crypto circle, if Trump wins the election, how will Bitcoin's price explode? If he loses, what will the crypto circle and Bitcoin look like?
Soldiers will be blocked, and water will be covered by earth.
On the eve of the election day, let's take a look at the predictions of top traders and prepare a comprehensive trading strategy.
How do traders view the future of Bitcoin?
PlanB: BTC is expected to reach $1 million by the end of 2025
PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, and enjoys a high reputation in the crypto industry for his unique asset scarcity and price relationship model. His analysis focuses on the growth potential of Bitcoin's long-term value, especially the price fluctuations after the halving event. His latest forecast points out that if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, the Bitcoin market may usher in an unprecedented price surge. PlanB has constructed a series of monthly timelines to demonstrate the price development of Bitcoin under different market scenarios.
In his forecast a few months ago, PlanB gave specific figures based on his S2F model:
October: A classic bull run month, BTC reaches $70,000. PlanB predicts that Bitcoin price will see a strong surge in October. He believes that the surge in Bitcoin may be driven by increased global market volatility and the recovery of investor confidence, which is also the time when Bitcoin has historically shown price surges.
November: Trump wins the election, Bitcoin price reaches $100,000. If Trump wins the election, PlanB believes that Bitcoin will reach a major turning point. He points out that Trump's inauguration may bring friendly policies towards cryptocurrencies, thereby ending the "war" against cryptocurrencies by the Biden/Harris administration, especially the policy constraints on regulatory officials such as Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren, which will directly push Bitcoin's price to $100,000.
December: Massive inflow of ETF funds, Bitcoin soars to $150,000. PlanB believes that Trump's victory will clear the way for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, and expects a large amount of funds to flow into the market. The inflow of ETFs represents the acceptance and recognition of the mainstream financial market and the trust of investors, further pushing Bitcoin's price to $150,000.
January 2025: The crypto industry returns to the US, Bitcoin rises to $200,000. With the open crypto policy of the Trump administration, a large number of crypto companies and investors may bring their businesses back to the US. PlanB expects this to have a significant market demand effect, pushing Bitcoin's price to $200,000.
February 2025: The "Power Law" team takes profits, the price falls back to $150,000. The correction in February is a prediction of the adjustment in the Bitcoin market. PlanB believes that the profit-taking of investors will lead to a short-term pullback of Bitcoin to $150,000 after reaching a high. However, this adjustment will be temporary and necessary, laying a more stable foundation for the next stage of the rise.
March to May 2025: Bitcoin globalization trend, price breaks through $500,000. Starting from March, PlanB expects Bhutan, Argentina, Dubai and other countries will successively adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, and from April, the US will also launch a Bitcoin strategic reserve under Trump's promotion. Subsequently, in May, he believes that other countries, especially non-EU countries, will join this wave, further pushing Bitcoin to rise to $500,000.
June 2025: AI boosts the price to $600,000. In June, PlanB proposed the hypothesis that artificial intelligence will start to participate in Bitcoin market arbitrage autonomously. He expects that with the participation of AI in the Bitcoin market, this high-frequency trading will further drive the price increase, pushing Bitcoin to break through $600,000.
July to December 2025: FOMO subsides, price reaches $1 million. In the following months, PlanB believes that the market's FOMO sentiment will begin to subside, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $1 million by the end of the year. By then, Bitcoin has not only become a mainstream asset reserve, but also a must-have allocation for global investors.
2026-2027: Market adjustment and bear market. In 2026, PlanB expects Bitcoin's price to correct from $1 million to $500,000, entering the distribution phase, and by 2027, the market will enter a bear market, with Bitcoin's price expected to drop to $200,000.
PlanB summarized that the key to this forecast lies in the scarcity value of Bitcoin. He pointed out that scarcity will become the core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold. PlanB believes that in the next 18 months, Bitcoin's price is expected to experience a leap-forward growth driven by the halving effect and market demand, further consolidating its position as the "digital gold" among global investors.
The key to PlanB's forecast lies in the scarcity value of Bitcoin. He points out that investors like scarcity, and now there are basically 3 choices for scarcity: real estate (S2F 100, market cap $10 trillion), gold (S2F 60, market cap $20 trillion) or Bitcoin (S2F 120, market cap $1 trillion). Therefore, the scarcity of Bitcoin will become the core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold.
