On November 10, Coinmarketcap data showed that the market capitalization of SOL once exceeded $100 billion, surpassing the traditional listed company Pioneering Group and ranking 192nd among the 20,666 assets globally; on November 11, according to data from the 8marketcap website, the market capitalization of SOL fell back to $97.78 billion, with a 7-day increase of as high as 27.83%, ranking 199th among the 20,666 assets globally and 4th in terms of cryptocurrency market capitalization. At the same time, practitioners from institutions such as Bitwise, Standard Chartered Bank, and Coinbase have expressed high affirmation for the subsequent development of the Solana ecosystem.
Overview of Market Outlook: Solana is the Future
After the FTX collapse incident in 2022, the heat of the Solana ecosystem once plummeted, and the SOL price once fell below $10 (December 30, 2022), but with the continuous construction by the official and the unremitting efforts of Solana ecosystem developers and project parties, the Solana ecosystem has finally ushered in a revival relying on the development of multiple sectors such as RWA, DePIN, DeFi, and MEME coins.
In addition, considering the "capital bloodline" of Solana in the previous financing stage, countless investment institutions, traditional financial institutions, and even relevant departments of the US political and economic sectors have a positive attitude towards it, and many institutions and individuals have spoken out in support of the Solana ecosystem. The representative views are as follows:
The lowest point of the SOL price occurred 2 months after the FTX collapse
The President of The ETF Store: Predicts that Several New Spot Cryptocurrency ETFs, Including SOL, Will Be Filed This Week
Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, wrote in a post: "I predict that issuers will file several new spot cryptocurrency ETF applications this week, including XRP, SOL, and ADA. Assuming multiple issuers are well-prepared for the election results, it's harmless to get a bit more aggressive now."
Arthur Hayes: Solana Will Be the "High Beta Bitcoin" During the US Election
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, previously stated in early November that he was bullish on Solana before the US election, calling it a "high beta Bitcoin" in the Unchained podcast. He explained that Solana is a good choice because it has strong liquidity, and if Bitcoin performs well, Solana is likely to rise.
Furthermore, Hayes said that in the long run, who wins the US election does not matter, as the primary impact on digital assets will be the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates on November 7.
Hayes also said that he is more optimistic about SOL than ETH, as he believes Ethereum is currently "too slow" and needs to change the narrative to improve people's perception of its recent poor performance. He pointed out that Solana currently occupies the "mind share", moves quickly, and is likely to outperform Bitcoin when the market is booming, while Ethereum and Bitcoin have "the same beta coefficient", or even slightly lower.
Trump's Victory is Beneficial to Solana and Bitcoin
Previously, with Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election, a large number of tokens and prediction activities related to Trump quickly emerged on the Solana (SOL) blockchain, demonstrating the deep integration of blockchain and political events. At the same time, the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, which differs from traditional polls, successfully predicted Trump's victory by focusing on capital flows and changes in market sentiment, making it an effective reference for analyzing political situations.
Furthermore, it is believed that Trump's successful election will lead to crypto-friendly policies, directly benefiting Solana and Bitcoin - as an important platform for US-based DeFi and Non-Fungible Token projects, Solana will attract more innovative projects and capital inflows under a relaxed regulatory environment, which is expected to accelerate user growth and capital aggregation. Moreover, as a US-based blockchain platform, Solana is expected to obtain SOL ETF applications with Trump's election, further enhancing its influence in the capital market.
Coinbase: Solana's On-Chain Transaction Ecosystem Profitability Second Only to Stablecoins and Layer 1 Network Fees
Coinbase analysts pointed out in a report that MEME tokens have been the core narrative of this bull market and the best-performing cryptocurrency sector (measured by total market capitalization growth) this year. Most MEME coin activities have occurred on Solana, mainly around the increasing popularity of pump.fun as the primary MEME coin launch platform. To date, over 3 million tokens have been issued on pump.fun. The dominance of Solana's transaction-related activities is reflected in their contribution to the network's transaction fees, accounting for over 82% of all non-voting fees paid on the network.
In addition to pure network fees, Solana's token issuance and trading flows also capture high-value. If the Solana on-chain transaction ecosystem is viewed as an "independent financial category", it is currently ranked third in profitability, second only to stablecoins and Layer 1 network fees. The report states: "Solana's transaction-related activities typically account for 75%-90% of the chain's transaction fees, far exceeding other networks like Ethereum, Base, and Arbitrum. While L2 solutions also show growth and innovation, they often face different scalability challenges and user fragmentation issues compared to Solana, whose fee dynamics and user activity patterns remain distinct."
