How did the Crypto market fluctuate in 2016 & 2020 when the US presidential election results were announced?

The 47th US presidential election is extremely exciting with a balanced support rate throughout the campaign of the two presidential candidates Donald Trump & Kamala Harris.

The Crypto market, as well as the financial markets, are experiencing unpredictable fluctuations along the election events.

So how have the Crypto market fluctuations in the election years 2016 & 2020 occurred?

The positions of the 2 presidential candidates on Crypto

While Trump is gaining a lot of goodwill with the Crypto community, Harris is a big "question mark"!

In the US Presidential Campaign on September 22, Vice President Kamala Harris made her first public statement encouraging investment in digital assets. Harris has promised policies to support the development of Crypto-related businesses.

However, the current Biden administration is still "unfriendly" to the development of the Crypto industry. The CEO of Nansen predicts that if Harris becomes President, the current administration's policies will not be favorable for the development and innovation of the cryptocurrency industry, and will continue to be issued => Barriers to development that make companies consider leaving the US

In contrast to Trump, he has made statements supporting Crypto at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville + the support of Elon Musk.

Elon Musk has previously mentioned excessive policies & unnecessary regulations that need to be eliminated.

In the case of Trump's re-election, the SEC is likely to be the first target when Trump & Musk have both publicly criticized the obstacles to the development of Crypto.

In the past, Bit always had a surge before the election timeline

The Halving years always coincide with the US presidential election years, according to the history of fluctuations in previous cycles:

The market has always continued to grow after the new US president's election results are announced. In 2016 & 2020, Bit always surged in late October (2-3 weeks before the election) and then declined, dragging the entire market down during the election week.

=> As of the time of writing, Bit is repeating a similar pattern to 2016 & 2020

Fluctuations of Bit according to the election milestones in 2016 & 2020

Year 2016

General situation:

• Election day: November 8, 2016.
• Announced result: Donald Trump elected president.
• Bit market: At this time, Bit was not yet a leading investment asset for large institutions, but had become an attractive investment channel outside the traditional financial system.

Detailed price movements:

• 1 month before the election: Bit grew 20% from $600 -> $740
• 1 week before the election: Bit maintained around $700 - $710, with stable prices as the market awaited the results.
• After the results were announced (November 9)
  • 1 hour after the announcement: Bit price had a slight reaction, increasing about 1-2%, reaching nearly $715.
  • 4 hours later: Bit continued to rise slightly to $720.
  • 1 day later: Bit reached $730, an increase of about 3-4% compared to before the election.
  • 1 week later: The price continued to rise to $740, corresponding to a 5-6% growth.
  • 1 month later: By early December 2016, Bit continued to rise strongly, reaching $750 - $760

Year 2020

General situation:

• Election day: November 3, 2020.
• Announced result: Joe Biden elected president.
• Bit market: In 2020, Bit has attracted many large institutional investors. The market expects the expansionary monetary policies aimed at reviving the economy due to the impact of COVID-19 will drive Bit prices higher.

Detailed price movements:

• 1 month before the election: Bit increased by 40% from $11,000 -> $15,000
• 1 week before the election: Bit traded around $13,300 – $13,700, gradually increasing due to expectations of new economic stimulus packages.
• After the results (November 07):
  • 1 hour after the announcement: Bit reacted positively, increasing from around $14,000 to $14,200.
  • 4 hours later: BTC continued to rise to $14,500.
  • 1 day later: Bit price exceeded $15,000, up more than 10% from before the election due to expectations of economic policy.
  • 1 week later: Bit continued to rise, reaching around $15,800, up about 15% from the time of the election.
  • 1 month later: By early December 2020, the Bit price reached around $18,000 – $19,000.

Perspective

Not only Bit, Altcoin also fluctuated with the presidential election events. Total 2 metrics (Crypto market capitalization excluding Bit) – representing altcoin and Ethereum show:

The current Altcoin situation is "no different" from the previous two cycles, Altcoin has underperformed for at least 3-4 months following the election milestone:

• In 2016: Altcoin began to grow "1 month" after the US presidential election results
• In 2020: Altcoin began to grow "2 weeks" after the US presidential election results

In 2016, the Republican candidate Donald Trump won, and in 2020, the Democratic candidate Joe Biden won => Showing that regardless of which party wins, it does not significantly affect the long-term volatility of the Crypto market.

Summary

The results of the US presidential election will soon have "short-term" market volatility that is extremely difficult to predict, however, if you trust the market cycle, continue to hold for the long term.