Odaily星球日报讯 谢尔顿资本管理公司（Shelton Capital Management）旗下谢尔顿战术信贷基金（Shelton Tactical Credit Fund）投资组合经理 Jeffrey Rosenkranz 表示，上周五的 10 月就业报告有助于反驳人们的担忧，即美联储在 9 月的激进降息可能为时过早。也就是说，根据芝商所的数据，他并不完全相信年底前肯定还会有两次 25 个基点的降息，即使利率期货交易员已经开始预期这样的结果。虽然鲍威尔几乎肯定会被问及大选，或者美国国债收益率的上升会如何影响他们的想法，但罗森克兰茨预计鲍威尔很可能会提出异议。（金十）

机构：美联储12月降息并非板上钉钉

Odaily Odaily News: Jeffrey Rosenkranz, portfolio manager of Shelton Tactical Credit Fund under Shelton Capital Management, said that last Friday&#39;s October jobs report helped refute concerns that the Federal Reserve&#39;s aggressive rate cuts in September may be premature. That is, according to CME data, he is not completely convinced that there will definitely be two more 25 basis point rate cuts before the end of the year, even though interest rate futures traders have begun to expect such an outcome. While Powell will almost certainly be asked about the election, or how rising U.S. Treasury yields will affect their thinking, Rosenkranz expects Powell is likely to object. (Jinshi)

Institution: The Fed's December rate cut is not a done deal

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Brian, the long-term strategist and head of Wind Shift Capital Advisors, said he expects the stock market to experience turbulence in the next 12 months. This is because the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates to very low levels as the market expects, and borrowing costs are likely to rise from now on. This may suppress lending, slow down investment, and cause the US and global stock markets to fall by 7%-12%. "I believe the crisis we face is that when interest rates start to rise, the government will not be able to continue to stimulate the economy in a rising interest rate environment, as they have lost the support of the market," Brian said. Brian's forecast may be counterintuitive to investors who have been pricing in a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, he said the US economy faces too much inflationary pressure in the medium term, so the Federal Reserve cannot be guaranteed to adopt an aggressive easing policy. (Jin Shi)

Senior Wall Street strategist: Inflation will not disappear, and the Fed is not expected to cut interest rates significantly

Odaily Planet Daily Report: According to a research report by CITIC Securities, the U.S. non-farm payroll growth in October 2024 was lower than expected, with healthcare services and government sectors being the main contributors, while durable goods manufacturing and temporary help services were the main drags. The October non-farm data was significantly disrupted by the impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as the Boeing strike. Overall, the U.S. job market is moderately weakening, but wage growth remains robust and there is no sign of large-scale corporate layoffs, indicating a healthy job market. The October non-farm data continues to provide evidence for a "soft landing," and we maintain our previous judgment that the Federal Reserve will have two more 25bps rate cuts this year. (Gold Ten)

CITIC Securities: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps twice this year

Odaily Planet Daily reported that former Kansas City Fed President George said that it would be difficult to accept a pause in rate cuts in November. In an interview, George said, "If they skip this meeting, what's the explanation? Given that they cut rates by 50 basis points in September, you really need a story to explain why you're going to skip the meeting, or explain why you want to slow the pace of rate cuts." George expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this week and predicts that Powell will explain in the post-meeting press conference that the Fed decided to cut rates even with a strong economy to maintain that performance, echoing Powell's comments on September 30. George said: "I think what we're going to hear is: 'We want to keep it that way, we don't want to see the economy slow down.'"

Former Kansas City Fed President George: It will be difficult to accept a pause in interest rate cuts in November, and a 25 basis point rate cut is expected this week