There is only one more day until the US presidential election, and former President Donald Trump is emerging as the frontrunner in major prediction markets.
On Polymarket, for example, Trump is leading with a 56.5% chance of winning, while Vice President Kamala Harris trails with 43.6%, according to the press conference time.
A similar trend is appearing on Kalshi, with Trump surpassing 52% compared to Harris' 48%. Overall, both prediction markets seem to emphasize the growing confidence in Trump's chances of returning to the Oval Office.
Controversy over prediction markets
However, as Trump's chances increase on prediction markets, doubts have emerged about the possibility of manipulation.
The concerns focus on specific accounts, particularly one named "Fredi9999", which on-chain analysts and investigators believe may belong to a single investor actively skewing the odds in Trump's favor.
This has raised broader questions about the transparency of Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as the accuracy of their predictions.
Adding to these concerns, Mark Cuban suggested that foreign investments may be distorting the results. Particularly when US citizens are restricted from participating on such platforms, it further complicates the reliability of these betting odds.
"From everything that's been pointed out, most of the money flowing into Polymarket is foreign money, so I don't think it represents anything."
Kalshi founder refutes rumors
In response to these rumors, co-founder Tarek Mansour took to Twitter to assert that Trump's betting odds are not being artificially inflated by a specific group of individuals.
Instead, he emphasized that the opposite situation is true.
The role of cryptocurrencies in this election cycle is particularly notable, as industry leaders have actively participated in campaign contributions.
This may have started with the Winklevoss twins, the founders of Gemini, who drew attention when each contributed 1 million USD in Bitcoin to support Trump.
In contrast, Harris received support from Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, who donated 10 million USD in XRP to her campaign.
These significant contributions highlight how cryptocurrency leaders are increasingly influencing the political landscape through digital asset donations.
Crypto community divided ahead of the election
This division is clearly evident as many crypto executives publicly endorse their preferred candidate.
For instance, Anthony Scaramucci, a businessman from SkyBridge, expressed his support on X, stating,
"Harris will win."
In contrast, Dan Held recorded,
How do US elections affect Bitcoin?
During this time, the price volatility of Bitcoin [BTC] has become prominent in the final week leading up to the US elections.
After reaching a peak of $73,000, BTC has declined on the chart, with the cryptocurrency's value at $69,085.85, according to the press conference time.
However, this may soon change. History shows that Bitcoin tends to rise in price when the election probability favors Trump, suggesting the potential for an increase if he wins.
In fact, some analysts predict a surge up to $100K if Trump prevails.
Therefore, as Election Day approaches, all eyes are on how the outcome may influence the direction of BTC.
