Author: Climber, Jinse Finance
The 60th US presidential election took place on November 5 local time, with qualified voters in 51 electoral districts across the US casting their votes through the indirect electoral college system. In the end, Trump won the election with a majority of votes.
Previously, Trump had promised at the Bitcoin 2024 conference that if elected, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies would soar like never before. On the crypto market front, BTC has indeed hit a new all-time high, with the price surging over $75,000, a 24-hour increase of about 10%. Altcoins have also seen a rare across-the-board rally.
It is worth mentioning that during Trump's previous term, Bitcoin surged 3,900%, rising from $898 when he took office to $35,900 on his last day.
I. Bidirectional Pursuit, Trump Falls for Cryptocurrencies
Donald John Trump, the 45th President of the United States, was a businessman and media personality before entering politics. The 78-year-old Trump served as US President from 2017 to 2021. He failed to be re-elected in 2020 but is now making a comeback. He is the first US president to be impeached twice and the first former president to be criminally convicted.
In July this year, Trump was nominated by the Republican Party as a candidate for the 2024 US presidential election. On November 6, the election results were announced, and Trump won the majority of votes.
Trump's victory makes him the second US president to be elected twice but with non-consecutive terms.
This year, the crypto industry has contributed a large amount of funding to Trump, and Trump has also shown a positive attitude towards the crypto industry.
In the second quarter of this year, Trump's campaign team raised $7.5 million in cryptocurrencies.
In August, at the Bitcoin conference held in Nashville, Tennessee, Trump said his campaign team had raised $25 million in cryptocurrency donations since they started accepting them.
The CEO of Bitcoin Magazine said: "This is the second-highest fundraising for Trump in his three presidential campaigns, a combination of industry and whale/OG."
Trump previously reported that in 2022 he personally owned between $100,000 and $250,000 worth of cryptocurrencies, and according to Federal Election Commission documents, his campaign raised $221 million and had $128 million in cash on hand.
II. Crypto Attitude and Policy Planning
During his previous term, Trump repeatedly criticized cryptocurrencies, calling them "not money", based on "thin air" and "may promote illegal activities", and believing that Bitcoin is a "scam". But in the current US presidential election campaign, his attitude has undergone a 180-degree turn.
Trump's representative declarations and commitments to the crypto market include: if re-elected, he will replace the SEC chairman Gary Gensler, who is critical of cryptocurrencies; if elected, the government will 100% retain the Bitcoin it owns; and he will ensure that the US maintains a leading position in the cryptocurrency field.
Trump's official store supports Bitcoin payments, including for shoes and perfumes.
In addition, Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., has stated that Bitcoin is a means to hedge against inflation and authoritarian governments, and has recently announced the launch of a Telegram channel called "The DeFiant Ones", and he will also launch a crypto project.
Trump's younger son, Eric Trump, said he is about to launch a crypto project related to "digital real estate", and he has previously posted that he has truly fallen in love with cryptocurrencies/DeFi.
The specific timeline of events includes:
In early November, Trump congratulated the Bitcoin whitepaper on its 16th anniversary. He said, "I want to wish our great Bitcoin enthusiasts a happy 16th anniversary of the Satoshi Nakamoto whitepaper. We will end Harris' war on cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin will be made in America!"
In October, Trump vowed again to "save" Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, and reiterated his story and the Silk Road platform that defined the early use of Bitcoin.
In September, Trump said crypto companies should have certain security measures, and it is important to establish a legitimate cryptocurrency framework in the US. He also said, "We will embrace the future with cryptocurrencies, leaving behind the slow and outdated big banks."
In August, Trump said he was ready to unveil a plan to make the US the global "crypto capital".
Especially at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, Trump's rhetoric was even more indicative of his preference for the crypto industry. He said:
The reason for attending the Bitcoin 2024 conference is to ensure that the US maintains a leading position in the cryptocurrency field. The US will become the global cryptocurrency capital and the world's Bitcoin superpower.
Bitcoin is a "miracle of cooperation and human achievement". If we do not embrace cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin technology, other countries will take the lead. Bitcoin represents freedom, sovereignty, and a currency that is not subject to government coercion and control.
On the first day of taking office, he will fire SEC chairman Gary Gensler.
Announce a Bitcoin strategic reserve plan, and if elected, the government will 100% retain the Bitcoin it owns.
After being elected president, he will appoint a Bitcoin/cryptocurrency presidential advisory council.
III. Market Forecasts After the Victory
1. Bullish
Bernstein has raised its Bitcoin price target, with Trump's victory potentially pushing it to $80,000-$90,000. Bernstein analysts expect that if Trump wins, Bitcoin's price could break its all-time high before Inauguration Day (January 20, 2025), reaching $80,000 to $90,000.
The president of The ETF Store: An Ethereum ETF that allows staking will inevitably be approved, and Trump's election will accelerate this process. (If) under the leadership of the Trump administration, this will happen even faster. In addition, Nate Geraci said it's just a matter of time before Ethereum ETF net inflows rebound.
Standard Chartered analysts: Trump's victory will help push Bitcoin to $125,000 by the end of the year. If the Republicans (Trump) achieve a landslide victory in the US Congress, Bitcoin prices will see greater volatility, potentially pushing Bitcoin to $125,000 by the end of the year and triggering a new altcoin frenzy.
2. Bearish
Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School: Trump becoming US president may have a "bearish" impact on Memecoins. Because they are a form of "economic populism and a statement against unfairness.
He added: "Regulatory wisdom in the US will be unfavorable to Memecoins, as it will refocus cryptocurrencies on DApps and other truly important things, leading to a long-term bear market, with most people losing money on Memecoins. After venture-backed tokens were 'forced' into the crypto space due to pressure from Senator Elizabeth Warren and SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, the 'Republican purge' will bring back the era of ICOs, completely open token airdrops, and the 'other token wisdom kings'."
Economist Peter Schiff: Bitcoin may fall due to a "Trump selloff". As Trump's approval rating rises, Bitcoin has not followed the rise of other Trump-related assets, possibly because speculators have already bought in, leading to weaker demand. He predicts Bitcoin may face a "Trump selloff" and believes that under inflationary pressure, gold's hedging advantage is more prominent and is entering a bull market.
Wealth management firm Mirabaud Group: Trump's victory could bring dividends to cryptocurrencies, but risks also exist simultaneously. A potential Trump administration may cancel some of the Biden administration's regulatory crackdown measures and launch initiatives such as a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, positioning the US as a global leader in the crypto field. Trump's lax regulatory approach may attract more investment and innovation into the cryptocurrency space. However, this also raises concerns about increased fraud risks and lack of consumer protection.
Swyftx Chief Analyst: Trump's victory could give cryptocurrencies a "dopamine rush", but traders should remain cautious.
Conclusion
This Trump victory is of great historical significance, both for the individual and for the entire cryptocurrency industry. Given Trump's many promises and positive statements about the cryptocurrency industry prior to his victory, BTC also broke through its historical high on the day of his victory, soaring to new heights. The future of the cryptocurrency industry may also have the possibility of reaching and even breaking through greater boundaries.
