With the U.S. presidential election just a day away, Bitcoin’s (BTC) expected price volatility is experiencing a sharp increase as the political climate tightens.
Data from Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange, show the implied volatility index for Bitcoin soaring to 63.24% on an annualized basis—its highest level since July. Implied volatility measures expected price swings over a given period—in this case, over the next 30 days—providing insight into how much market participants anticipate prices could fluctuate.
This jump in expected volatility reflects market sentiment as investors prepare for potential uncertainty ahead of the fiercely contested U.S. presidential election between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris.
The price of Bitcoin is currently hovering around $69,100 ahead of the election, up 1.2% on the day, per data from CoinGecko.
While some anticipate further volatility, Maria Carola, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange StealthEX, offered a tempered view. Speaking to Decrypt, Carola explained, “BTC is unlikely to see a rise in volatility ahead of the election, but volatility could increase after the U.S. presidential election, especially if the results are controversial.”
According to Carola, Bitcoin’s price could be affected if election results become contentious and lead to litigation, with tight races in swing states having the potential to push crypto prices downward.
Ahead of the election, Trump’s chances have taken a hit on crypto prediction market Polymarket, with bettors slashing his odds of winning the election from highs of over 66% at the weekend to just under 58% on Monday. The shift in sentiment followed the release of a new poll by veteran pollster Ann Selzer, which suggested that Trump could lose in Iowa, a state he carried in the last two elections.
The New York Times/Siena College poll, published Sunday, reflects a similarly tight race. Such political uncertainty has historically affected Bitcoin; in both 2016 and 2020, ahead of the elections, Bitcoin dipped by 10.2% and 6.1% respectively, before rebounding to higher levels post-election, said Carola.
Carola pointed out an intriguing trend: while Bitcoin often shows a decline before U.S. elections, it has historically surged afterward, noting that, “after each election, there was an impressive growth. After the 2016 elections, the price soared to $1,110, and in 2020, Bitcoin set a historical record, exceeding $40,000.”
Aside from the election, other impending events are expected to influence Bitcoin’s trajectory, with Carola pointing to the looming Fed meeting on Thursday, with economists anticipating a rate cut of 25 basis points.
Other coming important indicators that could affect investor sentiment include the U.S. trade balance and ISM service index on Tuesday, labor market data on Thursday, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index on Friday.
This year’s election marks a turning point for crypto as it becomes a prominent issue in U.S. politics. “The U.S. is quite a mature market when compared to others,” Edul Patel, Co-Founder and CEO of Mudrex, told Decrypt, explaining that over 40% of Americans hold crypto in some form or other. “This is pivotal as the nation gears up for elections where crypto takes center stage for the first time,” Patel said, adding that, “Unlike past elections, both major parties are advocating for clearer, supportive regulations.”
As investors await the outcome of the election, they're closely watching both political developments and economic indicators, with Carola noting that “the situation in the U.S. will remain decisive for crypto assets.”
