Shi Ye Talks About Hot Topics:
I had a toothache for two days, and the hospital postponed my dental appointment for three days. Even in excruciating pain, I still chose to temporarily avoid the market, as I couldn't bear it at all.
Today, I briefly looked at the market over the past few days, and it really feels like going back to last September to late October. The storyline back then was also about repeated inflation and the shattered illusion of the end of interest rate hikes.
US Treasuries are in turmoil, with the 10-year yield rising to 5%; the US dollar index has surged to 106.8; the Nasdaq has fallen to the point of questioning one's existence (a 15% drop); in contrast, Bitcoin has become the rebound king, soaring from $24,000 to $33,000.
Until now, although the plot has changed a bit, the essence is still the same: inflation is slightly recurrent, the "rate cut dream" has been postponed; US Treasuries continue to fluctuate, and the market watches on with a helpless face.
Speaking of Bitcoin and US stocks, their relationship is like two good brothers at the bar. They used to drink just as hard, but they sway differently at critical moments. Especially after the long period of volatility and adjustment, this "different frequency" is more obvious.
Bitcoin went through a full 5 months of fishing around from April to September last year, and then defiantly took off against the market. This year, Bitcoin's adjustment period is even longer, over 6 months of cultivation, as if saying: Steady, I'm brewing a big move.
So the question is, will history repeat itself? Just like the kebab stall owner occasionally asking you: Brother, want another one? Currently, Bitcoin may have a bit of last year's flavor: US stocks keep falling, the market sentiment is oscillating between "Ah, why isn't the rate cut coming?" and "Wow, inflation is back again".
Bitcoin, on the other hand, has found a counter-trend rally, but just like last year, this depends on whether liquidity and market sentiment are strong enough. If it does repeat, then sit back and enjoy the show of Bitcoin taking on the market alone; if it doesn't repeat, at least we've watched a suspense film, and we retail investors won't lose out!
Speaking of the current Bitcoin, $100,000 is the psychological Everest, and there's only one chance to cross it in a lifetime, it can't be crossed casually. After all, this is such an important milestone, the big players and the dog traders must do their homework and build up the momentum.
When both external and internal factors are set to shock mode, with macro and micro forces resonating, the moment of reaching the peak will not appear rushed. The longer it's held, the more stable it is, just like simmering chicken soup, the taste is off if the fire is not right, but rushing up will exhaust the momentum.
If it reaches $100,000 now, how can the show go on? Several technical indicators have already shown slight divergence, and rushing up now will squeeze out the future space. Plus, today is Sunday, the market sentiment is still in weekend mode, so the specific trend will depend on next week's performance.
The bullish sentiment is not like a power bank, it can't last for two weeks. The next step of retracing would actually be more beneficial to the trend, stabilizing the foothold to accumulate strength. Another script is the Buddha-like rise: small steps slowly upwards, steadier and with a longer-term view.
Although this bullish wave has seen a lot of incremental capital inflow within the market, don't forget that last October, Bitcoin went from $32,000 to $38,000 in a full month. If it wasn't for the ETF delay, it would have erupted earlier.
This time, even if it's a step-by-step rise, it has to give the Altcoins a chance, otherwise those little buddies will cry out: "Bitcoin, you're just too unethical!" In summary, the drama of reaching $100,000 is not to be rushed. What needs to be panned, pan; what needs to be stabilized, stabilize. Wait until the internal and external market conditions are in sync, and the big players and dog traders will put on the best historical performance.
Shi Ye Looks at the Trend:
After Bitcoin reached a high of $93,000, the uptrend has slowed down due to the Federal Reserve's remarks excluding the possibility of rate cuts. The current trend has formed a downward trend, and the possibility of adjustment has increased compared to before. It is suggested to pay attention to the price fluctuations within the box range, and refer to the historical highs and lows as support and resistance.
Simply based on the trend of the 60-day and 120-day moving averages, through real-time chart analysis, flexibly adjust the position.
Resistance Reference:
First Resistance: $90,300
Second Resistance: $91,500
Support Reference:
First Support: $89,500
Second Support: $88,400
Recommendation for Today:
Even if it breaks through $90.3K today, due to the existence of the downward trend line, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the trading volume increases synchronously, and observe whether it breaks through the trend line and completes the retest of the trend reversal.
If it falls below the first support again, it will enter the area of intensified downward trend. At this time, you can regard the 120-day moving average and the first support as the current important support area.
After forming a lower shadow on the 120-day moving average, a small rebound appears, and it currently needs to stabilize above the 60-day moving average to have the possibility of breaking through $90K again. Once it falls below the 120-day moving average, it needs to pay attention to the space below the $88K area.
Intraday, you can temporarily maintain a rebound view, but within a certain rebound range, you can also consider trying a short position, and flexibly adjust the trading strategy. Pay attention to the risk of profit-taking sell-offs, be alert to the possible adjustments of the overheated market, and don't be blindly bullish. Objectively examine the market and trade rationally.
Shi Ye's Wave Preset on 11.17:
Long Entry Reference: $87,000 light long, if it falls back to around $86,300, continue to long, Target: $88,400-$89,500
Short Entry Reference: $93,300-$93,500 area short, Target: $91,500-$90,300
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