The next US president is about to be announced, and major global capital markets, including US stocks and cryptocurrencies, have been reacting very intensely, especially the crypto market.
From the online sentiment, it seems that the crypto market is particularly afraid of Trump's defeat. I feel this is completely unnecessary.
The biggest feature of the US system is the separation of powers, and a president can do a lot, but it is difficult to bring about earth-shaking changes.
Trump has been bullish on crypto in the past few months, making all kinds of exaggerated remarks, claiming to turn the US into a crypto paradise. But can these be taken seriously? Doubt is more rational.
For example, Trump said he wants to make BTC a US strategic reserve. This... The US gold reserve is not even decided by the president, if you still believe in the US as a market economy, the gold reserve must be based on economic and financial stability, how could it be decided by the president.
If the president could decide to include Bitcoin in the strategic reserve, what's the use of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, what's the use of Congress' legislation.
If Trump is really that powerful, why doesn't he just appoint himself president instead of running for election?
It's just that Trump is talking about Bitcoin, if he was talking about some stocks, I bet the SEC would sue him for market manipulation.
Just look at the TikTok ban issue in the US, Trump's administration wanted to kill TikTok, and the Biden administration also has the same intention, but there is still no clear result so far. This is just dealing with one company, it's not something a president can decide on their own. Counting the game here, the president's executive order, national security review, congressional discussion, and multiple court interventions, the final decision power is scattered among multiple departments. The president's decision-making power is indeed limited.
This has to be said to be an advantage of the US system, the change of the president will not lead to a major change in national policies and people's livelihood.
Looking at Chinese history, one of the biggest problems with 2,000 years of imperial power is the issue of succession. The current US succession system is very worth learning from.
Crypto enthusiasts, have you been watching too many palace dramas and think that a change of president can have a earth-shaking impact on the crypto market?
Ah, if I keep talking, I'll turn into a US cheerleader.
Also, I think Trump has a pretty ugly appearance in the crypto market.
On Opensea, you can find a total of four NFT projects directly related to Trump, all of which are legitimate and have a direct relationship with Trump, and buying the NFTs can get special benefits, such as a piece of Trump's debate suit, attending a golf club dinner, etc. [1]. Without exception, these NFTs are all garbage.
And just last month, the Trump family released a DeFi project called WLF, let's hope it doesn't end in a mess this time.
If any other person issued these projects, they would probably be cursed in the crypto market, but as a former president, he can make some money in the crypto market, which can be seen as the industry's advertising fee paid to him. However, I think this advertising fee is very worthwhile. Trump is undoubtedly a top influencer in the world today, and he can make a few tens of millions of dollars from the crypto market in exchange for a few words of praise, which is a very good deal for the crypto market.
Just from his efforts to advertise the crypto market, if he becomes president, he should be a boon for the crypto market.
Including Musk, many people have claimed that if Harris is elected, the stock market will crash, the economy will be a disaster, and World War 3 will break out, and if Trump takes office, everyone will become rich and prosperous within three days.
Oh my, even a man's Valentine's Day vows can't be like this, or he'll be struck by lightning.
Looking at the actual economic effects, Biden is very friendly to cryptocurrencies, he's not just blowing smoke, although he's a bit senile, but during his tenure, the BTC and ETH ETFs were launched, and BTC hit a new high.
The US stock market has also performed very well during Biden's tenure.
As Biden's vice president, Harris is more likely to continue Biden's policies.
How did it turn into the netizens' view that Harris taking office would lead to a crypto crash? I don't believe that at all.
My view is not that whoever is elected will have no impact on the crypto market, I just feel that it is impossible to have an extreme impact, a slight increase in normal market volatility is normal.
Compared to the short-term impact of a president taking office, the more important factor is whether the overall US economy and the global economy can continue to improve.
Regardless of who is elected, the real factors affecting the crypto market and other capital markets are the fundamentals of the US economy, including inflation levels, employment data, interest rate policies, and the international economic situation. These economic factors determine the market's liquidity and investors' risk appetite, not a single political leader. Therefore, focusing on the macroeconomic trend is the key to judging the long-term market trend, rather than being obsessed with the short-term fluctuations caused by the change of leadership.
Finally, for fun, let's guess the election result.
I guess Trump will win.
My reason is: Musk is too far-sighted.
When Musk bought Twitter two years ago, he said he would buy it in April 2022 and the deal was closed in October. At the time, I thought Musk had changed, he was no longer great, he used to go do things that no one else was doing, shouldn't he be boasting about going to colonize Mars? How come now he's spending almost all his wealth to buy Twitter, a social product that entrepreneurs have already killed themselves over? This is so mediocre.
I thought at the time that he was buying Twitter for greater influence.
But this year, the US presidential election, X.com has become the center of the election game, becoming Musk's biggest political capital (probably also one of Trump's biggest political capitals).
To start laying the groundwork two years ago, spending almost all his wealth on this kind of layout, it can almost be said to be (half) a case of burning the boats.
Just thinking about it, it's amazing.
Now, spending $40 billion to buy X, and X has become the biggest political stage in the world, Musk has won big, this business is done, much better than going to Mars and boasting.
Compared to Musk's moves, I feel that the current president Biden and his current presidential candidate Harris, due to the change of position in the middle, are completely impossible to have a similar long-term layout.
So I think Trump will win.
