The market is seeing a surge of betting on Polymarket's new wager: "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in 2024?". In the post-election period, Polymarket is regaining trading volume, capitalizing on Bitcoin's latest surge above $89,604.
Bets on Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 mark on Polymarket are increasing, leading to a spike in the "Yes" token. Similar to the US election results, the imminent feasible event will drive betting activity. Latecomers will have to join the "Yes" token at a higher price.
The market is witnessing a strong wave of bets on Bitcoin's ability to reach the six-figure price level. As of the time of writing, the probability of "Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2024" has increased to 61%. However, this rate can change rapidly, reflecting the greed and FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) trend present in the spot market.
This bet has a trading volume of $2.9 million, which is 1,000 times smaller than the scale of the political market. At this scale, the bet can be more volatile or even susceptible to whales.
BTC prices are extremely volatile and can change within minutes. The current markets do not achieve the predictive power of political bets, so the odds are more likely to be estimates. Some markets show increasing demand and changing odds, which could serve as a self-fulfilling signal for BTC. The bet for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 in November has increased from 33% to 46% within a few minutes and could be the next bet to attract buyers and traders.
The remaining small bets do not attract "whales" with million-dollar investments. For the bet on BTC exceeding $100,000 in 2024, the largest "No" bet holds 263,197 shares, while the largest "Yes" bet holds 50,773 shares. The activity on this bet pair also revolves around small buy trades and gradual expansion, with the lowest positions being $5.
Polymarket is currently providing a convenient and low-cost platform for users to participate in BTC betting, especially with Polygon helping to reduce costs and simplify the participation process. However, direct leveraged bets on BTC are still not easily accessible to everyone, as Polymarket is free and primarily serves small-scale users, creating a testing ground for traders.
You can view the Bitcoin price here.
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Dinh Dinh
According to Cryptopolitan
