Master Translator Discusses Hot Topics:
First, let's talk about the Fear and Greed Index. This week, it has soared to an unprecedented 90. It has officially been declared that the market has entered a state of extreme greed, as if everyone has become the Nasreddin Hodja of the crypto world.
However, history tells us that, in the personal opinion of the Master Translator, this is not necessarily a good thing. There have been three instances in the past few years where the index has reached 90 or even higher: the end of June 2019, the end of October 2020 to the beginning of February 2021, and the beginning of March 2024.
Looking back at the historical performance, the peaks in 2019 and 2024 were like the climax of a bubble drama. They came quickly and went just as fast, with the market being quickly brought back to reality from the extreme fantasy of "I can definitely get rich".
The only time the state of extreme greed lasted for more than ten weeks was the bull market from October 2020 to the first quarter of 2021, when the Master Translator remembers the Greed Index even reaching 95, with the market sentiment being completely off the charts. The result? The enthusiasm of all the retail investors was drained dry before the market finally calmed down.
So the question is, is this a quick reversal, or a prolonged celebration of a bull market peak? History may be reminding us that in a volatile market transitioning from bear to bull, extreme greed is like puffing out your cheeks - it can't be sustained.
But once a bull market peak is reached, it becomes a marathon of emotions, until everyone is exhausted at the finish line.
However, in the face of the ebb and flow of market emotions, we shouldn't take it too seriously. Perhaps in the end, we can only sigh: "Overthought it, the 'cabbage' (retail investors) will always be the 'cabbage', just a more 'self-seasoned' version this time!"
And the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment of American investors is like a has-been internet celebrity. Last night's surge from the US market open to the early morning was essentially ignited by the explosive news of stocks like $MSTR collectively buying BTC.
But now it seems that the fire has not even been stoked yet, and it's already starting to cool down, turning into a small retail exodus of "exiting liquidity".
Even after briefly surging to $92K, Bitcoin's price is still like a traffic-hungry celebrity hovering around $90K. The excitement of the election has already subsided, and although the MSTR news caused a stir for a while, it doesn't seem to have been able to keep Bitcoin hard for too long (you know how it is these days, being hard is difficult).
Of course, the Master Translator still doesn't recommend rushing to short right now, as even though the sentiment is cooling down, the market's crazy antics are not yet rewritten, and you never know when they might pull another big move and make you question your life.
In the past few days, Bitcoin's turnover rate has reached a rare low on the weekends, and has even decreased after the US stock market opened. This indicates that the high turnover triggered by the price increase on the weekend has weakened, and the current main force is the short-term long positions with profits above $80,000. The support level is between $87,000 and $91,000, and although the market has not yet panicked, it still needs time to consolidate.
As for the URPD (Realized Price Distribution) gaps that many people have mentioned at $77K, $78K, and $82.5K for Bitcoin, although the price may not necessarily need to drop to fill them, history has shown that these gaps will eventually be filled.
Master Translator's Trend Outlook:
Last night, Bitcoin also experienced violent ups and downs due to the dual impact of US stocks being affected by concerns about slowing the pace of interest rate hikes and expectations of relaxed regulation.
Currently, the market has turned to an upward trend due to the improved sentiment of institutional investors, and has held the low point in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the trend in the converging formation to grasp the direction.
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: $91,500
Second Resistance: $92,300
Support Levels:
First Support: $90,400
Second Support: $89,500
Recommendations for Today:
Intraday, it is necessary to pay attention to whether Bitcoin can hold the support line below, and at the same time observe the breakthrough situation of the resistance in the past range-bound area with dense chips. When the support at the 120-day moving average and the downward trend line is held, the possibility of breaking through the resistance range will increase.
In the more ideal case, if the price does not touch the second support, it will be more favorable for the upward trend. While holding the first support level, the $90.4K to $90.8K range can be defined as the super short-term phased entry interval, and the expectation of a rebound should be maintained.
Currently, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the key support level can be held. If the support is held, the rebound view should be maintained; if the support is broken, a trend reversal should be considered.
Master Translator's Wave Forecast on 11.19:
Long Entry: Around $90,400 with light position, directly long if it pulls back to $89,500. Target: $91,500-$92,300
Short Entry: $91,500-$91,800 with light position, directly short around $92,300. Target: $90,400-$89,500
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