Author: shushu, BlockBeats
During the entire election season this year, the crypto application that stood out the most besides Pump.Fun should be the prediction market Polymarket. Due to Polymarket's excellent operation during the election period, coupled with Trump and some KOLs' promotion, the positioning of "who can be bet on as the next president on Polymarket" was quickly spread. The trading volume related to the president kept increasing as the election night approached, until noon on November 6, when the Polymarket website experienced a temporary crash due to the influx of too many people.
Throughout the election cycle, compared to the traditional polling agencies' forecasts, the odds changes on Polymarket have been highly sensitive to the news. Capital always leads the news, and when the swing states had not yet determined the winner, the probability of Trump's victory on Polymarket was already rising.
The total trading volume of the election-related predictions on Polymarket has reached $3,612,184,597, with the trading volume of the Republican candidate Trump reaching nearly $1.48 billion, and the trading volume of the Democratic candidate Harris reaching $1.01 billion.
Leading traditional polls, standing out
On November 6, Polymarket's data showed that Trump's probability of winning experienced significant fluctuations. At 1 a.m., Trump's winning rate was 59.4%, which had previously reached 63% earlier. By 9:46 a.m., Trump's probability of winning had risen to 71.1%, while Harris' probability of winning had dropped to 29.1%. As of 11:17 a.m., Trump's probability of winning further rose to 88.6%. Thereafter, Trump's lead in the key swing states, and the odds changes on Polymarket were very rapid, as everyone was speaking with their money.
According to Protos data, Polymarket and Kalshi's election odds were compared with those of The New York Times (NYT) and Nate Silver, and the differences were obvious. For example, on October 31, the probability of Trump winning the U.S. election on Polymarket was 66%, but on The Hill it was only 48%.
Looking at a broader sample, the average of traditional polling agencies such as Nate Silver, NYT, or FiveThirtyEight showed that Trump and Harris' odds were only within a few basis points in the past period. Clearly, compared to traditional polling agencies, the results given by the transaction-based Polymarket are more convincing.
On November 6, according to data from the app analysis platform SensorTower, the regulated prediction market platform Kalshi is currently ranked first in the Apple Finance app category and also ranked first in the free app category. At the same time, Polymarket has also risen to second place in the free app rankings, which is the highest ranking for these two apps so far.
Who made money, who lost
Crypto prediction markets have always been seen as having strong cyclicality and only specific use cases, such as political elections and sports events. As the U.S. election cycle is coming to an end, the future development of Polymarket will be the focus of many people, but for now, the most eye-catching is this $3.6 billion election trade. Under the high-stakes gambling, French trader Théo spent $45 million betting on Trump, and ultimately became the highest-earning user on Polymarket.
In August, Théo sent dozens of emails to a Wall Street Journal reporter, criticizing what he saw as the mainstream media polls' bias towards Harris. In a Zoom call, he claimed that the media supported by the Democratic Party was paving the way for social unrest by hyping up the fierce competition in the election, and he expected a landslide victory for Trump. Théo said he was surprised by the outside attention to his trades, and he started quietly betting in August, buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Trump's winning contracts under the username Fredi9999. At the time, Trump and Harris' odds on Polymarket were basically even.
To avoid drastic price fluctuations, Théo spread his bets over multiple days. However, as the bet amount increased, Théo noticed that other traders would avoid the quotes when buying Fredi9999, making it difficult for him to bet at the ideal price. So, he created three more accounts in September and October to conceal his buying behavior.
If Trump wins the election and achieves the overwhelming victory as Théo expected, Théo could potentially earn over $80 million in profits, more than doubling his returns. His main bet was on Trump winning the electoral college, and he also bet millions of dollars on Trump winning the popular vote - a scenario that many observers considered unlikely. In addition, he also bet on Trump winning in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Today, the election results have finally been revealed, and one of Théo's accounts, Fredi9999, has already made a total profit of $16.47 million.
Taking the "Who will win the presidential election" trade with the largest trading volume on Polymarket as an example, BlockBeats has listed the users with the largest profits and losses below.
Trump
The chart below shows the distribution of user bets on Polymarket on whether Trump will be elected president. The "Supporters" on the left are users who believe Trump will be elected, with the largest holder "zxgngl" holding 29,473,073 shares, currently with a total profit of $11.315 million. Other major supporters include "Fredi9999" and "walletmobile" mentioned earlier.
The "Opponents" on the right are users who believe Trump will not be elected, with the largest holder "I95153360" holding 7,107,980 shares, currently with a loss of $1.192 million.
Harris
The chart below shows the distribution of user bets on Polymarket on whether Harris will be elected president. The "Supporters" on the left are users who believe Harris will be elected, with the largest holder "leier" holding 10,871,056 shares, and the user's total loss has reached $4.99 million. Other major supporters include "StarVoting" and "Ly67890".
The "Opponents" on the right are users who believe Harris will not be elected, with the largest holder being "COMMA-luh", who holds 4,878,533 shares. In addition, this user also placed bets on the "Trump will be elected president" trade, with a total profit of over $210,000.
