This article analyzes and compares the trends of BTC, ETH, SOL, and altcoins in the bull markets of 2021, 2023, and 2024, as well as the timing of their rallies. The full text is over 3,000 words, and it will take a lot of patience to read through it, but you can scroll down to the conclusion, and I believe you will gain a good understanding after reading the entire article. Thank you.
After experiencing bull and bear cycles, witnessing the rise and fall of many tracks, the crypto market is a stage of ever-changing possibilities. Here, knowledge is constantly evolving, and only by continuous learning can one keep up with the market rhythm and reap the rewards within one's cognitive scope. As the saying goes, "one day in the crypto world is like a year in the real world," this rapid iteration is the unique charm of the crypto market. The views are for reference, and if you have different opinions, feel free to discuss and exchange ideas. Thank you (all the price trends are based on weekly candles).
From the end of 2020 to the first half of 2021: 519
As shown in the image:
The first wave, from 2020.10.5 to 2020.12.21: BTC surged significantly, while ETH fluctuated and rose, and this stage saw ETH being relatively weak from the K-line perspective;
The second wave, from 2020.12.28 to 2021.2.22: BTC rallied and then corrected and fluctuated, while ETH initiated a significant rally with mild fluctuations;
The third wave, from 2021.3.1 to 2021.5.19: BTC consolidated at high levels, while ETH launched a major uptrend until the 519 crash when they both declined;
BTC rallied significantly in the early stage, while ETH surged in the mid-to-late stage. Let's also look at the performance of different altcoin tracks.
Platform tokens like BNB, MX, and HT: Initiated major uptrends from 2021.2.1, with early fluctuating gains.
Meme track: Doge rallied significantly towards the end of the first wave, while SHIB, after fluctuating and consolidating since its Uniswap listing in August 2020, officially launched its major uptrend in January 2021 until the 519 crash;
Public chain track: SOL, AVAX, CHR, ADA, DOT, ATOM, FTM, ENJ, and VET all initiated their major uptrends in the second wave starting from 2020.12.28. THETA, NEAR, and INJ started in the late stage of the first wave;
Gaming and metaverse track: AXS, MANA, and SAND fluctuated and gained in the first wave, then launched major uptrends in the second wave;
DeFi: UNI, SUSHI, MKR, 1INCH, ALPHA, and COMP all started their uptrends in the second wave, with a few exceptions that fluctuated and gained in the first wave;
Other tracks: For example, the then-hot FIL and the old coin ETC only started their major uptrends in the third wave.
Summary
In this major uptrend, BTC rallied first, reaching new historical highs repeatedly, while ETH still fluctuated and gained, until the mid-to-late stage when ETH finally caught up and then led the altcoin tracks to rally one after another. The tracks listed here are not exhaustive, as most of the major tracks saw excellent secondary rallies, providing many money-making opportunities, especially in MEME, L1, and gaming.
Note: Most of the projects listed here were listed on Binance in 2019-2020. For example, the metaverse, gaming, and other tracks that were heavily hyped in 2021 were already listed on Binance in 2020, which demonstrates Binance's grasp of new market narratives and tracks. As for public chains, this has always been a popular narrative to trade.
The second major uptrend in 2021: July to the end of 2021
From the chart, we can see that from July to November 2021, the major uptrend saw BTC and ETH rally almost in sync.
Meme track: Although Doge did not see a significant rally in the second half of the year, SHIB rallied 10x after the 519 crash, and the Meme track also saw the emergence of many good projects like BABYDOGE and FLOKI;
Public chain track: In the second half of the year, AVAX, SOL, CHR, ENJ, ADA, and FTM, among others, reached new highs;
Gaming and metaverse track: AXS, SAND, MANA, and RACA all reached new highs;
DeFi track: Basically went quiet in the second half of the year, with no new hype-driven rallies;
Other tracks: Such as FIL, the old coins ETC and BCH, did not see new hype or rallies. And that's how the whole of 2021 ended.
Summary of the 2021 bull market altcoin performance:
Macro background: After the 2020 US election, 2021 was a period of monetary easing, as the Fed unleashed its largest stimulus since 2008 due to the pandemic. In this macro environment of abundant liquidity, BTC rallied from $10,000 in October 2020 to nearly $69,000, a 7x increase, while ETH rallied from $340 in October to over $4,870, a 14x increase.
As for altcoins, it was indeed a broad-based rally in the first half of 2021 before the 519 crash. However, in the second half of the year, many tracks went quiet and started to siphon off market liquidity.
