Author:S4mmy's Web3 Snippets
Compiled by: TechFlow
I will use my 10 years of experience in traditional finance and corporate sectors to help you break down complex problems into easily understandable bite-sized content.
After the announcement of the presidential election results, the price of Bit increased sharply, with the expectation that Trump will take office in January.
Last week, the price of Bit rose 35% and reached $90,000 before a slight pullback. The data is from Trading View.
The trading volume of Bit-related products reached $38 billion.
BlackRock's Bit ETF has surpassed the Gold ETF and the market capitalization of Silver.
On the corporate side:
MicroStrategy currently holds over $20 billion in Bit, and has purchased an additional $2 billion worth of Bit at market prices.
On the government side, there is a proposal suggesting that the US government purchase 200,000 Bit per year for the next five years, which would make them hold 6% of the total supply by 2030.
Currently, the US is the country holding 213,000 Bit, with the government holding 2.2% of the total supply, but this proportion may increase.
Market indicators to watch:
Pay attention to the objective indicators of market turnaround:
Global liquidity (using M2 supply as a reference)
Tracking certain related assets or indicators - M2 supply (3-month offset) is highly correlated with Bit price.
Data source: Zero Hedge.
What does this mean? This is actually a reference indicator for global liquidity.Lyn Alden and Raoul Pal's theory suggests that when liquidity in the market becomes abundant and is invested in assets, these economic decisions have a 3-month lag. This correlation indicates that if Bit continues to track M2 and does not deviate significantly, we may see Bit prices reach $100,000 by the end of the year.
Fear and Greed Index (69, Nice)
Source: Coin Glass
When using various indices, be aware of the differences in their methodologies, as some indices are more sensitive than others. Coin Stats provides a relatively reasonable solution that matches the actual market situation.
Coinbase wallet downloads increased by 12% in the last 24 hours
Historically, when Coinbase becomes a top app on the Apple App Store or Google Play, this is usually an important market indicator and is worth paying attention to.
Currently, Coinbase is ranked 81st on the Apple App Store.
Bit's Google Trends Index is at "79"
Source: Google Trends This is an indicator worth watching, as we cannot determine what the "new 100" will be - although the current search volume is 79% of the May 2021 peak, this cycle may see significant growth as more users enter the crypto market.
Venture capital funding levels in the crypto space
Source: DeFi Llama We can at least see that the overall trend of funding is rising, so when these funding levels approach or exceed the $7 billion in October 2021, it may be nearing the market top. Bit reached its peak in November 2021, which may mean the market will have a few months of lag.
Exchange fund flows remain neutral
At market tops or bottoms, net exchange flows typically experience violent fluctuations. Currently, the fund flows remain neutral, indicating that many investors are satisfied with holding spot or on-chain investments.
YouTube views of crypto-related content
As regular traders see Bit and cryptocurrencies being featured on major news channels, crypto channels may become the primary source of information for non-crypto users. Contrarian plays on mainstream media information may also be an effective strategy for selling near the market top - Rolling Stone magazine was a good indicator at the Non-Fungible Token bear market bottom.
Other indicators to watch:
Bit halving events and the time difference to historical highs - supply shocks have been embedded in the demand dynamics of the market, and Bit miners also hold large inventories.
Technical analysis indicators like RSI, Pi and MACD suggest that some crypto assets may be oversold or undervalued.
Market Value to Realized Value ratio: A ratio of typically 3.7 usually indicates the top of the crypto market cycle. It is necessary to compare market prices with realized values (i.e., the weighted average of the last on-chain transaction prices).
Please check the latest Modern Markets podcast for a broader discussion.
I will gradually compile an analysis report to track these indicators and provide you with weekly updates - please stay tuned.
