Master Advisor Discusses Hot Topics:
First, let's talk about the Fed's interest rate decision in the early morning. Personally, I feel it was rather dull and boring.
Firstly, the FOMC members unanimously decided to cut rates by 25 basis points, and the statement was also more dovish: it no longer emphasized greater confidence in inflation, but instead said progress has been made; the slowdown in job growth was also changed to a broad-based moderation.
It's clear that the Fed is also thinking: the September non-farm payrolls were very bright, but the unemployment rate didn't continue to climb, and the October CPI was slightly higher than expected, so they don't dare to be too aggressive in their tone.
Powell's press conference was basically nothing new, just the usual data-dependent approach. It's simply that the economy is doing well, so the pace of cuts will be slower, and the economy is doing poorly, so the pace of cuts will be faster. Ah, the classic "flexible and responsive"!
The most eye-catching part was when someone asked Powell, "If Trump asks you to resign, what will you do?" Old Powell decisively stated, "I won't resign, and the law doesn't allow the President to fire me!" This answer was quite to the point. The Fed Chair needs to have an independent stance, and this can also be seen as defending the credibility of the Fed.
Speaking of which, if Trump gets elected, a power struggle between the two is inevitable, after all, Trump is a big proponent of rate cuts.
As for the big question on everyone's mind - will there be another rate cut in December? Powell's forward guidance was lower this time. Barring any surprises, as long as inflation doesn't rebound sharply, there should be another rate cut in December. Although Trump's potential stimulative policies may bring some inflationary expectations, the short-term impact is likely to be limited, and the path of rate cuts is expected to continue.
Turning to the market, Bitcoin has been setting new highs while also seeing a massive short squeeze. With all this volatility, Bitcoin needs a breather, which gives Ethereum a chance to shine.
On the other hand, the ETH/BTC pair has started a bullish trend, with funds flowing from Bitcoin to Ethereum for two consecutive days, showing some signs of a trend. Ethereum's ETF has also seen net inflows of over $50 million for two consecutive days, reaching new highs recently, indicating a strong market performance.
In the early morning, Bitcoin staged a strong rally on the back of the Fed rate cut, reaching a high of $76,850 before a slight pullback; the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones also hit new highs, but the Dow formed a "dark cloud cover", showing some divergence.
The US dollar index fell, and gold took the opportunity to rebound. Although the rate cut was positive, the expectation of future rate cuts has weakened, so this is a short-term sweet spot, and it may gradually level off or even reverse in the medium term.
Master Advisor Looks at the Trend:
Over the past three days, Bitcoin has risen about 8.5%, and is currently consolidating in the upper region, showing an alternating pattern of adjustment and upward trend.
I believe the probability of a sharp decline in the short term is relatively small. If there is a pullback due to some profit-taking, it would actually be a good entry opportunity to find a suitable average holding point.
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: 76,600
Second Resistance: 77,300
Support Levels:
First Support: 75,800
Second Support: 75,400
Trading Suggestions:
If the current uptrend continues, although it may not be in the short term, the possibility of testing 80,000 will increase, so we need to watch for the possibility of lower lows and new highs. If the highs retreat briefly, the close of the candlestick can be seen as an opportunity to enter during a short-term correction.
In today's trading, given the current uptrend, I suggest maintaining a bullish outlook for the rebound. The upward momentum is currently strong, so the risk of holding short positions is relatively high. I recommend only focusing on short-term downside opportunities, with psychological resistance levels at 78,000 and 78,500.
In yesterday's article, the Master Advisor's ultra-short-term long position at around 74,500 was activated, and the price dropped to a low of 74,508 at 10:45 pm. After the Fed's decision was announced, Bitcoin rose to a high of 76,900, and I believe the followers who followed the Master Advisor's pre-set positions also received a pleasant surprise.
The pre-set short position in the 76,400-77,000 range was also successfully activated in the early morning, with the price dropping to around 75,500, a drop of 1,400 points.
Master Advisor's Wave Positions on 11.8:
Long Entry: 74,600-75,000 range, Target: 75,800-76,600
Short Entry: 76,850-77,300 light short, Target: 75,800-75,400
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