PS: It depends on how one defines this altcoin bull market rally - whether 5-10x or 10x and above. If that's the definition, the rally rate was around 70% or more. Certainly, many participants would say the bull market is about making 10x returns, which is not the case. Okay, let's define 30x and above as the altcoin bull market rally, and I can tell you the rally rate was at most 20%.
Only the public chain, gaming, metaverse, and Meme tracks were consistently hyped. As for DeFi, there were actually many other tracks I didn't list that were not as hot, such as music, fan tokens, and infrastructure, which either peaked or went dormant.
Moreover, the hot hype tracks like public chain, gaming, metaverse, and Meme were mostly projects that launched their secondary listings on exchanges like Binance in 2019-2020, especially those that went live on Binance in 2020, whether through direct listing or IEO. So, are the tracks that launch their secondary listings on Binance in 2022-2024 worth watching? We'll get to that later.
As for the projects that launched their primary listings on both major and minor exchanges in the 2021 bull market, how many of them are still alive today? Do you guys still remember them? If you do, you might have been trapped in them.
The third major uptrend from October 2023 to March 2024
As shown in the chart, from October 2023 to March 2024, the major uptrend saw BTC and ETH rally almost in sync. What about altcoins? After the bear market of 2022, new hot track projects have emerged, such as AI, ETH L2, and modular blockchains for L1s.
In terms of the performance of the public chain, L2, AI, gaming, and Meme tracks, the ranking of the highest-gaining projects would be: public chain = Meme > AI > gaming.
Old public chains: ETH, SOL, INJ, and CKB need no introduction;
New public chains: SEI, TIA, SUI, TAO, NTRN, 5-10x;
Meme: ORDI and SATS (Meme on BRC20), PEPE, WIF, BOME, BONK, FLOKI, 5-10x and above;
AI: ARKM, WLD (loosely related to AI), 5-10x;
Gaming: PIXEL, PORTAL, XAI, ACE, etc., 50%-2x;
Other tracks like DeFi and infrastructure: PENDEL and ID, 5-10x;
ETH L2: ARB, OP, STRK, saw gains but not significant, with METIS being the standout at 10x;
Other projects and tracks outside the above-mentioned hot narratives did not see significant gains.
Summary
Macro background: After the rate hike cycle of 2022, the Fed paused rate hikes in September 2023, coupled with the hype around BTC spot ETFs and their trading. '元宇宙' has been translated into 'metaverse'. '币圈' has been translated into 'crypto'. '喊单' has been translated into 'shill'. 'Bit' has been translated into 'Bit'. 'Block' has been translated into 'Block'. 'DeFi' has been translated into 'DeFi'. 'MEME' has been translated into 'MEME'. 'BNB' has been translated into 'BNB'. 'TRON' has been translated into 'TRON'. 'Uniswap' has been translated into 'Uniswap'. 'Sui' has been translated into 'Sui'. 'Pepe' has been translated into 'Pepe'. 'Sei' has been translated into 'Sei'. 'FLOKI' has been translated into 'FLOKI'. 'AVA' has been translated into 'AVA'. 'RACA' has been translated into 'RACA'. 'BTC' has been translated into 'BTC'. 'ETH' has been translated into 'ETH'. 'Doge' has been translated into 'Doge'. 'ADA' has been translated into 'ADA'. 'DOT' has been translated into 'DOT'. 'SOL' has been translated into 'SOL'. 'SHIB' has been translated into 'SHIB'. 'UNI' has been translated into 'UNI'. 'AVAX' has been translated into 'AVAX'. 'ATOM' has been translated into 'ATOM'. 'ETC' has been translated into 'ETC'. 'BCH' has been translated into 'BCH'. 'FIL' has been translated into 'FIL'. 'HT' has been translated into 'HT'. 'THETA' has been translated into 'THETA'. 'AXS' has been translated into 'AXS'. 'FTM' has been translated into 'FTM'. 'MKR' has been translated into 'MKR'. 'GT' has been translated into 'GT'. '1INCH' has been translated into '1INCH'. 'ENJ' has been translated into 'ENJ'. 'OP' has been translated into 'OP'. 'COMP' has been translated into 'COMP'. 'AR' has been translated into 'AR'. 'meme' has been translated into 'meme'. 'ARB' has been translated into 'ARB'. 'PEPE' has been translated into 'PEPE'. 'SUI' has been translated into 'SUI'. 'ORDI' has been translated into 'ORDI'. 'APT' has been translated into 'APT'. 'INJ' has been translated into 'INJ'. 'MX' has been translated into 'MX'. 'CKB' has been translated into 'CKB'. 'RON' has been translated into 'RON'. 'ONG' has been translated into 'ONG'. 'METIS' has been translated into 'METIS'. 'CHR' has been translated into 'CHR'. 'OKX' has been translated into 'OKX'. 'Upbit' has been translated into 'Upbit'.
