Author: CMed, BlockBeats
What can be called the sexiest narrative of Web3 in 2024 "Trump Becomes the First Bitcoin President" came to an end on the evening of November 5th in the US time zone, and Bitcoin has now broken out of the range-bound consolidation that has lasted for half a year, breaking through the previous high of around $73,700 and reaching a high of $76,000.
In the traditional market perception, the Trump meme coins most closely associated with Trump should have soared with the news of Trump's election, but interestingly, on November 6th, the day of Trump's Web3 celebration, when the Trump series meme coins did not rise and even appeared on the mainstream exchange's decline list, they did not show any outstanding performance on the day of the election, but rather experienced a "halving".
For example, the address 0x2f6...1Be78 invested nearly $250,000 at an average price of $3.55 to buy 70,000 TRUMP tokens under the FOMO sentiment of Trump's large lead in the vote count yesterday morning, and is now floating a loss of $88,000 (about 35.5%).
Why the drop?
Looking at the performance of the Trump series of meme coins since their launch, using Trump as an example, the price was already relatively low on the eve of Trump's campaign. Interestingly, when we look at the crypto addresses that Trump has already disclosed, from May to the present, Trump's crypto addresses have accumulated over $3 million, with the main losses coming from the Trump-named meme coin, the quantity of which has not decreased, but the value of the assets in Trump's addresses has shrunk significantly due to the price decline.
After Trump's successful campaign, of course there was an expectation of "good news exhaustion", but in the case of the Trump-named token, it did not see a significant increase and then a "halving", which is obviously not in line with common sense.
Is there no future for political series memes?
On the other hand, we look at some of the recent political memes, such as Pnut and D.O.G.E, which have not seen the obvious decline of Trump and MAGA, but have actually risen.
Pnut and Trump/MAGA are not entirely the same, as Trump/MAGA are more like "direct-giving" political meme narratives, and digging deeper into the stories behind them, we can only reflect the support for Trump, while the story of Pnut can be explored more deeply.
Peanut is the name of the pet of a mechanical engineer named Mark Longo, who took it home to raise after witnessing the unfortunate death of its mother in a car accident more than seven years ago. On October 30th, officials from the New York State Department of Environmental Protection arrested Peanut without a search warrant and euthanized it, claiming it was an "illegally kept wild animal".
The public did not accept this, and the satirical news website Babylon Bee said "Radical squirrels wearing MAGA hats begin to revolt." Elon Musk also repeatedly voiced support for Peanut on social media, and the controversy over Peanut has become an unusually fierce attack on the Democratic Party, even a political weapon.
From this perspective, we can see that political series memes have not come to an end, it's just that the narrative of simply supporting Trump is not "sexy" enough.
Interestingly, the "betting prediction platform" PolyMarket and the Trump series meme coins have actually become a kind of premium to a certain extent, and investing in the Trump series meme coins is no better than betting on Trump's victory on PolyMarket, as the underlying logic is the same. PolyMarket has seen a significant increase in trading volume and the number of prediction events in 2024, which may also explain the long-term sluggishness of the Trump series meme coin prices.
MEME or DeFi? The crypto fork after Trump's inauguration
In the eyes of many "degens" in the market, the grand narrative of Trump becoming the first "Bitcoin President" in US history will certainly spawn a lot of "large MC memecoin", and on the day, the degens were enthusiastic on Twitter to find all kinds of "angles".
For example, JD Vance's dog Atlas participated in the vote, the new Sec Chair candidate called the "crypto mother" Hester, but in the end they did not escape the "PVP" logic, quickly falling back and then zeroing out after reaching a market cap of several million dollars. Many "diamond hand degens" failed in PVP that day.
When shifting the focus from DEX to CEX, the market sentiment is completely different, with the "zero-to-one shitcoins" that have been criticized by the market for nearly half a year showing very good gains. On the day of Trump's inauguration, the "on-chain wild farms" seemed to have disappeared, and many believe: "With the relaxation of regulation, you can make money on the surface, so there is no need to do on-chain wild farms anymore".
DeFi tokens with protocol revenue have also largely escaped the concern of being classified as "securities". Rune Christensen, the founder of Sky (formerly MakerDAO), posted on social media that "Trump's victory will drive a true and lasting revival of DeFi, with the possibility of user numbers increasing 10-fold, as DeFi benefits the most from the reduction in regulatory uncertainty in the crypto space compared to other aspects".
These DeFi tokens have seen good gains after Trump's election, with Uniswap gaining up to 46%, Ethena up to 72%, Jito up to 63%, and Lido DAO up to 56%, with some slight pullback at the time of writing.
Perhaps in the not-too-distant future, we will see a "bull back to speed", with liquidity in CEX becoming abundant again and hot money on-chain not as active. MEME may no longer be a moment of easy money with just a slightly interesting angle, but will require a more sexy and profound narrative to drive consensus growth.
