Trump or Harris? What will happen in the market before and after the US election?

The encryption market has never lacked hot spots, and almost every period, a new important event will become the focus of attention and discussion for everyone. For example, the focus event in September was the attention to whether the Federal Reserve would announce a rate cut, followed by a new round of wealth creation stories for various MemeCoin, and now it seems that everyone is again concerned about whether Trump or Harris will be elected president. Perhaps, after the dust of the US election settles, the market will turn to other directions and choose new focus points. At present, the US election is about to determine the winner, and according to the forecast of some media on the Internet, the new owner of the White House may be initially determined as early as noon or afternoon on November 6 (Beijing time). And today (November 5th), due to the uncertainty of traders and investors about the election results, the bears seem to have manipulated the market again based on the news from the mainstream media, and BTC has fallen to around $66,800 at the lowest, but a small rebound has soon appeared, and as of the writing of this article, the price of BTC is $68,000. As shown in the figure below. In the next two days, the progress and news related to the US election will continue to be the focus in major media or social platforms, and given the great difference in the views of Trump and Harris on BTC, this will also continue to affect the short-term trend of the encryption market, and overall, it seems that these uncertainties are forming consecutive shocks to the short-term market. So what might happen next? Let's first look at the changes in BTC's historical prices: If we simply review the history, it seems that BTC has a certain pullback before the US presidential election, for example, I saw a comparative chart shared by a friend in the group: In 2016, BTC fell 10% before the US election In 2020, BTC fell 6% before the US election This time, BTC has already fallen 6%. As shown in the figure below. In terms of trend, the market's view has been that Trump is expected to win, as many analysts see Trump as a "crypto-friendly" president. If we continue to compare the data on the Polymarket platform, we can also find some interesting things, such as: Starting on October 6, Trump's winning odds began to rise, and BTC also began to rise almost at the same time. On October 30, Trump's winning odds reached a peak, and BTC's price also reached a peak almost at the same time. In addition, in the previous article, I also shared another interesting historical comparative data, let's take a look: The first BTC halving (November 2012), the US election (November 2012), 5 months later: BTC reached ATH (all-time high) in April 2013 The second BTC halving (July 2016), the US election (November 2016), 13 months later: BTC reached ATH in December 2017 The third BTC halving (May 2020), the US election (November 2020), 12 months later: BTC reached ATH in November 2021 The fourth BTC halving (April 2024), the US election (November 2024), then? If we look at it this way, the US election cycle seems to be quite consistent with the growth cycle of BTC. Of course, historical data cannot be used to carve a boat and seek a sword, and the above data can be seen as an interesting reference. But what if the final result is a Harris victory? Will the market directly declare a new bear market cycle? How should we deal with it? Some analysts believe that if Harris ultimately wins, it will be a negative factor for the encryption market, especially for some Altcoins that are seen as securities, which are likely to continue to be subject to the SEC's harsh but unclear regulations, which may lead to a new round of larger declines. However, some analysts hold a more optimistic view, believing that whether Trump or Harris wins, BTC will continue to rise in the medium and long term, and may even reach $100,000 this year. We tend to agree with the latter view, that is, we also believe: no matter who is finally elected president, the encryption market will not directly enter a bear market, and we still believe that a new round of good bull market will appear in the next six months or one year. This view has actually been expressed in some of our previous articles, because in our view, although the US presidential election is relatively important to the market, after all, a new official takes office and the different styles of presidents may mean some different new policies, but what can directly affect the medium and long-term trend of the encryption market are still factors such as the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, changes in global liquidity (M2 money supply increase), and the global large-scale adoption of ETFs... These major trends and factors, that is, we believe that these broader macrotrends will not undergo major changes. So if you are very concerned about the short-term fluctuations that the market may experience, you may want to consider doing some hedging operations. And if you are making a medium and long-term investment plan, then you don't need to do any fancy operations now, just wait patiently for the BTC trend to turn better. We still stick to our previous suggestions, manage your positions according to your own risk preferences, and put the majority of your positions in BTC. Then, with a small position, you can hold the high-risk MemeCoin with the mentality of zeroing out. And it seems that the trend of MemeCoin is also at a stage of periodic peak, and perhaps we will soon see the possibility of some narratives rotating quickly. As for Altcoins, according to the discussion of the group members, we can focus on the top projects in the hot sectors (or you can also consider the sectors that were hot last year but have not been hot this year), and I also agree with this idea, because the relative risk will be slightly lower. In short, as mentioned at the beginning of this article, the encryption market has never lacked hot news or events, just like now no one cares about the BTC halving event, no one cares about the governments' selling of BTC, and no one cares whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates... Maybe in a few months, who the US president is will also be of no concern to anyone. The hot news or events in the market will always appear in front of the retail investors at the most appropriate time, we should not be disturbed by various news and disrupt our own plans and strategies. The only thing we should care about is: do you have a big BTC pie in your hands, and is your big BTC pie increasing or decreasing!