Bitwise CEO: Solana's Market Cap Expected to Exceed $100 Billion
On November 10, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley wrote that Solana's market capitalization is about to exceed $100 billion, and currently, there are only three cryptocurrency assets with a market capitalization at this level (note: USDT is not included). On that day, the market capitalization of SOL indeed broke through $100 billion, ranking it the 4th largest cryptocurrency asset.
Standard Chartered Bank Analyst: It Seems "Inevitable" That SOL Will Hit a New High by the End of the Year, Potentially Outperforming Bitcoin
Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick predicted that Bitcoin will continue to rise by the end of this year, "easily reaching" $100,000 before certain Bitcoin options expire on December 27. It is worth mentioning that he previously successfully predicted that Bitcoin would reach $80,000 before the US presidential election.
"I'm forecasting Bitcoin at $125,000 by year-end, which is the next level, although I note that many Trump-related trades peaked around the January 20 inauguration after the 2016 election... So if Bitcoin doesn't make it to $125,000 by December 31, I think it will by January 20," Kendrick, the bank's head of foreign exchange and digital assets research, said in an email last weekend.
Kendrick further predicted that given the recent gains in Ethereum and Solana, the rise in Bitcoin prices is likely to "benefit all investors", and the performance of some tokens may exceed Bitcoin. Kendrick wrote: "It seems inevitable that SOL will hit a new all-time high (the previous high was $260 in November 2021) by the end of this year. ETH reaching a new all-time high (the previous high was $4,866 in November 2021) may have to wait until around the inauguration, but overall we think these assets will continue to rise, with SOL potentially performing the best."
The SOL/ETH Exchange Rate Has Recently Hit a New High
Previously, according to OKX market data, the SOL/ETH exchange rate reached 0.0724 on November 6, setting a new historical high.
Considering the above views and data, Solana's future looks bright, which is naturally inseparable from its past performance and ecosystem efforts.
Solana's Past Performance: The "MEME Coin Holy Land" with Diverse Development
Specifically, Solana's excellent past performance is mainly reflected in the following aspects:
Ecological Activity: The Monthly Active Address Count Exceeded 123 Million in October, Reaching a New Historical High
Data shows that the monthly active address count on Solana reached a historical high, exceeding 123 million in October. Compared to September, the number of unique addresses that signed transactions on Solana increased by more than 42%. In January this year, the network's active address count was less than 12.7 million. Analysts say the recent surge in Solana's activity is driven by the Memecoin craze on the network, including the support of platforms like Pump.fun and the decentralized exchange Raydium, both of which have experienced strong growth in recent months.
Additionally, the October 'State of Crypto' report released by a16z showed that Solana's monthly active addresses exceeded 100 million, while Ethereum and other EVM chains only had around 57 million, indicating higher user engagement on Solana.
Capital Inflow: Over $600 Million in Tokens Were Bridged to Solana in October, with More Than 90% Coming from Ethereum
SolanaFloor previously disclosed that over $600 million in tokens were bridged to Solana in October, with more than 90% coming from Ethereum.
Frequent Transactions: Solana's On-Chain DEX Trading Volume Surpassed Ethereum in October
According to defillama data, Solana's on-chain DEX trading volume reached $52.157 billion in October, surpassing Ethereum's DEX trading volume ($41.499 billion) during the same period.
Financing Snapshot: Solana Ecosystem DApps Raised a Total of $173 Million in Q3
According to a Messari report, institutional investment in Solana native blockchain applications rebounded in the third quarter of 2024. 29 Solana-based decentralized applications (DApps) collectively raised $173 million in funding, an increase of more than 54% from the previous quarter. Although the number of funding rounds decreased by 37%, this investment represents the largest amount on the Solana chain since the second quarter of 2022. It is reported that the asset management giant Franklin Templeton plans to launch a money market fund on Solana.
Offline Expansion: Solana Gift Cards Have Been Launched in Retail Stores Across Switzerland
According to previous disclosure by SolanaFloor, Solana gift cards have been launched in retail stores across Switzerland, and after purchase and activation, the tokens will be stored offline in the Cryptonow wallet. This shows that Solana has also made significant efforts in expanding into the offline market.
