Gold's biggest one-day drop in nearly half a year, is the safe-haven market gone? Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision announcement at 3 a.m.
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After Trump's election as President of the United States, investors rushed to buy the US dollar, and the price of gold, which had repeatedly hit new highs before the election, instead fell. The spot gold price fell 2.8% in a single day on Wednesday, at one point dropping to $2,643.77, a new low since October 15 and the largest single-day decline in nearly half a year. On Thursday, it stabilized and was flat, currently trading at $2,663, up 0.16% for the day.
Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis for Asia and EMEA at StoneX, analyzed that the market originally expected the election result to be controversial, but Trump's clear victory eliminated uncertainty and reduced risk factors. In addition, Trump's victory caused the US dollar to rise sharply, which combined to lead to the decline in gold prices.
Investors expect that after taking office, Trump will boost the US dollar, as Trump is expected to propose new tariff policies that could trigger a surge in inflation, leading the Federal Reserve to pause its easing cycle. After Trump's victory, the US dollar index hit a 4-month high, reaching as high as 105.45 on Wednesday, and is currently at 104.76, making gold priced in US dollars more expensive for non-US dollar buyers.
After the election results were announced, the market is focused on the FOMC meeting decision. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 3:00 am Taiwan time on the 8th. After cutting rates by 2 notches in September, the market generally expects a 1-notch rate cut this time, with FedWatch data showing a 97.4% probability of a 1-notch rate cut.
Saxo Bank's chief commodity strategy Ole Hansen said that after Trump introduces new tariffs, the risk of rising inflation may slow the pace of US rate cuts. There may still be a rate cut this week, but the post-meeting statement will be closely scrutinized by the market to see if there are signs of a pause in rate cuts.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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