The latest poll results show that US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris leads former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump by a narrow margin of 1%, but 10% of voters may change their minds before the election.
Harris currently leads Trump 49% to 48%, but with a few days left before election day, there is still room for the support rate to change, as about 10% of potential voters and 16% of registered voters say they are still weighing their choices. In addition, in the seven key swing states that could decide the final winner, Harris leads Trump 49% to 48%, compared to Trump's 50% to 46% lead over Harris a week ago.
Meanwhile, Mt.Gox, which has been dormant for two months, transferred out 500 bitcoins in two batches around 8:45 this morning, but it is not yet clear whether it is for compensation. Mt.Gox's wallet still has about 44,900 bitcoins worth about $31.1 billion to be paid to creditors.
In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin plummeted sharply this morning, briefly falling below the $70,000 mark. With the US election approaching, market uncertainty has increased, and many investors have chosen to reduce their positions, which not only greatly reduces the likelihood of Bitcoin hitting a new high before the election, but may also trigger market turmoil and lead to a decline in the currency price. As of the time of writing, the price is quoted at $69,628, a drop of more than 4% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
First, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the current price is near the lower band, having made a significant pullback from the upper band. The expansion between the upper and lower bands indicates high market volatility. If the price finds support near the lower band, it may retest the middle band. If it breaks below the lower band support, it may further decline.
Secondly, based on the KDJ indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the three KDJ lines are currently at relatively low levels and are turning upwards, showing a clear rebound signal. If the three lines form a golden cross at the low levels, Bitcoin's price is likely to rebound.
Finally, based on the MACD indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line have formed a death cross at the high levels, indicating that the bearish forces are currently dominant. At the same time, the MACD histogram is also green, further confirming the strength of the bearish forces. If the green MACD histogram continues to expand, the price may continue to decline in the short term.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart
First, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the price has just rebounded from the lower band to near the middle band, but has not yet broken through the middle band. The Bollinger Bands are showing a downward trend, indicating that the current downward pressure still exists. If the price can stabilize effectively above the middle band, it may further test the resistance at the upper band. Otherwise, if it fails to stabilize above the middle band, it may continue to move along the lower band.
Secondly, based on the KDJ indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the K line value and D line value have formed a golden cross at the low levels, and the J line value is pointing upwards, indicating that there is short-term rebound momentum.
Finally, based on the MACD indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line are gradually converging at the low levels, showing signs of forming a golden cross, indicating that there may be upward momentum in the short term. The green MACD histogram has also shortened, suggesting that the bearish forces are weakening and there is short-term rebound demand.
In summary, at the 4H level, Bitcoin has some support near the middle Bollinger Band, but the MACD and KDJ both indicate that the bears are dominant, and there is a risk of further downside in the short term. If the middle band is breached, the price may test the support at the lower Bollinger Band. At the 1H level, Bitcoin has shown signs of short-term rebound after the decline. The low-level golden cross of KDJ and the shortening of the MACD histogram indicate rebound demand, but it remains to be seen whether the price can effectively break through the middle Bollinger Band. If it can break through and stabilize above the middle band, it may kick off a rebound.
In summary, the sage offers the following suggestions for your reference:
The September non-farm payroll data will be released at 8:30 pm tonight. Due to the uncertainty caused by the strong hurricane and the Boeing strike, the non-farm employment is expected to drop from 254,000 in September to around 100,000 in October. The unemployment rate is likely to remain unchanged at 4.1%.
Go long on Bitcoin at around $69,300, with a target of $70,900 and a stop-loss at $68,850.
Writing time: (2024-11-01, 18:17)
(Article by Sage Coin Talk)