PlanB proposed the opposite scenario, that is, if Harris wins, he believes this will represent the "end of Western civilization" and continue to exacerbate the decline of the American empire. He expects that the crypto industry will be further suppressed under the regulation of Gensler and Warren, with more stifling actions, and may even face harsher tax policies, such as the introduction of unrealized capital gains tax. However, he also emphasizes that Bitcoin is not dependent on a specific regulatory environment, and its value driver will still come from the global demand for scarcity.
Alex Krüger: Focus on spot BTC on election night
Argentine economist, trader and consultant Alex Krüger believes that the election result will directly affect the direction of Bitcoin's price:
Trump wins: Bitcoin's year-end target price is $90,000. Krüger estimates that if Trump wins, Bitcoin's price will quickly surge to $90,000 by the end of the year, giving a 55% probability of realization. In this scenario, he predicts that Bitcoin's price will "surge rapidly", because the market has already partially expected the positive impact of Trump's victory on cryptocurrencies. But there is still a certain degree of price underestimation, and the market's rapid response will be reflected shortly after the confirmation of the news.
Harris wins: Bitcoin's year-end target price is $65,000. If Harris wins the election, Bitcoin is expected to first drop slightly and then rise, eventually closing at $65,000. Krüger's probability judgment for this scenario is 45%, and he points out that Harris' inauguration may mean a continuation of existing policies. In this scenario, market volatility is more uncertain, but Krüger believes Bitcoin's price still has support and may continue to rise after fluctuations, although the magnitude will not be as high as expected if Trump is elected.
Krüger emphasized the importance of timing, especially for leveraged investors. He pointed out that if the market confirms Trump's victory, the price of BTC will rise rapidly, while for the case of Harris' victory, the price trend may experience a longer period of volatility. Krüger's personal operation is an unleveraged position (mainly BTC and some tech stocks like Nvidia), and he believes that spot holding should be the main focus, avoiding the volatility risk brought by high leverage.
At the same time, Krüger said that regardless of the election result, he remains optimistic about the US stock market, but the premise is that there will be no "blue sweep" - that is, the Democratic Party wins both the presidency and both houses of Congress. He pointed out that the rise and fall of the stock market will directly affect BTC, as the BTC price is highly correlated with the US stock index. Especially in the scenario of Trump's victory, he expects a more crypto-friendly policy and growth-oriented economic measures to drive the stock market higher, which in turn will benefit BTC.
Currently, Krüger pointed out that the market has partially priced in Trump's victory, but based on various betting data and election models, Trump's probability of winning is still between 50% and 63%. This setting of electoral suspense makes the market not fully digest the possibility of victory, bringing greater "surprise" impact to the election result. For the election night strategy, Krüger said he will mainly hold BTC spot, and take a long position on Solana (SOL) if Trump wins.
The Giver: Post-midterm will see a decline
The Giver is an anonymous veteran investor with rich experience in both buy-side and sell-side financial institutions. He is currently engaged in private equity investments in special situations, providing a different perspective. Compared to Krüger and PlanB, The Giver's strategy is more conservative and focused on the short-term, as he believes the BTC rally driven by the election is more of a temporary phenomenon rather than a long-term trend. This view particularly emphasizes the driving effect of market liquidity and short-term events, and points out that BTC may face a downward adjustment after the election. His specific analysis is:
The driving force behind this BTC rally is the "non-sticky" buyers driven by event-driven, that is, some short-term speculators seeking to hedge election risks, rather than due to the overall trend. These buyers will not hold BTC for the long-term, and once the election dust settles, they may quickly exit the market. Therefore, these funds lack "stickiness", and BTC prices may face selling pressure after the election.
The lackluster performance of Altcoins is related to the concentration of BTC. In his view, the inflow of funds is mainly concentrated on BTC, and has not widely flowed into Altcoins, leading to their poor performance. This indicates that the current capital flow is more based on BTC as a hedging tool, rather than the overall positive sentiment in the crypto market.
The Giver expects that in the coming week, the open interest and positions of BTC futures contracts will continue to be crowded, even reaching new highs. He pointed out that this "right-tail effect" may lead to a short-term surge in BTC prices, but due to the limited market capacity in Q4 2024, it is unlikely to continue into the next year. This short-term effect increases the possibility that BTC prices will peak before the election, but the speculative liquidity behind it is not sufficient to support a long-term bull market.