Liquidity Injection: cbBTC Launched on Solana
Coinbase previously announced that its cbBTC has been launched on Solana, which is also the first token issued by Coinbase on Solana.
Meme Stronghold: The Total Market Cap of Meme Coins on Solana Exceeded $15 Billion, Reaching a New Historical High
According to the latest data disclosed by Solana Floor, the total market cap of meme coins on Solana has exceeded $15 billion, reaching a new historical high.
Regarding the future development of the Solana ecosystem, its official personnel are also confident, but it still faces considerable challenges.
The Future and Concerns of Solana: Large-Scale Synchronous Composability vs. Centralization of Power
Regarding the future development of the Solana ecosystem, Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko previously provided detailed explanations in an interview.
He mentioned the unique position of the Solana ecosystem in the blockchain field and compared its deployment with L2 scaling solutions and other L1 blockchain systems.
Solana's Advantages and Challenges Coexist: The Inevitable Path to Achieving Large-Scale Synchronous Composability
Previously, Anatoly Yakovenko asked, "How would the vitality of the Ethereum ecosystem be if it weren't for the contribution of the L2 solution Base?"
This question was raised while observing the growth indicators of Base, especially in terms of user activity and trading volume. He then elaborated in detail: "In my view, scalability, infrastructure focus, and transaction efficiency are Solana's three main advantages," and he also recognized the challenges Solana faces in the context of the continuous evolution of blockchain technology and the further development of the platform.
Yakovenko emphasized Solana's unique architecture, with the goal of democratizing access to transaction validation. Unlike traditional finance, Solana allows anyone to set up validators and submit transactions directly, bypassing intermediaries. This level of decentralization is difficult for traditional finance to replicate. Although this functionality exists, he also acknowledged that effectively scaling it remains a challenge.
Yakovenko compared Solana with Ethereum and various L2 solutions, highlighting the trade-offs between L1 and L2. L2 solutions often use centralized sequencers for low-latency transaction ordering. However, these may lead to the same congestion problems as L1 chains. While L2 is often seen as a short-term solution to congestion, it faces scaling bottlenecks when multiple applications or markets use them.
He emphasized that Solana's strategic focus is to build a robust L1 chain that can support high throughput without the need for L2 solutions.
Another key factor is synchronous composability, where multiple applications can interact in real-time on a single chain. He believes this is crucial for DeFi, and monolithic chains or application-specific L2s cannot support this level of composability, limiting scalability. Solana's last competitive advantage lies precisely in this: it is fully committed to large-scale synchronous composability, which sets it apart from Ethereum and L2 chains.
Furthermore, Solana's advantage lies in its execution. While Ethereum is expanding through L2, Solana's development remains focused on perfecting its L1. He acknowledged that one day, blockchains will provide Solana-like functionality and offer faster iterations, but for now, Solana's pace of improvement puts it far ahead of the competition. The core of Solana's potential lies in refining its infrastructure to support fairer and more open transaction processing, to realize a truly decentralized future, which will make Solana one of the leading blockchains in the coming years.
Of course, the issue of power centralization remains one of the market's concerns about the Solana ecosystem, as evidenced by the recent representative views of Snowden.
Snowden: Calls for Decentralization of Solana, Questioning VC Influence on Solana
Edward Snowden, the "Prism Gate" whistleblower, discussed the issue of decentralization at the Near Redacted conference in Bangkok. When discussing topics such as cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology, Snowden used Solana as an example, describing it as "born in prison" because it has received a large amount of VC funding, which means that financial support may hinder its blockchain network's ability to operate independently.
While acknowledging Solana's rapid growth, he also expressed concern that too much ownership has been ceded to investors. However, he also pointed out that Solana may "achieve something" in the future.
Summary: The Solana Ecosystem's Endpoint Is Far from Reached
As of the time of writing, the Solana price has returned to around $210, and its market capitalization has once again approached $100 billion. Meanwhile, according to information from the 8marketcap website, Solana's market capitalization is currently about 6.18% of Bitcoin's, and about 26.17% of Ethereum's.
And after the potential of ETH, DeFi, and even more areas is further explored, the Solana ecosystem may have the opportunity to truly rival Ethereum, becoming a genuine "Ethereum killer".
Solana VS ETH VS BTC Market Cap
