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The 2024 presidential election! This article is enough 🔵 🔴
The analyzes the pre-election polls in seven key swing states, the vote counting schedule in each state, and the possible announcement time of the election results, providing you with all the information you need.
This will help you quickly grasp the key timeline and data of the election results, and formulate the most appropriate trading strategy!
💡 Must-understand the American electoral system: Electors, not voters, vote for the president
💡 What swing states need attention in this US election: Seven states determine life and death
💡 U.S. election swing states voting schedule
💡 After the US election, what will happen to the market indexes? 40-year statistics revealed
💡 Trump VS Harris Harris, which candidate’s election will be good for cryptocurrency?
💡 Summary of the author’s opinions… x.com/i/web/status/18538062707...
Most people think that the U.S. election will be settled on November 5, but in fact, the votes cast by American voters on voting day did not "directly" elect the president and vice president.
The Electoral College will vote again on December 17, 2024 to "officially" choose the next president and vice president of the United States. … x.com/i/web/status/18538062834...
Which swing states need attention in this U.S. election: Seven states determine life and death
In past election results, it can be observed that most states in the United States have clear party intentions. If there are no surprises, the distribution of voting results in 43 states and Washington, DC, this presidential election will be as expected.
The seven key states hold a total of 93 electoral votes. It is generally believed that these seven states will determine the outcome of this election. They are:
💡🔵 Three Midwest swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, 44 votes total
Traditionally an area with strong industrial and trade union power, it is known as the "Blue Wall". Since 1988, these three states have generally supported the same candidate, mostly going for Democrats.
💡Four Sun Belt swing states: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada, 49 total votes
The four swing states in the Sun Belt are areas where the population continues to grow. They are traditionally more Republican-leaning. However, in recent years, due to large-scale population immigration, there have been considerable variables in the elections.
Trump has won North Carolina twice, but the margin of victory was significantly smaller in 2020. And Obama was the last Democrat to win the state in 2008. Biden in 2020 was the first Democratic candidate to win Georgia since Clinton in 1992 and the first Democrat to win Arizona since Clinton in 1996.
Will the swing state win the president? 7 The difference between states is crucial
With the basic base unchanged, Harris still needs to get 44 votes in swing states, while Trump needs to get 51 votes in swing states. Therefore, the most important thing to pay attention to is who will win these 93 electoral votes!
Since the voting results in the swing states in the Midwest are usually unanimous, it means that if Harris wins the swing states in the Midwest (44... x.com/i/web/status/18538063659...
U.S. election swing state voting schedule ⏰
The seven key states with the greatest impact in this presidential election will gradually close polling stations from 8:00 to 11:00 a.m. (UTC+8 time zone) on November 6.
As the statistical results of each state are released, the final results of the electoral votes are expected to be announced as soon as around 12 noon on November 6. The following is the estimated voting schedule of each swing state (all expressed in UTC+8 time)
● Georgia
・Poll ends: November 6th at 08:00
・Estimated results announcement time: Approximately 75% of the votes can be counted within two hours after the poll closes, and may be announced at 10:00 on November 6.
● North Carolina
・Poll ends: November 6th at 08:30
・Estimated result announcement time: The voting is expected to be completed that night and may be announced on the night of November 6.
● Pennsylvania… x.com/i/web/status/18538063903...
After the U.S. election, what will happen to the market indexes? 40-year statistics revealed
The S&P 500 Index is often one of the key indicators for investors to evaluate market trends. It covers about 80% of the total market capitalization of publicly listed companies in the United States and has a history of more than 60 years.
According to statistics, after the results of the past ten U.S. presidential elections were released, the performance of the S&P 500 Index in November and December of that year was:
・1984… x.com/i/web/status/18538064025...
What will happen to Bitcoin after the US election?
Historically, regardless of whether the Democratic or Republican parties are elected, Bitcoin will also show an upward trend after the US election, showing that the cryptocurrency market has digested the uncertainty of the election and gradually returned to a normal pattern.
The only exception is when something like 2020… x.com/i/web/status/18538064145... twitter.com/899748062507278336...
Trump VS Harris Harris, which candidate’s election will be good for cryptocurrency?
During the campaign for the 2024 U.S. President, Trump and Harris each made remarks about the cryptocurrency industry. Overall, Trump’s support was relatively clear, and the cryptocurrency industry generally believed that Trump’s election would be relatively friendly to the industry.
🔴… x.com/i/web/status/18538064269...
🔵 He Jinli’s stance on the cryptocurrency industry
Harris's stance on cryptocurrency has been questioned during the campaign and is considered to be relatively unfriendly to the cryptocurrency industry due to her past legal background and the negative image created by the Democratic SEC chair. She has only recently spoken publicly about cryptocurrency for the first time, emphasizing that AI will be promoted in the future... x.com/i/web/status/18538064390...
During this election, we can see many well-known cryptocurrency companies or advocates, such as @coinbase and @a16z, donating millions of dollars to fairshake and its affiliate PAC to support democracy in the friendly cryptocurrency industry The party and Republican candidates adopted a bilateral betting strategy. Of course, there are also more radical Trump supporters like @cameron.
Especially Fairshake… x.com/i/web/status/18538064513...
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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