Based on this judgment, The Giver offered a relatively aggressive investment strategy: based on the current market environment, he suggests going long on BTC and short on other major coins and Altcoins. BTC will test $70,000 before the election day, but will see a mid-term decline regardless of who wins. More related reading:《Analyzing BTC's Price Performance in 2024 from the Trump Effect, Microstrategy Premium to Liquidity Cycle》
Markus: Hedging strategy of going long BTC and short SOL
Markus Thielen is a well-known analyst at Matrixport and 10X Research, who gained a high reputation in the investment community a few months ago due to the high accuracy of his prediction of BTC's $1 trillion market cap.
Markus' latest analysis is based on the latest signal model of 10X Research, which has a hit rate of 73% to 87%, usually realized within 2 weeks to 9 months. He predicts that if BTC's price continues to develop along the historical trend, it may rise 8% in the next two weeks, 13% in one month, 26% in two months, and 40% in three months. Based on this calculation, BTC's price may break through $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach the target of around $140,000 on April 29, 2025.
On the election results, Markus analyzed the impact of different election results on BTC and other crypto assets. If Trump wins, Markus predicts that BTC may rise 5%, and Solana and Ethereum may also see similar gains. He believes that Trump's victory will lead to a more crypto-friendly policy environment, which is expected to drive the market upward.
If Harris wins, BTC may see a decline of around 9%. At the same time, the Democratic Party's tightening of regulatory policies may affect the approval process of other crypto ETFs. For example, the Solana ETF submitted by 3iQ Digital may face delays or even rejections due to the incoming Harris administration. The increased difficulty in approving the Solana ETF will further impact the market demand and price performance of Solana. Therefore, Markus predicts the decline of Solana may be greater than BTC, reaching around 15%.
In this scenario, Markus recommends a strategy of "going long BTC and short Solana" to hedge the uncertainty brought by the election. However, Markus also pointed out that if the election results are delayed or disputed, this will increase the uncertainty in the market, which may lead to increased volatility in BTC.
In the case of disputed election results or a Harris victory leading to a short-term decline in BTC, Markus emphasizes that BTC may still show strong resilience, and therefore advises investors to seize the buying window after the short-term decline in BTC.
From the perspective of the derivatives market and on-chain data, the total amount of BTC held by short-term holders has increased in October, while the amount held by long-term holders has decreased, which usually occurs at important price levels before a breakout. The total open interest of BTC options contracts has soared to $22.5 billion within 2024, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market for BTC. The 25 Delta skew of BTC is at the low end of the annual range (-8% to -10%), suggesting a bullish sentiment.
Thielen also pays special attention to the impact of MicroStrategy's stock performance on BTC prices. He pointed out that MicroStrategy's stock price has risen 33% since October, and the surge in its stock price has had a "coattail effect" on BTC prices. The covering of a large number of short positions has further boosted the bullish sentiment towards BTC.
Standard Chartered Analyst: If Trump Wins, BTC to Reach $125,000 by Year-End
According to an October 25 Cointelegraph report, Standard Chartered bank analyst Geoff Kendrick predicted that if Trump wins the November election, BTC's price could climb to $125,000 before the end of the year.
Kendrick's model shows that on election day (November 5), BTC may stabilize around $73,000. In the case of Trump's victory, Kendrick expects BTC to immediately rise about 4%, and then another 10% in the following days, with the rise in market confidence and the relaxation of the regulatory environment being the main driving forces.
If Harris is elected president, Kendrick's expectations are relatively conservative, predicting that BTC may face selling pressure in the short term, but is expected to stabilize around $75,000 by the end of the year.
At the same time, a research report by another broker, Bernstein, pointed out that if Trump wins the US election in November, Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high later this year, and the price of Bitcoin could reach $90,000 by the fourth quarter. In contrast, if Harris wins, the market may expect tighter regulation, and the BTC price may fluctuate between $30,000 and $40,000.
Who becomes the president, and how will other assets be affected?
Overall, if Harris wins, bullish assets include gold, crude oil, copper, and the US dollar; stocks (including A-shares and US stocks) and Bitcoin (BTC) may come under pressure in the short term, while US Treasuries may show a short-term bearish and long-term bullish trend. At the same time, cryptocurrencies such as Solana (SOL) may also face downward pressure under the expectation of stricter regulation.
