In the village of Dixville Notch in Coos County, New Hampshire, USA, voting began at 12 am local time on November 5 and the vote counting has been completed.
There are 6 registered voters in the area, and the Republican candidate Trump and the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris tied at 3 votes each, kicking off the 60th US presidential election.
Since this area starts voting several hours earlier than other places, it has become the focus of national media attention, with the number of visiting reporters even exceeding the number of voters; however, the voting results in this area have little reference value for the overall election situation in the past.
Internet celebrity hippopotamus Moodeng predicts Trump's victory
In pre-election polls, the support for both sides has been in a stalemate, and the market has not reached a consensus on who will win. According to a report from foreign media, the internet celebrity hippopotamus Moodeng from Khao Kheow Open Zoo in Thailand chose to eat the watermelon with Trump's name carved on it in its watermelon prediction yesterday (4th), seemingly predicting Trump's victory in the US presidential election.
Although Moodeng does not have the ability to predict, his watermelon prediction also adds some entertainment to the tense presidential election.
Musk: Trump will win Pennsylvania by 500,000 votes
The swing state of Pennsylvania has become a battleground for both candidates. Trump's top supporter, Tesla CEO Musk, has also been actively campaigning for Trump in various parts of Pennsylvania before the election. In addition, Musk has also held a $16 million raffle in Pennsylvania, which has led to legal disputes at one point.
Furthermore, regarding this election, Musk also used data analysis to tweet about the situation in the swing states today (5th), stating that Trump is likely to win Pennsylvania with a 500,000 vote advantage:
Based on the current data on early voting in the swing states, the following is the gap between the Republican and Democratic early votes (R-D):
The Republican turnout on election day is usually higher than the Democratic party, so the states that lean Republican in early voting are most likely to ultimately support Trump.
Although Pennsylvania is currently leaning Democratic in early voting, the turnout on election day is extremely high. If Trump's turnout on the day is the same as the last election, he is likely to win Pennsylvania by about 500,000 votes, even to the point of an overwhelming victory.
S&P index predicts presidential candidate
On the other hand, according to a previous report by BlockTempo, according to data from independent broker-dealer LPL Financial, in the past 24 US presidential elections (1928-2020), the S&P 500 index accurately predicted 20 times, with an accuracy rate of 83.3%.
Regarding this, LPL Financial's Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquis also provided an explanation for the S&P 500 index's prediction:
The S&P 500 index can effectively predict the results of the US presidential election. The index tracks the stock performance of the largest publicly traded companies in the US, and past data shows that if the index rises in the three months before the election, the incumbent party's candidate usually wins; if the index falls, the incumbent party usually loses power.
Based on the current data, the S&P 500 index has risen compared to three months ago, and according to the past indicator, Kamala Harris is likely to win. However, the current market economy is different from the economic background of previous elections, and many analysts have begun to express doubts about the predictive power of the S&P 500 index.
