Odaily星球日报讯 摩根大通将 2025 年美联储利率预测改为从 3 月起每季度降息一次。（金十）

摩根大通预测2025年美联储利率从3月起每季度降息一次

Odaily Odaily News: JPMorgan Chase changed its forecast for the Federal Reserve&#39;s interest rate in 2025 to a quarterly rate cut starting in March. (Jinshi)

JPMorgan Chase predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates once a quarter from March in 2025

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Analysis suggests that given the previous statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell that a reasonable pace of rate cuts should be 25 basis points, and the relatively stable economic data performance in the past two months, although the October non-farm payrolls were significantly weaker, but were largely affected by one-time factors. Therefore, a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week is still a high probability event, rather than another 50 basis point cut or no cut. The market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in November with a probability of 97.6%, and the probability of another 25 basis point cut in December is 68.4%. Currently, the main institutions' analysis on the rate cut is as follows: -Goldman Sachs: Consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts are needed; -JPMorgan Chase: The rate cut is still justifiable; -Deutsche Bank: The election will not affect the Federal Reserve's decision this week.

Analysis: The Federal Reserve is still likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Morgan Chase analyst <DavidKelly> said that if Trump wins the US election this week, the Federal Reserve may suspend its loose cycle as early as December. Kelly believes that Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plan will drive up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling. He said, "If Trump wins the election, he will adopt a more expansionary fiscal policy, which may trigger a trade war, the deficit will expand, and interest rates will also rise." Kelly also said that the Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the interest rate decision on Friday, even if the election is held before that.

JPMorgan: If Trump wins, the Fed may suspend its easing cycle as early as December

Odaily Planet Dai Report: Due to the US election and daylight saving time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 3:00 am Beijing time on November 8 (Friday). Typically, the Federal Reserve holds its policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, and announces the decision results in the early morning of Thursday Beijing time, but this time it coincides with the US presidential election, so the Federal Reserve's policy meeting has been postponed by one day. The 2024 US presidential election voting will begin at 1:00 pm Beijing time on November 5 (Tuesday). (Golden Ten)