If Trump wins, the trading mechanism will be more complex. Bullish asset classes include gold and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, US stocks and the US dollar may see a short-term rise but a medium-term pullback. A-shares may show a short-term bearish and long-term bullish trend, while assets such as crude oil, US Treasuries, and copper may face certain negative impacts. Assets such as Solana, which are more closely associated with traditional crypto regulation, are expected to benefit from policy support, but the degree of benefit may be slightly less than Bitcoin.
US Stocks
If Trump wins, small-cap stocks and certain industries are expected to benefit, especially traditional energy, firearms manufacturing, private prison operators, and small retailers. Due to Trump's tendency towards low taxes and reduced regulation, especially positive for domestic manufacturing, corporate tax cuts and his support for the energy and extraction industries may drive small-cap stocks higher, with the current Russell 2000 index (small-cap benchmark) already reflecting this expectation, rising about 4% since early October.
If Harris is elected, the market tends to focus on her policies to expand healthcare and Medicaid. Healthcare stocks may see a boost, but the overall US stock market may come under pressure. In addition, the US dollar and US Treasuries may strengthen in the short term, and the market remains cautious about potential regulation and corporate tax policies, which may dampen overall market confidence.
US Dollar and Foreign Exchange Market
The expectation of a Trump victory has already been reflected in the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Mexican peso, which is seen as one of the currencies most affected by Trump's immigration policy. Market volatility also increased significantly when Trump's election prospects rose, with the MSCI Latin American Currency Index falling more than 3%, while the US dollar strengthened noticeably after Trump's comments on Mexican goods import tariffs.
If Harris wins, the US dollar may remain relatively strong in the short term, especially as the market expects the Federal Reserve to remain stable in its interest rate decisions. If economic policies drive long-term fiscal stimulus, the US dollar's medium-term volatility may remain moderate, and the pressure on emerging market currencies such as Latin America may ease.
Oil and Copper
If Trump wins, the traditional energy industry (such as oil and fossil fuels) may rise due to Trump's supportive policies. Trump's energy policy tends to reduce regulation, support domestic extraction and fossil fuel use, which will have a positive impact on the relevant markets.
Harris, on the other hand, tends to adopt stricter policies on environmental and climate issues, which may put some medium- and long-term pressure on oil. Metals such as copper may benefit from the expected increase in demand from green infrastructure construction, but the market needs to be cautious about the potential supply chain pressure from tax policies and environmental policies.
US Treasuries
A Trump victory is a short-term positive for US Treasuries, and in the interest rate and bond markets, market analysts say smart money has already started to focus on the bond market. The yield on US Treasuries may rise due to the expectation of Trump's victory, but in the long run, under the influence of fiscal expansion and inflation risks, US Treasuries may face greater selling pressure.
However, if Harris wins, the US Treasury market may perform "short-term bearish and long-term bullish" in the short term, with short-term selling pressure perhaps exacerbated by interest rate expectations or capital shifting to risky assets, but in the long run, as expected inflation declines, it may support bond demand.
Gold
As the most traditional inflation hedge tool, gold seems to continue to rise regardless of who wins. Analysts generally believe that the US government's debt problem will continue to expand and will be diluted through inflation, making gold and Bitcoin the main choices for investors to hedge against inflation. Gold, with its safe-haven properties, will attract investors to hedge against the potential depreciation of the US dollar and economic uncertainty.
However, Standard Chartered Bank analysts point out that gold is more likely to rise if Trump wins, as the market generally expects more fiscal spending after a Trump victory, which will drive inflation in the short term and further increase the demand for gold.
The "Hero" of the Crypto Circle, What Has Trump Done in the Crypto Circle?
At one time, Trump was a staunch opponent of cryptocurrencies. In early 2019, during his presidency, Trump publicly criticized Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, calling them "worthless" and believing that crypto assets could be used as tools for illegal activities. He stated that Bitcoin "is not money" and is highly volatile.
After leaving the White House, Trump continued to hold a reserved attitude in interviews, calling Bitcoin a "scam" and insisting that the US dollar should be the world's only reserve currency. During this period, Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrencies was basically negative. But the NFT craze of 2021 quickly began to influence Trump's views.
The story starts in 2022. At that time, the cryptocurrency market was in a "winter," with many crypto projects on the verge of bankruptcy and market confidence low. It was then that Trump's long-time advisor Bill Zanker appeared in his life, bringing a suggestion that could change Trump's mind: issuing Trump-themed Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs).
