Odaily星球日报讯 摩根士丹利的策略师 Michael D Zezas 表示，投资者在美国大选期间的主要目标应该是建立态势感知，避免对大选结果和市场影响的过度自信。投资者可能从调整预期中受益。他表示，预测市场隐含的共和党获胜概率上升，令一些人预计，此次选举将选举日晚上产生一个明确的结果。摩根士丹利认为这种情况有可能发生，但并不是最有可能的情况。两位候选人似乎都不是赢得选举人团选举的明显热门人选，因此可能再现 2020 年长时间计票的情形。鉴于早期投票数据的过往表现不佳，摩根士丹利并不太看重这些数据，并建议不要过度解读市场的短期走势。该公司表示，市场对选举的短期反应往往比较嘈杂，可能无法预示中期趋势。（金十）

摩根士丹利：美国大选不确定性环境下市场应保持谨慎

Odaily Odaily News: Morgan Stanley strategist Michael D Zezas said that the main goal of investors during the US election should be to establish situational awareness and avoid overconfidence in the election results and market impact. Investors may benefit from adjusting their expectations. He said that the increase in the probability of Republican victory implied by the forecast market has led some people to expect that the election will produce a clear result on election night. Morgan Stanley believes that this is possible, but it is not the most likely scenario. Neither candidate appears to be the obvious favorite to win the Electoral College, so the long vote counting in 2020 may reappear. Given the poor performance of early voting data in the past, Morgan Stanley does not attach much importance to this data and advises not to over-interpret the short-term trends of the market. The company said that the market&#39;s short-term reaction to the election tends to be noisy and may not be indicative of medium-term trends. (Jinshi)

Morgan Stanley: Markets should remain cautious amid uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Recently, JPMorgan Chase released a report that emphasizes the potential impact of the US election on tax policy, government debt, and market stability, providing guidance for investors on how to view the election period. JPMorgan Chase analysts explained that the key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will expire in 2025, and Congress may re-examine tax policy, as the non-extension of these measures could significantly increase tax revenue. The report states: "In summary, if the temporary provisions of the TCJA expire, individual tax rates will revert to higher levels, resulting in a 1.8% reduction in after-tax income for all US households, and a 3.1% reduction for the top 1% of income earners." Given this, JPMorgan Chase expects that both parties will likely push for at least a partial extension of the TCJA, but the specific details will depend on the election results. Regarding the national deficit, JPMorgan Chase expects that the proposals of both Trump and Harris will increase it, which could impact bond yields. The report points out: "If all the policy proposals made during the campaign were to become reality (which is unlikely), the deficit could increase by more than $1 trillion over the next 10 years under Harris' leadership, and nearly $4 trillion under Trump's leadership." Although debt concerns are evident, JPMorgan Chase stated that some concerns may be exaggerated. The report explains: "While we believe the debt and deficit trajectory is a risk, some concerns are unfounded. In fact, the current total yield gives investors a second chance." JPMorgan Chase also discussed the possibility of a prolonged or disputed election, noting: "It's hard to say when we'll know who won this election, and we may not have a clear answer for a week or two. If the election is close, we expect to see court challenges and other legal actions by the end of this year. It's also worth noting that the 2022 Electoral Count Reform Act aims to strengthen mechanisms to ensure clear execution of election results." Additionally, the analysts advised investors: "After the new government is confirmed, market volatility tends to decline relatively quickly, and on average, the stock market will rise 12 months after the election. In other words, don't let the election disrupt your plan - the election results won't drive long-term market returns." This week, JPMorgan Chase analysts led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou also predicted that a Trump victory could drive retail investors towards risk assets, potentially pushing up the prices of Bit and Dai in a broader "reflation trade".

JPMorgan Chase: U.S. election results could reshape tax policy, government debt and market stability, bringing about a huge economic shift

<The Possible Three Scenarios of the US Presidential Election>
- The winner may be determined on the same night
- Deadlock in swing states
- Prolonged legal battle amid disputes
- Trump declares victory prematurely, possibly leading to riots
<Did investors take profits last week?>
<The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed has reached 99%>
The US presidential election will officially take place on November 5th local time. The earliest voting areas to close will be parts of Indiana and Kentucky, which will end at 7 AM Taiwan time on November 6th, while the latest will be until 2 AM Taiwan time on November 7th.

Investors are the happiest in this situation: 4 scenarios for the U.S. presidential election; if Trump and He Jinli fight a legal battle, the market may plummet...

Odaily Planet Daily Report: "It is difficult to be pessimistic about gold." On the eve of the US election, the latest research report from JPMorgan Chase gave this assessment. The bank said in the report: "Regardless of who wins, if the gold price pulls back, it will be a good buying opportunity." Currently, gold trading is very active, and if the election results are unexpected in the short term, the market may experience volatility. However, JPMorgan Chase believes that in the long run, gold will still benefit from the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, the purchase by central banks of various countries, and the global trend of currency depreciation. The report stated, "These factors have supported the gold price over the past year, and these driving factors will continue to exist regardless of the outcome of the US election." The report predicts that if the Republican Party wins a comprehensive victory, the gold price is expected to rise 7-10% in the next 1-2 quarters; even in the most conservative scenario - Harris wins and Congress is divided, although there may be a short-term pullback of 2-3%, there is still room for an upward trend afterwards.