Odaily星球日报讯 摩根大通估计特朗普在美国大选中获胜的几率为 60%至 70%，并预测如果共和党“大获全胜”（Red Sweep），美元将上涨 5%；而如果美国国会两党分裂，美元将上涨 1.5%至 2%。（Cointelegraph）

摩根大通估计特朗普在美国大选中获胜的几率为60%至70%

Odaily Odaily News: JPMorgan Chase estimates that Trump has a 60% to 70% chance of winning the US election, and predicts that if the Republicans win a &quot;Red Sweep&quot;, the dollar will rise by 5%; if the two parties in the US Congress split, the dollar will rise by 1.5% to 2%. (Cointelegraph)

JPMorgan Chase estimates Trump's chances of winning the US election are 60% to 70%

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Recently, JPMorgan Chase released a report that emphasizes the potential impact of the US election on tax policy, government debt, and market stability, providing guidance for investors on how to view the election period. JPMorgan Chase analysts explained that the key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will expire in 2025, and Congress may re-examine tax policy, as the non-extension of these measures could significantly increase tax revenue. The report states: "In summary, if the temporary provisions of the TCJA expire, individual tax rates will revert to higher levels, resulting in a 1.8% reduction in after-tax income for all US households, and a 3.1% reduction for the top 1% of income earners." Given this, JPMorgan Chase expects that both parties will likely push for at least a partial extension of the TCJA, but the specific details will depend on the election results. Regarding the national deficit, JPMorgan Chase expects that the proposals of both Trump and Harris will increase it, which could impact bond yields. The report points out: "If all the policy proposals made during the campaign were to become reality (which is unlikely), the deficit could increase by more than $1 trillion over the next 10 years under Harris' leadership, and nearly $4 trillion under Trump's leadership." Although debt concerns are evident, JPMorgan Chase stated that some concerns may be exaggerated. The report explains: "While we believe the debt and deficit trajectory is a risk, some concerns are unfounded. In fact, the current total yield gives investors a second chance." JPMorgan Chase also discussed the possibility of a prolonged or disputed election, noting: "It's hard to say when we'll know who won this election, and we may not have a clear answer for a week or two. If the election is close, we expect to see court challenges and other legal actions by the end of this year. It's also worth noting that the 2022 Electoral Count Reform Act aims to strengthen mechanisms to ensure clear execution of election results." Additionally, the analysts advised investors: "After the new government is confirmed, market volatility tends to decline relatively quickly, and on average, the stock market will rise 12 months after the election. In other words, don't let the election disrupt your plan - the election results won't drive long-term market returns." This week, JPMorgan Chase analysts led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou also predicted that a Trump victory could drive retail investors towards risk assets, potentially pushing up the prices of Bit and Dai in a broader "reflation trade".

JPMorgan Chase: U.S. election results could reshape tax policy, government debt and market stability, bringing about a huge economic shift

Odaily Planet Daily Report: According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Trump winning the US presidential election is currently 54.6%, while the probability of Harris winning the election is 45.4%, with a difference of less than 10 percentage points. In addition, the total amount of bets on the US election on the platform has exceeded $3 billion ($3,007,691,885).

Polymarket: Trump's odds of winning are less than 10 percentage points ahead of Harris, with bets exceeding $3 billion

Odaily Planet Daily Report: "It is difficult to be pessimistic about gold." On the eve of the US election, the latest research report from JPMorgan Chase gave this assessment. The bank said in the report: "Regardless of who wins, if the gold price pulls back, it will be a good buying opportunity." Currently, gold trading is very active, and if the election results are unexpected in the short term, the market may experience volatility. However, JPMorgan Chase believes that in the long run, gold will still benefit from the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, the purchase by central banks of various countries, and the global trend of currency depreciation. The report stated, "These factors have supported the gold price over the past year, and these driving factors will continue to exist regardless of the outcome of the US election." The report predicts that if the Republican Party wins a comprehensive victory, the gold price is expected to rise 7-10% in the next 1-2 quarters; even in the most conservative scenario - Harris wins and Congress is divided, although there may be a short-term pullback of 2-3%, there is still room for an upward trend afterwards.