Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)
The process of BTC first hitting $100,000 seems to be temporarily declared a failure.
From last night to this morning, BTC has seen the largest "small correction" in the past half month. OKX market data shows that BTC fell to 92,601.6 USDT this morning, and as of the time of writing (around 10:30, the market data in the following text is taken at this time point), it is temporarily reported at 94,620 USDT, a 24-hour drop of 2.91%.
The reason why it is emphasized as a "small correction" is that although BTC has fallen by more than 6,000 USDT from yesterday's high (98,876 USDT), the maximum drop is less than 5% calculated based on the current $90,000 price benchmark, which is somewhat different from our previous cognitive inertia.
The most intuitive difference in this correction is that Alt-coins did not "immediately bleed out as soon as the big brother retreated" as usual, and the sustained bullish trend of most Alt-coins has been slowed down by this, but the overall decline is not obvious, and some even maintain a small increase.
ETH, which is in a state of catch-up, has "stood firm for once", temporarily reported at 3,452.2 USDT, up 3.27% in 24 hours, and the ecological core projects such as LDO, ENS, and EIGEN have temporarily maintained a strong performance.
SOL, which has just set a new high, has entered a correction phase, temporarily reported at 239.21 USDT, down 4.33% in 24 hours. In addition, possibly affected by the DEXX hacker starting to cash out, the Solana ecosystem meme sector has encountered a general decline, with MOODENG, SLERF, and BONK all dropping more than 10%.
In the US stock market, MicroStrategy (MSTR) closed at $403.45, down 4.37%; Coinbase (COIN) closed at $312.22, up 2.49%; MARA Holdings (MARA) closed at $26.42, up 1.5%.
CoinGecko data shows that the current total crypto market cap has fallen back to $3.41 trillion, a 2.8% contraction in 24 hours. The trading enthusiasm of crypto users has also risen significantly, with the Alternative Fear and Greed Index reporting 79 today, still in the "Extreme Greed" range, but significantly lower than the 90 average of last week.
In terms of derivatives trading, Coinglass data shows that $526 million was liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with long positions still accounting for the majority, but short positions also reaching $141 million. In terms of currencies, BTC had $146 million in liquidations, and ETH had $86.93 million in liquidations.
Causes of the Correction: Profit-taking & Overbought Adjustment
Regarding the short-term correction in BTC, various institutions/traders have given their own market judgments.
Bitfinex mentioned in its latest report that long-term holders (LTH) have started to take profits.
Crypto Banter analyst Kyledoops also mentioned the same data, pointing out that long-term BTC holders have sold 128,000 BTC, although the BTC spot ETF has absorbed 90% of the selling pressure during the same period.
Another view focuses on the overbought structure of the market.
Stephane Ouellette, CEO of crypto investment firm FRNT Financial Inc., said, "Since Trump's election victory, BTC has been overbought, so the stagnation of the rally is a normal phenomenon."
Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Australia Pty, also said the recent BTC pullback is "a much-needed correction to eliminate overbought data, not a reversal or any malicious situation."
Market Outlook: More Optimistic for ETH?
As for the future market trend, the parties hold relatively different views.
Adrian Przelozny, CEO of crypto exchange Independent Reserve, said the current bullish market sentiment will continue until 2025; meanwhile, the well-known trader Eugene has posted that he has taken profits on his long positions and advised investors to be cautious.
In comparison, the subsequent performance of ETH, which has entered the catch-up phase, seems more optimistic.
On the one hand, while the BTC spot ETF has started to see net outflows, ending a week-long net inflow trend, the ETH spot ETF has seen net inflows for two consecutive days, ending a week-long net outflow trend.
Meanwhile, well-known analyst Kaleo posted historical data showing that in the previous bull market, the ETH/BTC ratio bottomed 220 days after the halving, and today is exactly the 220th day after this halving...
Considering that ETH has recently shown a counter-trend rise, a similar script may be played out again.
As for where the capital of the old coins is? Bankless co-founder Ryan Sean Adams just tweeted a clear indication - after Meme father Murad called on Meme coin players in the Chinese community to join the Meme coin super cycle in Chinese, Ryan posted a Chinese tweet on X platform shill ETH, saying "Ethereum is money" (almost like a machine translation of "Ethereum is money"). Previously, he had (also rather emptily) posted that "when demand finally arrives, ETH will experience an unprecedented supply shock, and then Ethereum will be in short supply."
