Author: Socra, Jinse Finance
On November 22, BTC reached a high of $99,588, just a stone's throw away from the $100,000 mark. This has also pushed the total crypto market cap to a new all-time high of over $3.5 trillion, with Bitcoin's market dominance exceeding 55%. The market sentiment index shows that it is still in the "Greed" phase, with significantly increased market activity and Altcoins generally seeing large gains following the broader market trend.
However, the market has now thrown a bucket of cold water on the feverish investors, with BTC retracing below $96,000, leading to massive liquidations of long contracts, while the hype around the recently popular MEME projects has also cooled down. Although many institutions remain bullish on the market outlook, with predictions showing an 85% chance of BTC reaching $100,000 by the end of the year, there are still views that caution against being overly optimistic.
Bullish: $100,000 is just the beginning
VanEck: Reaffirms its target price of $180,000 for Bitcoin in this cycle, and believes that the current rally has just begun. The perpetual futures funding rate has remained above 10% since November 12, indicating a strengthening bullish momentum; the current 30-day moving average of the Relative Unrealized Profit level is around 0.54, which typically signals that the market is still in the early stages of the cycle and has more room to run; the search interest is only 34% of the May 2021 peak, suggesting that the speculative frenzy has not yet spread, and the re-engagement of retail investors will allow Bitcoin to rise further.
Ripple CEO predicts that cryptocurrencies in the US will thrive, and believes that Trump becoming a crypto-friendly president could improve the regulatory environment.
CryptoQuant CEO: Based on the progress of the 2017 and 2020 bull markets, Bitcoin is still in the early stages of price discovery in this bull cycle. Additionally, on-chain indicators have set the peak price of the Bitcoin cycle at $141,000.
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of this year, and could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, while Dogecoin may reach $1.
TYMIO founder Verbitskii: By the end of 2024 or early 2025, the price of Bitcoin will be between $100,000 and $120,000 - before the inauguration of President-elect Trump on January 20, 2025. With more traders joining the competition, BTC could reach $180,000 by the end of 2025.
Metafide CEO: Bitcoin will definitely reach $100,000 this year, and could exceed $250,000 next year, with $500,000 by the end of 2027 being entirely achievable.
EMJ Capital founder: Thanksgiving is typically a launchpad for a bullish period in cryptocurrencies, and a true market structure is about to form. Additionally, potential new crypto regulations by the US SEC, as well as global adoption expansion and the US strategic Bitcoin reserve, could become important catalysts for the next Bitcoin bull run.
Intelligent Alpha fund: Bitcoin will reach $140,000.
Positive Events and Expectations
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) announced plans to launch its first cash-settled Bitcoin spot price index options starting Monday, December 2.
During the past trading week (November 18 to November 22 Eastern Time), Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a record weekly net inflow of $3.38 billion.
On November 22, MicroStrategy completed a $1.5 billion convertible note offering to purchase more Bitcoin. Subsequently, the company's founder Michael Saylor hinted at further Bitcoin accumulation.
Bitcoin miner MARA completed a $1 billion convertible note financing, with the proceeds mainly used to purchase Bitcoin and repurchase existing convertible notes due in 2026.
The Times of London discussed whether pension funds should invest in Bitcoin, with plans to allocate 3% of pension funds to Bitcoin.
Over the past 7 days, the Bitcoin balance in Binance wallets decreased by 20,707.53 BTC, and Coinbase Pro decreased by 3,322.95 BTC.
Galaxy CEO: Almost all members of Trump's cabinet hold Bitcoin and are staunch supporters of digital assets.
Nasdaq-listed Anixa Biosciences' board of directors approved the purchase of Bitcoin as a reserve asset to achieve higher shareholder value.
US-listed company SAIHEAT Limited has purchased $1.5 million worth of Bitcoin and currently holds around 102 BTC, including pledged and restricted Bitcoin.
Trump's "Crypto Advisory Council" will establish the previously promised Bitcoin reserve, and is expected to provide recommendations on digital asset policies, work with Congress to advance cryptocurrency legislation, establish Trump's promised Bitcoin reserve, and coordinate among various agencies including the SEC, CFTC, and Treasury Department.
VanEck: The Trump administration will repeal restrictive measures such as the SEC's accounting pronouncements, and support broader adoption by encouraging banks to provide crypto custody solutions. Additionally, legislation allowing state-chartered banks to issue stablecoins could enhance the US's dominance in the digital asset ecosystem.
Potential Risks and Negative Factors
Bloomberg: Bitcoin's rally has stalled as it approaches the $100,000 level, and may experience consolidation in the short term. The bullish sentiment around Bitcoin is becoming extreme, and selling pressure is increasing as it nears the $100,000 milestone. Since the election, Bitcoin has been in an overbought state and is destined to stall.
On November 21, Hindenburg Research stated that it has taken a short position in MicroStrategy to hedge against its Bitcoin exposure.
Data shows that open interest in Ethereum futures has exceeded $20 billion, a new all-time high, indicating that more traders are betting on Ethereum's price decline. Meanwhile, the estimated leverage ratio (ELR) has reached a peak, reflecting a higher dependence on borrowed funds - a method that amplifies the likelihood of rapid liquidations.
Victory Securities: The macro, large-scale negative shocks to the crypto market have passed, and the risks are now more focused on the realization of expectations. Funding Rates have halved and retreated, and the short-term direction of Bitcoin is not one-sided, as bears are also accumulating strength.
Galaxy CEO: A Bitcoin breakthrough to $100,000 is inevitable, but a correction may occur. Currently, there is a large amount of leverage in the crypto market, and the crypto community has become highly leveraged, so a market correction is imminent. Stocks like MicroStrategy, whose trading is similar to Bitcoin leverage trading, may face greater adjustments.
glassnode: Bitcoin's uptrend still has room to run, but historical trajectories suggest the possibility of a significant correction.
Summary
Since Trump's election victory on November 6, Bitcoin has soared from around $70,000 to $100,000. In this approximately 20-day period, the bears have suffered heavy losses. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has rebounded to around $99,000, still reflecting the market's optimism about Bitcoin's prospects. However, compared to the market environment just a couple of weeks ago, the crypto market now has more unstable factors. Therefore, investors still need to be wary of hidden downside risks.
