Bitcoin has reached $96,999, just one step away from $100,000.
One coin, one villa - this once-imaginary dream has now become a reality, though it may be a small, low-end villa, it has still been basically achieved.
Sadly, most people have already cashed out their coins.
At this level of increase, some interesting things have happened.
1. Short sellers have been continuously liquidated, constantly adding margin until they are zeroed out. This is the "beware of being squeezed" that I have repeatedly mentioned in my previous articles, especially for Bitcoin.
2. Altcoins have been continuously declining, with Bitcoin heavily draining them.
Interestingly, many people have actually lost money, with a very high proportion.
Fortunately, the altcoins in the Wang Ge community have started to reduce their positions since mid-month, selling at high prices and keeping a good base position. This approach, which I have also mentioned the reasons for in my public account, is mainly because under the situation of BTC absorbing blood, it is reasonable for altcoins to supplement the rise, but the risk is also greater, so reducing positions before the BTC pullback is an unwilling move.
3. MEME has plummeted, with a large number of retail investors being trapped.
Many of the views and trends mentioned in my recent four articles have been validated.
Bitcoin surged to $90,000, rising nearly $10,000 overnight.
Bitcoin has reached $93,899, setting a new all-time high!
Trump's victory, Bitcoin breaks through $76,000 - some things you need to know.
Especially in yesterday's article, I reminded everyone to be wary of shorting, as Bitcoin is likely to surge further to around $95,850. This position has now been breached, and by more than 1,000 points, but the altcoins have generally not followed the rise.
Looking back at the end of last month, I reminded everyone to pay attention to the large position opening around 61,500, indicating a bullish direction.
And yesterday's short positions, although accumulated a lot, did not show a similar "large position" as around 61,500, which means the likelihood of a breakthrough is greater, and $95,850 is the position where most retail investors are close to being liquidated.
I found that even after telling everyone the reasons for the rise and the key levels, many people still opened short positions yesterday, which is the mentality of the "dumb money".
Similarly, after the release of yesterday's article, MEME started to plummet, especially the MEME in the Bitfinex innovation zone, with huge declines, and it is estimated that a large number of people will be trapped again. When everyone is making money, it is only when the money really ends up in your pocket that it is truly real.
What have the "dumb money" learned in these years?
The answer is: nothing. The 80/20 rule of the market will never change.
Back to the crypto market.
With Bitcoin reaching this level, I no longer expect it to continue rising, but rather to consolidate and slightly decline, but the whales will certainly not follow my wishes.
It is expected that there should be a rapid upward spike before considering a high short position, and at this stage, the short position should be small, and spot can be sold.
Last night, I drew a line for Bitcoin, specifically: Bitcoin is most likely to break through an extremely high point, then quickly fall back (definitely fast), and then consolidate for a period of time before falling again, which can be confirmed as a bearish trend, and do not consider a reversal before such indicators appear.
If it can consolidate and slightly decline, returning to around $80,000, and repair the confidence in the altcoin market, the bull market may come.
Trump's election, previously a decline, then a rise, the election is a positive factor.
Trump taking office, previously a rise, then a decline, the positive factors being realized may be negative.
In any case, when it falls, falls to a certain extent, and key indicators are seen, that is the safe time to buy the dips.
Sincere advice: The end of finance is harvesting, and the harvest only collects the "dumb money", those who crave attention and chase emotions.
Note: There are risks in market forecasting, and this analysis only represents my personal views.
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