The on-chain prediction market Polymarket stood out in the recent US presidential election, accurately and preemptively predicting the US election results, with a trading volume exceeding $3.6 billion. However, the final data shows that although a French whale made tens of millions of dollars, most bettors actually lost money using the platform, with the "dumb money" bearing the brunt of the losses.
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ToggleFrench whale made $85 million
As previously reported, a French trader made a massive bet on Trump winning the US presidential election on Polymarket. According to the latest research by blockchain analytics platform Chainaanalysis, the same trader operated up to 11 accounts. The most famous user name of this trader is Fredi9999, and his total profit is currently estimated to exceed $85 million.
The "dumb money" bore the brunt of the losses
According to blockchain data collected from multiple Dune dashboards, 86% of the accounts were losing money, meaning that the vast majority of users' bets were wrong and resulted in losses. Fortunately, the average bet size was not large, with the most common range being $100-500, accounting for nearly 28%, followed by $10-50, accounting for 26%, and finally $0-10, accounting for 18%.
According to a Decrypt report, University of Iowa expert Thomas Reitz said that prediction markets need high-information (possibly including insiders) and low-information users to create sufficient liquidity and potential profits to function effectively. In the case of Polymarket, it was clearly the "dumb money" that bore the brunt of the losses, allowing the "smart money" to accumulate substantial profits.
US and French regulators closely monitor the prediction market
As the latest bonus estimates were released, the French gambling regulator said it is investigating the operations of Polymarket, headquartered in New York, to ensure it is complying with its regulations.
With traders rushing to bet on the US presidential election, Polymarket's betting volume surged, exceeding $3.6 billion. After reaching a settlement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022, Polymarket is no longer open to US users, as the platform was accused of providing illegal gambling services. However, certain large-scale bettors still managed to circumvent the restrictions through various means, and facing pressure from US regulators, Polymarket has also stated that it will strengthen its review of US users.
Taiwan-based cooling system company Asia Vital Components (AVC) will invest $400 million in northern Vietnam's Nghe An province and has received an investment registration certificate from the Nghe An provincial authorities. This is the 10th adjustment since AVC was granted permission by the Vietnamese government in October 2020. The project will be implemented by AVC Technology's subsidiary in Vietnam, with three phases of investment of $165 million, $35 million, and $200 million, respectively. The first and second phases are scheduled to commence operations in September 2022 and October 2024, respectively. The $200 million third phase is expected to be operational in March 2025 and October 2026, and this Vietnamese investment project will be used to produce heat dissipation devices, computer cases, computer fans, and computer servers.
What extraordinary capabilities does the veteran computer heat sink manufacturer AVC have to invest a huge amount to set up a factory in Vietnam?
The answer is that they benefit from the indispensable cooling system in AI systems. AVC has been a super partner of Nvidia for 20 years, allowing high-temperature servers in multi-processing to cool down quickly. AVC is now developing a liquid cooling system that can keep AI infrastructure at a stable temperature to ensure normal operation.
AVC chairman Shen Ching-hsing has been producing heat sinks since decades ago, mainly to cool the basic aluminum rails of computers. He is now developing a liquid cooling system to keep up with Nvidia's popular Blackwell AI chips and systems.
Shen Ching-hsing personally fought for a heavyweight client, Amazon. To get Amazon's orders, he set up an office across from Amazon's headquarters in Seattle, and finally won the cooperation business in 2014, and then also got orders from Microsoft.
The statement that without Taiwan, the AI industry cannot exist is not an exaggeration. The main reason is that in addition to producing AI chips, Taiwan companies are responsible for manufacturing almost all the hardware components that maintain the AI ecosystem. Nvidia CEO Ren Huang also said that many unsung heroes have contributed to the AI ecosystem, including AVC.
With the conclusion of the US election, the resurgent Trump administration is prepared to impose tariffs and "protection fees" on Taiwan. While it is true that without Taiwan, there would be no AI, as AI peripheral suppliers flock to invest in Southeast Asian countries, Taiwan's grassroots workers and small and medium-sized factories may face tremendous survival challenges.