The previous talk about releasing liquidity was an expansion of the table, and this time point is a contraction of the table. Naturally, market liquidity is limited, and the limited funds are concentrated on the main tracks, which cannot be compared to 2021. So it is very difficult for the altcoins to have an overall rise across the entire track, and the enduring hype narrative is still the public chain and MEME. As for the game, I personally think that the main reason is still the limited market liquidity, and the pumping of SOL and the rise of MEME on SOL have taken away too much market liquidity.
Do you guys still remember what I said before, the track projects that will be listed on the secondary market on Binance in 2022-2024 are worth paying attention to. Except for the old public chains mentioned above, the projects on other tracks are basically launched and listed on the major exchanges in 2022-2023. So we need to grasp this trading experience, and see if it will continue to be verified later.
The market situation from October 2024 to the present (sharing the current market situation is also a personal summary of the macro background, from BTC, ETH, SOL to the altcoins in various tracks)
I won't post the charts of BTC and ETH's trends, and you guys also know the gains of the altcoins in various tracks.
The only one that has taken off and surged is MEME. Even in L1, only SOL, SUI and the old public chains have done well, the rest are dead. The good news is that today, now, at the time of my writing, ETH seems to be starting to make a move.
Summary
Macro background: The current cycle started with rate cuts in September 2024, coupled with the new US president Trump who is crypto-friendly, the contraction in Q1 next year is likely to be near the end, plus the spot ETF. Although there is still no liquidity release, it is at least moving from tightening to easing, the new four years are very worth looking forward to.
The first wave is now until Q1 next year, then see if there will be a US economic recession, or other black swans, if so, then it will be another 312, and then similar to 2020-2021, at which time I will share the details.
If there is no US economic recession and a soft landing, then there will be no 312, and the subsequent will continue to play music and dance.
BTC, SOL, BNB including the new public chain SUI have already risen, driving the gains in the MEME track, the other tracks are not very active, as we analyzed before, they need ETH to make a move, and coincidentally, ETH is now making a move, it seems to be starting the second wave. (As of the time of writing, the market reaction, is it not what I said before, L1 is also exploding, this is the enduring hype narrative)
Since ETH has started the second wave of rise, given the macro background, the probability of an overall rise across the altcoin tracks is very high, but if you want to choose a track that is doing well, it is worth choosing: new and old public chains, MEME, L2 on ETH, AI-related projects (such as AI+MEME). As for the game, it's not that I don't choose it, but it may be a little later.
What the crypto market hypes is often ultimately reflected in the specific coins, so how to find and judge the tracks that the crypto market will hype next? Look at the projects listed on Binance and the news reported by the major US media.
From 2022 to now, the tracks with the most projects listed on Binance are public chains, MEME, L2, games, AI, DeFi (I don't want to write about this track, what's the matter, aren't MEME and public chains enough for you to get rich?), RWA and DEPIN (have potential), for other tracks, it's still the same, if you want to get rich, MEME, L1, games, AI, how come you can't grasp the opportunity?
In terms of grasping the new narratives and new tracks in the market, Binance is the industry's wind vane, coupled with Binance's liquidity bearing capacity, this is undoubtedly.
More importantly, it's the information from the US. Without saying more, the gains of DOGE and PNUT say it all. So you must pay attention to it. As for SOL, don't forget that this is a project made by powerful US capital and market makers, in fact, SUI, APT, OMNI, ALT and so on are all the same.
The timing and coin selection have been noted, getting on the train is not difficult, but how about getting off? For any project, you need to combine the macro background of the market, the track it belongs to, the exchange it is listed on (Binance, Coinbase, Upbit, OKX), the market maker (the nature of the market maker), the ceiling of the same track, and the prospect of the track narrative to calculate the possible valuation. There is no project that can be pumped forever, there must be a wash, even BTC is the same, the market is against human nature, only emotional FOMO is not good, very not good.