Trump expressed unexpected interest in this - however, he did not like the term "NFT," preferring to call them "digital trading cards." Despite the seeming oddity, these cards were highly popular, with each one selling for $99 and being snapped up almost immediately after release. Trump's NFTs not only brought him tens of millions of dollars in revenue, but also introduced him to a new and powerful support group in the crypto community.
As a result, Trump's attitude towards crypto has undergone a complete reversal in these past few years.
On November 1, 2024, the 16th anniversary of the Bitcoin whitepaper release, Trump tweeted his blessings for Bitcoin and stated that if elected, he would end the Harris administration's crackdown on cryptocurrencies, and even called on his supporters to help him realize his vision of "Bitcoin Made in America." At this point, he is no longer an opponent, nor just an observer, but a "presidential candidate" who is a proponent of cryptocurrencies.
The most iconic event was his attendance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, where Trump announced that he would become a staunch supporter of cryptocurrencies, and even clearly understood the biggest pain point of the crypto circle, promising to fire the current SEC chairman Gary Gensler and replace him with a "regulator who understands crypto."
He bluntly stated that "opposing crypto is the wrong policy" and that he will make America a "Bitcoin superpower," hoping to lead the global crypto industry's development through a more friendly regulatory environment. He even praised Bitcoin as the core of the modern economy and said that if Bitcoin wants to "go to the moon" in the future, he hopes America can be its leader.
Trump attends the Bitcoin 2024 conference, source: WSJ
Trump forcefully positioned himself against the Democratic Party's harsh stance on encryption in his speech, particularly contrasting himself with Elizabeth Warren, who is known for her encryption regulation. He also stated that if elected, he would create a "Presidential Crypto Advisory Council", which immediately sparked enthusiastic applause and cheers from the audience. Even more shockingly, he suggested that the market capitalization of Bitcoin could one day surpass that of gold, and openly criticized the Biden-Harris administration's anti-crypto policies.
During the conference, Trump underwent a kind of "public awakening", no longer the former president who was skeptical of cryptocurrencies, but instead emerging as a spirited defender of Bitcoin and the free market. The audience was infected by his change in attitude, viewing him as a "hero" in the crypto community.
Trump attends the Bitcoin 2024 conference, image source The New York Times
Another detail behind this transformation reveals the nuanced connection between Trump and cryptocurrencies. At the conference, he looked at the crypto supporters in the crowd and mentioned that Bitcoin had surged 3900% during his previous presidential term, skyrocketing from less than $1,000 to over $30,000. His remarks not only ignited the entire audience, but also garnered the support of crypto industry giants like Elon Musk, the Winklevoss twins, and a16z founder Marc Andreessen, who all expressed support for his crypto policies.
Beyond Bitcoin itself, Trump has also gradually recognized the important role of Bitcoin mining in US energy security and economic sovereignty. In June 2024, he met with executives from several major Bitcoin mining companies in the US and promised to provide strong policy support for crypto mining activities. He even posted on the Truth Social platform that Bitcoin mining is the "last line of defense" against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and hopes that "all remaining Bitcoins are made in America". In Trump's view, Bitcoin mining is not just an economic activity, but also symbolizes America's will to resist central banks.
In September, Trump purchased a cheeseburger at the Bitcoin-themed bar PubKey in New York using Bitcoin, a move that also pushed the possibility of Bitcoin transitioning from a financial investment to a daily transaction currency, becoming a symbol of his crypto stance.
Trump has also made greater promises to the crypto community, not only publicly stating that he will maintain Bitcoin's strategic reserves, but also planning to pardon Ross Ulbricht, who was sentenced to life in prison for operating a Dark Web platform. Through these radical measures, Trump has successfully positioned himself as the "savior" of the crypto community, promising to protect Bitcoin from excessive government regulation and vowing to make America the global center of cryptocurrencies.
Amid the uncertainty of whether Trump will return to the White House, the future of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market seems to be at a crossroads. In recent years, political turmoil, policy changes, and global economic uncertainty have all driven Bitcoin to new heights. If Trump regains power, his support for cryptocurrencies could undoubtedly trigger a new market frenzy, propelling Bitcoin to new highs and potentially reshaping the financial landscape of the United States.
