Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Nanzi (@Assassin_Malvo)
This morning, Trump's vote difference and winning probability in the presidential election continued to rise. As of 11:17 (UTC+8), the probability of Trump winning the US presidential election on Polymarket exceeded 90%, and Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market rose across the board.
At 11 o'clock, Bitcoin quickly broke through the historical high and set a new record of 75,000 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 10% (BTC has not let down any Hodler so far).
At the same time, Ethereum broke through 2,600 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 6.8%; SOL broke through 180 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 13.8%.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen sharply. CoinGecko data shows that the current total cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen to $2.6 trillion, with a 24-hour increase of 6.72%.
In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that $452 million was liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, of which the vast majority were short positions, amounting to $346 million. In terms of cryptocurrencies, BTC had $244 million in liquidations, DOGE had $39.7 million, and ETH had $37.66 million.
Just a new high
Why is there such a close relationship between Trump's winning probability in the US election and the trend of the cryptocurrency market? The core reason is that Trump and his team have promised to take a more liberal attitude towards cryptocurrencies than the Democratic Party, such as not allowing the creation of a CBDC (digital US dollar) to avoid restricting the financial freedom of Americans; they will establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and the US government under his leadership will no longer sell Bitcoin, but will hold it long-term; he also pointed out that the US will set up a special working group responsible for cryptocurrency policy - the Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Presidential Advisory Council.
(Note from Odaily Planet Daily: See《What Crypto Bills Will Trump Pass If Elected?》for details.)
On the other hand, Trump will also have a significant impact and change on the macroeconomic trend of the United States. According to Jinshi, the next US president will fill several vacant positions, and Powell's term as Federal Reserve chairman will also end in May 2026. Trump or Harris will be able to choose the next leader of the Federal Reserve.
Mark Spindel, Chief Investment Officer of Potomac River Capital and a historian who studies the Federal Reserve and politics, said in a recent interview that this is "an important fork in the road for the Federal Reserve." He added that if the Trump team wins, they will clearly be "very proactive". During his presidency, Trump often attacked Powell and openly pushed the central bank to act according to his wishes, even hinting at negative interest rates, and Trump has hinted that if he gets a second term, he may do more.
Option Data: $80,000 Becomes a Key Level, Selling Calls Dominates
Option data shows that traders are concentrated in betting around the $80,000 Bitcoin strike price, with strong selling of short-term call options as traders strategically collect premiums in anticipation of potential price movements.
Forster said: "Selling call options dominates, indicating that traders are strategically collecting premiums, and the focus on the $80,000 target highlights Bitcoin's potential turning point."
Extreme Greed, Fear and Greed Index Hovering at High Levels
Alternative data shows that the Fear and Greed Index today rose to 70, still in the Greed range, compared to Extreme Greed last week.
Note from Odaily Planet Daily: The Fear Index range is 0-100, including indicators: Volatility (25%), Market Volume (25%), Social Media Hype (15%), Market Surveys (15%), Bitcoin's Proportion in the Overall Market (10%), and Google Trend Analysis (10%).
What to Watch After the Election?
After the election, the most critical event this week will be the announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also hold a monetary policy press conference.
In terms of timing, due to the impact of the US election and daylight saving time, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision at 3:00 am Beijing time on November 8 (Friday).
Normally, the Federal Reserve holds its policy meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday, and announces the decision results on Thursday morning Beijing time, but this time it coincides with the US election voting, so the Federal Reserve's policy meeting has been postponed by one day. The 2024 US presidential election voting will start at 1:00 pm Beijing time on November 5 (Tuesday).
How Much Will the Rate Be Cut?
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said the Federal Reserve will realize its previous hint of two rate cuts by the end of the year, especially after last week's weaker-than-expected employment report. He expects this to continue in the first half of 2025.
In a report released last Sunday, Hatzius said, "We expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates four times in a row in the first half of 2025, with the final rate reaching 3.25%-3.5%, but we have greater uncertainty about the pace and ultimate target of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts next year."
According to Jinshi, investors are expecting Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut rates by 25 basis points this week to keep the rate cut plan on track, despite some stubborn inflation signs and mixed signals about the job market. Morgan Stanley chief economist Michael Feroli said in a report: "This week's FOMC meeting is a refreshingly simple decision, as the rationale for a rate cut still holds." Federal Reserve watchers expect Powell to reach a consensus around a modest rate cut after the significant rate cut in September.
