The US presidential election is set to take place on the 5th local time, with Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate, former President Trump, neck and neck in traditional polls until the last minute. However, on the well-known decentralized prediction market Polymarket, Trump's winning rate is as high as 58.5%, significantly outpacing Harris by nearly 17%.
Polymarket Whale Bets Again on Trump
The surge in Trump's winning rate on Polymarket is driven by several whales who have bet millions of dollars. Earlier today, ABMedia analyst Yu Jin tweeted that the largest address betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket 0xd23…f29 (account nickname zxgngl) has continued to increase its position by $3.1 million on Trump's victory in the past 6 hours.
He has now invested $17.2 million USDC in Trump's victory. If Trump wins, he can earn $10.94 million.
However, if Trump does not win the election, the entire investment will be wiped out (unless he has other hedging operations).
Yesterday, a whale spent 5 million USDC to bet on Harris' victory, which temporarily narrowed Trump's lead from 28% to less than 10%. Yu Jin estimates that if his prediction comes true, he will receive a staggering return of $10.87 million.
The number one Trump supporter whale, who has attracted mainstream media attention and even an investigation by the Polymarket platform, recently gave an interview with the WSJ, claiming to be a French trader who has spent over $30 million using 4 accounts (Fredi9999, Princess Caro, Michie and Theo4) to bet on a Republican sweep. It is estimated that if his prediction is successful, he could receive an astonishing $80 million in returns.
Further Reading:Polymarket "Bets $30 Million on Trump" Whale Investigated: French Trader Claims No Political Agenda, Just Wants to Make Money
Looking at the US Stock Market for Election Clues: S&P500 Favors Harris, Trump Concept Stocks Surge After Hours
Additionally, from the stock market indicators, the S&P 500 index, which has accurately predicted the winner in 83.3% of the last 24 US presidential elections, is still on an upward trend compared to 3 months ago. If no unexpected plunge occurs today, the Democratic incumbent Harris is more likely to win.
However, it is worth noting that the Trump concept stock "Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O)" surged 12.37% on Monday, and continued to surge over 8.7% after the US market close, highlighting Trump's momentum on the eve of the election.
Further Reading:Can the S&P 500 Magically Predict the US President? 83% Odds Suggest Kamala Harris May Defeat Trump
Final Polls Show Tight Race Between Harris and Trump
Turning to traditional polls, most of the final polls show that Harris and Trump are still neck and neck, both nationally and in the seven swing states, with the differences within the margin of error. The tight race is seen as the most difficult US presidential election to predict the outcome.
National Polls
- PBS News/NPR/Marist: Harris 51% vs Trump 47% (Harris leads by 4%, exceeding the 3.5% margin of error, and almost the same as the final 2020 poll that predicted Biden's victory)
- AtlasIntel: Harris 48.1% vs Trump 49.2% (Trump leads by 1.1%, still within the 2% margin of error)
- NYT: Harris 49% vs Trump 48%
- ABC/FiveThirtyEight: Harris 48% vs Trump 46.2%
Swing States: The seven key swing states with 93 electoral votes will be the biggest factor in determining the 270 electoral votes needed to win the US presidency for both Harris and Trump.
- Emerson College/Capitol Hill Report: Trump narrowly wins 4 states (Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania), while Harris narrowly wins 1 state (Michigan), and the other 2 states (Wisconsin, Nevada) are tied, but the margins in all 7 states are within the margin of error.
- ABC/FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics all show Trump has a significant advantage in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and a narrow win in the previously Democratic-leaning Nevada, and a narrow lead in Pennsylvania; Harris narrowly wins the blue wall states of Michigan and Wisconsin.
- AtlasIntel: Trump wins all 7 swing states
- NYT: Harris has a narrow lead in North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, while Trump wins Arizona by 4%, the other 2 states Pennsylvania and Michigan are tied.
As the US election enters the final election eve, Trump will hold three rallies in swing states on the final day, focusing on Pennsylvania with 19 electoral votes; Harris will also focus on the Pennsylvania battlefield, inviting heavyweight celebrities like Lady Gaga and Oprah to the Philadelphia election eve rally to boost the campaign.
Who will move into the White House in 2024 is being watched with bated breath around the world.
