1 The problem with the stock market is the lack of confidence, so can it be revived by stimulation?
Of course, the stock market needs confidence.
There are two types of confidence: long-term confidence and short-term confidence.
The establishment of long-term confidence requires fundamental institutional guarantees.
I still quote the words of Mr. Buffett: the reason why he is long-term confident in the US stock market and US companies is that he believes the US can always adhere to the market economy and the rule of law.
Whether our country has the two institutional guarantees of "market economy" and "rule of law" for long-term confidence is a matter of opinion. I can't judge. So in all my articles about the A-share market, I have never said that the A-share market will see a long-term bull market like the US stock market.
All I've said about the A-share market is short-term or at most medium-term.
And the short-term and medium-term performance is very likely to be stimulated by external conditions (either from the government or from speculative capital), rather than the fundamentals of economic development and institutions.
If certain stimulus measures are introduced, short-term confidence can also be stimulated: the saying "three green candles change three views" refers to this kind of short-term confidence.
Such examples are always repeating, not only seen in the history of the A-share market, but also occurring in other countries with similar systems (such as Vietnam).
2 How do you view the Aleo of zero-knowledge proof?
I think I've shared this project in an article before.
However, after reading some reports on zero-knowledge proof recently, I have some new views on this field.
Overall, I still hold a relatively conservative attitude towards the first-layer blockchain, and whether these projects are good or not depends on what their core functions are.
Specifically, this project is essentially a smart contract platform, but with the feature of zero-knowledge proof.
I actually think that a specialized tool, component or middleware for handling zero-knowledge proof may have broader applications. Such tools, components or middleware can be more modularly combined with existing smart contract blockchains, making them more flexible and more focused.
I have not participated in this project.
3 Will there be a violent bull market this year?
Readers often leave messages asking whether there will be a bull market this year or next year, and especially emphasize whether there will be a "violent" bull market.
I don't know either.
But I suggest that as investors, we'd better not have such ideas, and just let things take their course.
During the bear market, learn well, and during the downturn, layout well. As for when the bull market will come and what will happen after it comes, just take the attitude of "doing our best and leaving the rest to fate".
Also from the perspective of metaphysics: often the more we expect something, the less likely it is to come. And if what we expect really comes, it is completely the blessing from our past life, then we can only ask ourselves, not others.
4 How is TRON?
The biggest imagination space of TRON is to expect to convert Telegram's vast user base into TRON's user base. According to relevant data, Telegram's daily active users are close to 200 million, and if only 1% of these 200 million users become TRON users, it would be amazing.
This imagination space is indeed large.
But I am skeptical of this reasoning.
The reason is simple: what urgent need or at least 1% of the need can only be met by TRON among these seemingly vast users?
I don't see it now.
Some readers may say payment.
But if it's payment, blockchain technology is not needed, traditional mobile Internet (WeChat, Alipay) can do it, and the user experience is better. In this case, why must TRON be used?
Apart from payment, the other things that can be thought of are probably entertainment, gambling or speculation.
If it's entertainment, mobile Internet games are now far superior to chain games in terms of user experience, and chain games have not yet developed their own killer application scenarios.
And gambling and speculation, I don't think they are high-frequency urgent needs for the vast user base.
So the some small applications currently active on TRON, I think they are just some experimental, small-scale active applications, and they are unlikely to convert Telegram's users into TRON users on a large scale.
