Analysis: The Federal Reserve is still likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Analysis suggests that given the previous statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell that a reasonable pace of rate cuts should be 25 basis points, and the relatively stable economic data performance in the past two months, despite the sharp weakening of non-farm payrolls in October, which was largely affected by one-time factors. Therefore, a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week is still a high probability event, rather than another 50-basis-point rate cut or no rate cut. Currently, a 25-basis-point rate cut in November has already been priced in by the market, with a probability of 97.6%, while the probability of another 25-basis-point rate cut in December is 68.4%. Currently, the main institutions' analysis on the rate cut is as follows: -Goldman Sachs: Consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts are needed; -JPMorgan Chase: Rate cuts are still justified; -Deutsche Bank: The election will not affect the Federal Reserve's decision this week.