The Crypto Market Enters a Period of Extreme Greed: Investment Opportunities and Risks Behind the Bull Market
Currently, the crypto market's sentiment index has soared to 90, reaching the so-called "extreme greed" state. This high-risk emotional state means that the market is experiencing a rapid upward cycle, but it also means that the risk of a bubble is gradually increasing. So, is the current crypto market the final frenzy before the bubble bursts, or the beginning of a bull market? Let's analyze it through historical data and some key indicators.
Fear and Greed: Repetition of History
In the past few years, the crypto market's fear and greed index has reached 90 or even higher several times. Especially at the end of June 2019, the end of October 2020 to the beginning of February 2021, and the beginning of March 2024, these were landmark moments. After the first two times the extreme greed index reached 90, the market experienced a rapid correction. While from 2020 to 2021, this state lasted for more than ten weeks, and even briefly exceeded 95, indicating that the greed sentiment during the bull market peak can last for a considerable period.
Historically, extreme greed usually appears during the volatile period when a bear market turns into a bull market, but in a true bull market, this sentiment can last for a long time until the market sentiment is completely exhausted. So, how will the market perform this time? Will it continue to rise, or will it eventually see a significant correction?
Driven by this extreme greed, Bitcoin's performance has been particularly impressive. Bitcoin's recent trend has been very healthy, and the market seems unconcerned about a correction. Analyzing the daily chart, although we see short-term fluctuations, the long-term upward trend of Bitcoin remains clear. Many people can't help but ask: Can Bitcoin reach $100,000?
Many analyses believe that Bitcoin is already close to its historical high, and the room for further growth has shrunk. However, given the current market sentiment and trends, a breakthrough of the $100,000 mark is not impossible. Especially in the current economic environment, many investors' interest in crypto assets has surged, and the speed of capital inflow into the Bitcoin market is also accelerating.
The Rise of Altcoins: Opportunities and Risks Coexist
In addition to Bitcoin, the performance of some Altcoins has also been quite eye-catching. Projects like Om have driven the entire RWA track to a surge, and public chains like HBAR and XTZ have also seen significant rallies. The skyrocketing prices of these projects have made them highly attractive to investors.
Speaking of Altcoins, we can't ignore Ethereum. Although many people believe that Ethereum's performance has always lagged behind Bitcoin, and even when Bitcoin reached $90,000, ETH was still hovering around $3,000. However, Ethereum's potential has not disappeared.
In the previous bull markets, Ethereum's strong performance was closely related to the rise of ICOs and DeFi, but with the changes in the market, Ethereum's position has also been challenged. Especially with the rise of competitors like SOL, many investors have started to turn to other public chains.
However, in the long run, Ethereum still has unique advantages, especially with the upcoming ETF staking and the continuous expansion of the DeFi ecosystem. In the future, Ethereum may experience a catch-up process, especially in the case of capital inflows. Therefore, although there is currently no direct impetus for it to rise significantly, Ethereum still has good investment opportunities in the medium term.
Different Stages of the Bull Market: Seizing Opportunities Does Not Guarantee Easy Profits
The bull market is not smooth sailing, especially for retail investors, who find it difficult to capture the dividends in every stage. From last year's Meme token frenzy, AI and DEPIN tracks, to the recent hype around emerging public chains like Solana, TRON, and Sui, each wave of opportunities in the bull market has its unique performance.
However, the process of a bull market is long, and there will always be unexpected fluctuations and traps along the way. For example, the recent incident of a DEX platform being shut down, causing some investors' profits to vanish instantly. This reminds us that opportunities and risks coexist in a bull market, and retail investors often overlook potential traps when chasing short-term returns.
Trend-Driven: How to Find the Right Investment Strategy in the Bull Market
The logic of this bull market seems somewhat chaotic. Many traditional rational investors are still trying to find the so-called "value projects" through data and fundamental analysis, but often fail to get the expected returns. In contrast, some seemingly unreliable "meme coins" and high-risk projects often bring unexpected gains.
This was verified in the recent surge of the "religious coin" leader SpX. Although these projects are often not well-received, the push of market sentiment has made them a part of the bull market.
In summary, in the current market, retail investors need to adjust their mindset more flexibly, following the trends rather than sticking to traditional investment thinking. Don't be distracted by short-term noise, learn to accept market changes, and make decisions at the right time. The opportunities in the bull market are rare, and the key is how to seize them and avoid potential risks.
Q4 Market Outlook: Cherish the Current Opportunity
At the moment, the market sentiment is reaching its peak, and the Q4 market may become the most important upward opportunity this year. For investors, this is a precious moment. With the continuous inflow of funds, market volatility will continue to intensify, with both opportunities and risks coexisting. The key is how to find your position in this wave of upward momentum and capture the wealth dividends that belong to you.
Finally, there is actually a lot more that hasn't been written, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions, which are often not something a single article can encompass.
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