Exploring the trajectory of the bull market cycle, revealing the growth trajectory of altcoins
The changing landscape of the crypto market has presented investors with distinct trajectories in each bull and bear cycle. From the strong uptrend in 2021 to the new round of rallies in 2023-2024, there are clear patterns to be observed. The following is a summary and interpretation of the key milestones, hot sectors, and future layouts of each bull market cycle.
Historical Recap: The Three Stages of the 2021 Bull Market
Stage One: BTC takes the lead, ETH gains momentum (October 2020 - May 2021)
BTC and ETH performance
In October 2020, BTC broke out first, kicking off the first wave of the uptrend, while ETH only fluctuated in response.
In the second stage (late December 2020 to February 2021), BTC gradually consolidated and adjusted, while ETH entered its main uptrend.
In the third stage (March to May 2021), ETH continued to surge, and the altcoin sector saw its heyday, followed by an overall market adjustment.
Altcoin performance
Platform coins (such as BNB, HT) led the rally, while the meme sector rose under the influence of DOGE and SHIB.
The public chain sector (such as SOL, ADA) and the metaverse (such as AXS, MANA) saw significant gains in the second stage.
The DeFi sector and established coins (such as ETC) gained catch-up opportunities in the third stage.
Summary
The first half of 2021 was a broad-based rally driven by ample liquidity, with hot spots concentrated in public chains, memes, and gaming sectors. However, in the second half of the year, capital began to differentiate, and the performance of different sectors varied significantly.
2023-2024: Characteristics and Opportunities of the New Bull Market Cycle
Main Uptrend Stage: BTC and ETH Rise in Tandem (October 2023 - March 2024)
BTC and ETH rally together
In this stage, the performance of BTC and ETH is highly correlated, with the market hype around BTC spot ETFs acting as a catalyst.
New sector projects such as AI, L2, and modular blockchains have also become hot spots.
Sector performance comparison
Public chains and memes lead the rally: Established public chains (such as ETH, SOL) and new public chains (such as SUI, TIA) perform well; meme projects (such as PEPE, FLOKI) continue the heat from 2021.
AI and gaming: The AI sector, such as ARKM and WLD, performs well; the gaming sector sees relatively weaker gains, with capital more concentrated in other hot spots.
L2 and infrastructure: STRK, METIS, and others perform well, but the overall gains are limited.
Macroeconomic support
The pause in interest rate hikes in the second half of 2023 and the expectation of rate cuts in 2024 provide emotional support for the market. Although capital is limited, hot sectors continue to emerge, especially public chains and memes that align with the macroeconomic narrative.
Outlook for 2024 and Beyond: How to Seize the Altcoin Opportunity?
Current market characteristics
In early 2024, BTC and major public chains (such as SOL) will drive the market uptrend, with the meme sector being the first to explode.
ETH is about to gain momentum, and the opportunity for a broad-based altcoin rally is beginning to emerge.
Sectors to watch in the future
Priority sectors: public chains, memes, and L2 projects on ETH.
Potential sectors: AI, modular blockchains, and RWA (real-world assets) are worth watching as emerging narratives.
Cautious sectors: gaming and infrastructure projects have relatively less capital inflow, and attention should be paid to changes in market liquidity.
How to time the market and select projects?
Combining macroeconomic and sector narratives
U.S. macroeconomic policy is key: the timing of rate cuts and liquidity injections determines the overall market trend.
The hot spots in mainstream media and the project selection of exchanges like Binance are important indicators for judging sector heat.
The golden rule of timing
Altcoin rallies typically follow the breakthroughs of BTC and ETH. The current stage is suitable for gradually positioning in hot sectors.
Judging specific projects
For newly launched secondary market projects, choose hot sector coins listed on major exchanges like Binance.
The public chain and meme narratives are enduring, and hot projects are worth long-term tracking.
Conclusion: Grasp the Market Rhythm and Embrace the Opportunities of 2024
Each bull market cycle is driven by the release of liquidity and the accumulation of market hot spots. In 2024, with the shift towards a more accommodative macroeconomic environment, the crypto market will once again face significant opportunities. Whether it's positioning in popular sectors or focusing on emerging narratives, grasping the market rhythm and keeping up with the hot trends will be the key to the next wealth code.
Finally, there is actually a lot more that hasn't been written, such as specific opportunities and decision-making, which are often not something that can be summarized in a single article.
To learn more about the wealth code, or if you have any questions, follow the public account: Caijing Dongchen
